Chapter 966 [Can only take the meat-cutting plate with tears]
Lu Ming nodded and said: "I can only say that the possibility is very high. Let's not talk about whether it is a conspiracy theory by the CME Group or the United States. Judging from the objective supply and demand relationship and the current environment, the international oil price has to go down.
."
Everyone was surprised. The largest production reduction agreement in history was reached yesterday, which should have stabilized the market. Lu Ming’s completely opposite view also surprised everyone.
Although it was surprising, Tiansheng Capital's record showed that his judgment had to be taken seriously.
At this time, Lu Ming said calmly and orderly: "The global pandemic of the coronavirus has dragged the global economy into the quagmire of recession. The demand for crude oil has shrunk significantly. Affected by the coronavirus, many countries around the world have taken measures such as prevention and quarantine to control the epidemic.
As the epidemic spreads, these measures are continuing to have a serious impact on the economy."
“Tiansheng Capital’s internal analysis estimates that global economic output is expected to decline by around 4% to 4.3% this year. The GDP of major global economies has declined to varying degrees. We estimate that North America and the Eurozone will decline by 4.3% and 8.3% respectively.
%, the recession is deeper than the 2008 financial tsunami, and our country will become the only economy among the world's major economies to achieve positive growth, which can be said to be unique."
As soon as these words came out, all the participants were surprised again.
Lu Ming then further deconstructed: "Although we suffered huge losses in the first quarter, in exchange for the situation being under control and continuing to resume work and production, the world has entered a pandemic and the global supply chain has collapsed. It is expected that our export orders will be reduced in the next year or so.
It will usher in substantial growth, because only Greater China can produce on a large scale and has a complete range of industrial categories. You can just place an order for whatever you want."
“The global economic recession will inevitably lead to a sharp reduction in the crude oil demand market. This is the main reason. Similarly, the latest monthly report analysis within Tiansheng Capital predicts that global oil demand will decrease by 9.3 million barrels per day this year compared with last year.
Oil demand fell by 29 million barrels per day compared with the same period last year."
Having said this, Lu Ming paused for a moment, quickly organized new content in his mind, and then said: "The production reduction agreement reached yesterday is not to boost market demand in a sense. Let's not talk about it. They stabilize oil prices."
The probability of failure of the measures is extremely high.”
You know, this year the country has set a target to import a large amount of oil for strategic reserves. Demand is fundamental. As the world's largest oil import consumer market, Greater China does not stand up and speak out. How can oil prices rise?
The major oil companies and Oros are engaged in an oil price war, with production capacity soaring like crazy. Should the oil produced be dumped into the sea? The pollution would be huge, and the losses would be even more unacceptable, and it would be impossible to dump them.
So demand is the key.
Lu Ming continued: "Whether it is OPEC+'s first two-month production cut of 9.7 million barrels per day next month, or the production cut of 8 million barrels per day in the second half of this year, the production reduction agreement is only to stabilize oil prices, not to stimulate
Oil prices are rising and demand is rising."
"The reason why I say this is because of the international crude oil price war last month, which significantly increased crude oil production and caused crude oil prices to continue to plummet. Now that the production reduction plan has been reached, it was launched against the background of a sharp drop in demand, and even more
It's like correcting Sater and Oras' previous behavior of increasing production regardless of the objective laws of the market."
At this moment, Lu Ming paused for a moment. The attendees saw that in Lu Ming's video, he was holding a tablet, then put it in front of the camera to show it to the attendees, and laughed at the same time:
"Please see, WTI crude oil futures prices have fallen from +7.64% in early trading to more than -1% at this moment, and Brent crude oil has also fallen from +5.59% to more than -2%."
A leader who attended the meeting suddenly sighed with emotion and laughed in a mocking tone: "You businessmen are really thieves."
"Heroes see the same thing." Lu Ming smiled and added: "It seems that a group of smart traders in the market also know that there is still a big gap between the so-called production reduction plan and market demand. At present, the global Y
The situation still has not reached an obvious turning point, and the global supply chain and industrial chain are still at a standstill. In the context of economic recession, the production reduction plan will not boost market demand, and the current trend of oil prices has been proven."
Lu Ming still smiled and said: "The oil price is really going to reach a turning point, and it depends on our attitude. This year, our Tiansheng Capital task alone is to obtain the purchasing quota of 500 million barrels of crude oil. The whole country may have to purchase 500 million barrels of crude oil."
Soaring to the 1 billion barrel indicator, this is a major super demand-side expectation in the crude oil market."
Obviously, under the current situation, almost no country or region can afford 1 billion barrels.
But in Greater China, yes!
Helping oil-producing countries to support oil prices cannot be in vain. The Greater China market can absorb the surge in production capacity in the first quarter by big dogs, bears, etc., thereby offsetting the additional surge in the first quarter that goes against the objective market conditions.
Only with production capacity can we find a normal market balance point on both sides of supply and demand.
But the wholesale price must be adopted, especially the 500 million barrel mission quota obtained by Tiansheng Capital. Lu Ming will not be a big enemy. He will not buy if the other party's asking price is too high. Let's see who suffers more.
With so much oil produced, the cost of barrels and storage is unbearable. Barrels are almost more expensive than oil. What's more, the storage is almost full now, and production is still happening there.
Tiansheng Capital is indeed eager to exchange the green paper tickets in its hands for physical resources, but it cannot show it easily. At this time, it is more important to be calm, because some people are more anxious.
It is worth mentioning that Tiansheng Capital implements the strategy of "buying globally, buying globally". Those are serious industrial clients who are rushing for physical delivery, so the strategy is different.
Currently, many participants in the video conference are speculators who have participated in too many financial derivatives and have no physical delivery capabilities.
The meeting lasted until around 18:00 and ended, and everything that needed to be said and suggestions were given. As for whether to adopt this suggestion and whether to implement it or not, Lu Ming could not control it.
As the video conference ended, the leaders of each industry held internal meetings to discuss the matter.
After some discussions, China Construction Bank, ICBC and others decided to immediately move their positions to another month and start closing positions on the same day. By tomorrow, April 15th, they will complete the liquidation of the 2005 contract and move the position to the 2006 contract.
The current liquidity of the contract is very good, and it is easy to close the position and withdraw.
But not everyone agrees with Lu Ming's point of view and adopts the implementation. As expected, Yuanyoubao still did not do it. Its superior organization, the central bank, also participated in the video conference. It felt that closing the position late was not a big problem, but regarded closing the position late as a problem.
Selling point.
This operation...
Brother Yi shook his head after seeing it, what else could he do? There was really nothing he could do, so he could only take Yuanyoubao's meat plate with tears in his eyes.
