Chapter 965 [Is it really possible for oil prices to fall to negative numbers? 】
Within a day, rumors spread that six of the top ten securities firms in terms of comprehensive performance, plus Cailian Securities, and Tiansheng Capital, a non-bank financial giant, were all involved in the whirlpool of public opinion about mergers and reorganizations, which also made Big A's shareholders
They have a bit of a "live and see each other" flavor.
However, many people believe that although such mutual arrangement and combination sounds a bit bizarre, it also reflects to a certain extent that under the regulatory intention of building an aircraft carrier-level securities firm, securities mergers and acquisitions have indeed opened up the imagination.
With the intention of building an aircraft carrier-level securities firm, mergers and acquisitions and reorganization seem to be one of the important ways to increase scale.
In recent years, mergers and acquisitions in the securities industry have been common. The most recent ones include Zhongxin Securities acquiring Guangzhou Securities, Huachuan Securities becoming the largest shareholder of Titanium Pacific Securities, and Tianfeng Securities acquiring Hengtai Securities, etc.
Such cases also send a signal that the domestic securities market seems to be gradually converging with the European and American securities markets. Large securities companies will occupy market share and market competition will become increasingly concentrated.
There were various rumors in the market today about the merger of securities firms. Lu Ming, who was about to start a video conference, also noticed the news and was following the news about the merger of several major securities firms.
But he didn't expect that the profit would be his own fault. Tiansheng Capital was also caught in the turmoil of mergers and acquisitions and reorganizations among securities companies, but at the moment there were more important things than the profit.
…
At around 16:30 in the afternoon, the video conference was held as scheduled.
Institutional figures attending the meeting include top leaders from many financial institutions such as China Construction, Construction Engineering, and China Recruitment. They are currently very few people who know the truth.
During the video conference, an ICBC leader attending the meeting said: "Comrade Lu Ming, is there such an urgent need to hold this video conference? Is there any major emergency?"
When the attendees received the news, they all raised their throats. The things this master did were shocking. The first thing everyone thought of was that something bad had happened again.
At this time, Lu Ming looked at the images of the participants on the major sub-screens and said in a deep voice: "A few days ago, some foreign media quoted so-called insiders as saying, I don't care how you call it, but this signal shows that foreign countries have noticed that my country's accelerated growth rate work on the National Strategic Petroleum Reserve and requires relevant parties to take action as soon as possible."
Lu Ming added: “In particular, various methods can be used to increase the scale of reserves, including using financial derivatives to lock in lower prices. China Construction Engineering, Construction Engineering, etc. are all participating in many financial derivatives, and there are many ways to play them.
For example, Yuanyoubao has been extremely popular recently."
Everyone could hear the meaning of these words. Lu Ming seemed to have discovered that there might be something wrong with the financial derivatives played internally by several major banks.
After a while, the ICBC leader said: "Is there any problem?"
Lu Ming said with a hint of worry but methodically: "In this game between the two parties, our performance is too strong. The United States will definitely not be able to swallow this breath. We are now involved in such financial derivatives. I am worried that we will be taken advantage of by Western capital."
They were hunted and massacred."
As soon as these words came out, the participants present could not help but be moved. The leader from China Construction Bank couldn't help but said: "How serious is this?"
After a moment, Lu Ming immediately said: "CME Group notified on April 3 that it had modified the IT system code to allow the declaration and transaction of negative oil prices, which took effect from April 5. And on April 8, CME Group
The member units we followed conducted tests, announced the settlement price adjustment plan, and issued an announcement stating that if the main energy prices fall below zero in the next few months, the software will be reprogrammed so that it can handle the negative price problem of related financial products."
Lu Ming added: "It increases the possibility that some energy futures contracts of the New York Mercantile Exchange may be traded at negative prices or zero trading prices. If this happens, all trading and clearing systems of the CME Group will be affected.
It can continue to operate normally, and all file and message formats support such prices, such as WTI crude oil futures, etc."
Having said this, Lu Ming paused for a moment and continued: "With the tightening of crude oil storage pressure in the Cushing area, serious liquidity risks have actually emerged. I personally recommend that bulls get out first, especially the 2005 contract to move positions.
Yue, without the ability to deliver physical goods, has to be careful."
For the oil pipeline in the Cushing area of Oklahoma, Lu Ming has already laid out a secret plan in advance through the Wanxiang Group, but this layout has no problem in undertaking a blocked source oil treasure, but if ICBC and CCB
Once all its products are exhausted, there is really nothing we can do about it.
It is obviously unrealistic to lease all the oil pipelines in the Cushing City area. It is already very difficult to set up this hidden flag.
The 2005 contract is the key. The so-called 2005 contract is the May 2020 contract.
You can avoid this disaster by moving positions to different months, because futures contracts have expiration dates and cannot be held for a long time like stocks. Therefore, if you want to hold a fixed futures position, futures investors must wait until the contract expires.
Before the expiration date, close out the current month's contract and then buy the next month's contract.
For example, before physical delivery, the 2005 contract is closed, the 2006 contract is bought, and the month is moved from May to June. The rollover process in July is to move the position to another month.
The futures market can be roughly divided into two types of players: one is industrial customers and the other is speculators.
Industrial customers are people who are seriously engaged in oil trading, such as the owners of petrochemical plants. They come to do futures for crude oil, hold the futures contract until maturity, and finally make physical delivery.
Speculators are pure futures traders who engage in virtual trading and have no ability to handle crude oil. In order to avoid physical delivery, they will rush to withdraw from the contract before the contract expiration date and then move their positions to the next month.
The current 2005 contract is like a pool. At the beginning, industrial customers and speculators were playing in the pool. There were a lot of big and small fish in the pool, and the water level was also very high.
As time goes by and the contract expiration date approaches, speculative customers will move their positions to another month, close out the 2005 contract and transfer to the 2006 contract. Then the water level of the 2005 contract will continue to drop, and the fish will become more and more active.
few.
If longs want to close their positions, they must find a short position in the market to trade with each other. Only when both parties operate in opposite directions at the same time can the positions be closed.
The closer the contract is to its expiration date, the fewer counterparties that can be liquidated and the worse the liquidity.
Regardless of whether they are crude oil products under China Construction Engineering Corporation, China Construction Engineering Corporation, or China Construction Engineering Corporation, they are not serious industrial customers. They are all domestic crude oil players who are watching the plummeting oil prices and want to rush in to make a windfall. As a platform side, the handling fee
You can also make money, so I'm naturally happy to see it.
But the problem is that they are not industrial customers.
Crude oil is a strategic material, and there is a strict license management system for import and export. China, Engineering, Construction, etc. are all financial banks. They only want to make some money through arbitrage of crude oil, and they have no qualifications for crude oil import and export.
As a non-bank financial institution, Tiansheng Capital also does not have import and export qualifications.
It's just that the higher-ups gave the green light, allowing Tiansheng Capital to lead the strategy behind the scenes to select some companies with import and export qualifications. Most of them were companies that were quickly reorganized and had the nature of the Guo Jia team.
Moreover, Tiansheng Capital itself is still not directly involved, and does not even appear on the shareholder lists of reorganized companies. It exists as a shadow shareholder.
What's more, these major banks have not leased a single oil pipeline in the Cushing area, so they are the first to deliver it.
The video conference was still going on, and all the participants took it seriously when they heard Lu Ming's concerns.
"Comrade Lu Ming, what do you mean... is it really possible for oil prices to fall into negative territory?"
