Chapter 692 [New energy cannot be lost even if it is to engage in traditional energy]
At the annual shareholders' meeting, Lu Ming spoke eloquently about the question about crude oil raised by Brother 8000: "As for the fundamentals, when the oil price is 60 US dollars, you can talk about the fundamentals like this, 70 US dollars can still be discussed, and even 80 US dollars can still be discussed.
If you can take it out and continue talking about it, there will be no problem."
Lu Ming changed the subject again and added: "But if you look at it from a trader's perspective, $80 is a watershed, because if the price goes up, the variables are no longer known fundamentals, so who
Is it a variable? Is it capital expenditure? If you follow this logic and your prices can rise indefinitely, if the market peaks and you need a sudden variable, who would it be?"
At this time, Brother 8000 silently replied: How do I know?
Lu Ming looked around the audience and said: "I think the answer is the Middle East, and furthermore, Sater. In other words, if you ask if the oil price is above US$80 per barrel, the variables involved are geography plus political governance, especially political governance.
This factor is very difficult to determine. For example, when will North America talk to Shater? How? What about the situation in the Middle East?"
"Note that when the oil price reached 87 US dollars in October last year, North America was trying to suppress oil prices. At that time, could you have thought about the relationship between the Kashuki incident and the suppression of oil prices? But it was also the day after the Kashaki incident.
Oil prices have peaked."
All the attendees, when they heard Lu Ming talk about this incident, couldn't help but think of the mysterious disappearance of the famous Saite journalist Gamal Kashuki in Istanbul on October 2, 2018, which aroused international public opinion.
intense attention.
Lu Ming followed his own train of thought and said: "So, it is difficult to quantify the supply, gap, demand, growth or inventory, etc. like the report. You will find that this is not the case at all. The prices on both sides, if the oil price is too low, for example
If it falls below 40, 30 or even 20 US dollars, then you don’t have to consider the fundamentals, you only need to consider other factors. If the current oil price can rise to more than 80 US dollars, then you need to consider geopolitical and political factors.
Already."
"From my personal point of view, for traders now, instead of judging how much oil prices will rise or fall, what they really have to watch is who will intervene? Because in theory, if you follow the fundamentals, it can keep rising.
You can force a position, you can raise it to the sky, but is the final opponent you face the market? Is it the supply and demand balance sheet?"
Lu Ming, who asked a question on his own, then continued in a self-deprecating manner: "Of course not, the opponent you face in the energy market is not the market, but North America, how Sater and the others have changed, and the Kashuki incident
Another problem that will arise in the medium and long term is that if you rely too much on one party's energy security and try to use this energy security to over-structure the structural transformation of energy, this is the wrong path."
"In the process of transforming energy issues to new energy sources, you cannot completely deny traditional energy and slap it to death, nor can you leave it to others to help you control it. Therefore, energy security is very important, and you must keep it in your own hands. Although
The ultimate goal of the world is new energy, but there are huge hidden dangers in energy security in the intermediate process, so traditional energy still has to be invested, and we cannot say that it will just die, because that will cause energy security problems."
Lu Ming nodded. After answering the question, Brother 8000 also sat down. After hearing this, Lao Yang couldn't help but nodded secretly and said concisely: "He is a boss after all, professional!"
…
After about two minutes, the next questioner was a woman. She asked: "...I remember at last year's shareholders' meeting, you said that the domestic capital market is really in the stage of recovery and the formation of leading companies. A year later?
Today we see that many leading companies in the A-share market and blue-chip companies have reached record highs. How should we understand your point of view today, one year later?"
Lu Ming crossed his arms and pressed the documents on the desktop. When he heard this question, he replied with a smile: "It is the understanding of the track. This thing, the so-called leading company, I want to describe is an industry cycle. Generally speaking, the industry life cycle
It has to go through several stages. For China, it should be said that starting from 2015 and 2016, our country's industrial life cycle started. The popular tracks we see now, such as new energy, are the future direction of the industrial life cycle.
"
"But this is a matter of rhythm, and we must pay attention to this rhythm, an industry life cycle. The early stage of the industry is the formation period of the track, and then the valuation starts to be pushed, and then the bubble expands, and then the valuation is destroyed
, and then leave the good ones to survive and start to gain value. This is a complete industry life cycle.”
"If you look at the current stage of China in this way? Probably from the time when our Tiansheng Capital was founded, the direction has been out, and the track has also emerged, and this year we have begun to use valuation, such as technology stocks and semiconductors.
Beifanghua has reached a record high, New Energy's Ningde Times has reached a record high, Biopharmaceutical's Changchun High-tech has reached a record high, Medical Equipment's Marui Medical has reached a record high, and so on."
"After the valuation stage is completed, we must digest part of it, eliminate the dross and eliminate inferior products, leaving truly powerful companies. Only then will the expansion of market value truly follow the value route. This is probably the idea."
At this time, the female questioner couldn't help but ask more: "What about the current valuation? In the long run, does it mean that although the valuation of some emerging industries may be higher in the short term, they are still
Long term value for holding and investing?”
Under normal circumstances, you can't continue to ask questions midway, but since you are a woman, everyone gives you a certain amount of tolerance.
But when many people in the industry heard what she said, especially analysts from some analysis institutions, they rolled their eyes inwardly. The first brother had already said it so straightforwardly, and they were just short of being 100% sure and double-affirming it.
.
At this time, Lu Ming paused for a moment and said with a smile: "How should I put it, this is a future direction, because we don't want to mislead people. We need to have a deep understanding of this cycle. For example, the cycle that started in North America in the 1990s
This round of the Internet is the most typical. At that time, you said that the Internet was the future, absolutely, but the Internet bubble in the millennium destroyed the valuation and probably more than 99% of the companies died."
“So it’s hard to say whether the companies just mentioned can finally break out of the siege. During the valuation stage, the so-called trend is coming. Every concept can be speculated, chickens and dogs can rise to heaven, and there is a frenzy.
But when the valuation starts to be reduced later, it will be a cruel elimination stage, and your company may not survive. This is the key point."
"For example, Yahoo was at its peak back then, but what about now? And now Microsoft and Amazon have survived and become great companies in people's eyes today. You know Microsoft and Amazon now, but a big part of them are still dead because of you.
I don’t know, Yahoo is still famous like this, let alone other things?”
"There are also examples in China. Renren was so prosperous back then, with its peak market value of US$9.4 billion. The US$9.4 billion at that time was very exaggerated. What we know now is that BAT survived and became a giant."
"So only after the elimination stage, companies such as Microsoft, Amazon, and Fuji Xun that are worth your long-term holdings will appear. But this may be very difficult for ordinary investors. Are you sure to enter the Internet?"
The era has come, but your company is gone. In the future, you are sure to enter the new energy era, but your company may be gone too.”
After answering, all the participants couldn't help but nodded, and many people were also thinking.
More and more people have understood the logic of Tiansheng Capital’s “stud” style of new energy since 2016 and have determined the future direction, but they are not sure which company can cut down the valuation and advance to the finals in the elimination stage.
Next Microsoft, Amazon.
Then I will cover the entire market in one fell swoop, focusing on both the primary market and the secondary market.
Looking at it now, people have found that in the field of new energy, every well-known company has the shadow of Tiansheng Capital investment, especially for companies that are already at the top of the industry. Tiansheng Capital is a major shareholder, and it can hold equity at every turn.
