"So, when randomly choosing one from three, the probability of me choosing the wrong one must be less than the right one. But due to rule restrictions, I can't choose two cups, AC, as my answer at the same time, and he eliminated cup A at this time.
This action allows me to choose C while gaining a probability equivalent to choosing two cups at the same time."
"I seem to understand a little bit... His behavior of helping you eliminate wrong answers is not an insignificant and insignificant action, because he is equivalent to giving you the right to choose two cups at the same time!"
"Yes, to give another extreme example, if this game uses not three cups, but a hundred cups, and I choose one of them, there are 99 cups left, and he eliminates 98 of the errors
The answer is until there are only two cups left on the field. At this time, should I stick to the original answer, or should I immediately change to the one in his hand that has not been eliminated?" Zhang Ke said in a persuasive way.
"Of course it's the one in his hand, because the chance of you guessing the correct answer right from the beginning is one percent, which is very small. That means there is a high probability that there are sea flowers hidden in the remaining cups, and you have known it for a long time.
He who gave the answer eliminated all wrong answers, so the cup left in his hand has a 99% chance of being correct." Yuan Mengmeng suddenly realized:
"Using this situation to explain it makes it clear to me. After all, excluding one out of three is much easier to understand than excluding ninety-eight out of a hundred."
"Yes, this issue is most likely to be confused when you choose one of three, and it is easiest for people to have the same illusion as choosing one of two. But once you figure it out, there is no longer any blinding effect.
That’s it.” After Zhang Ke finished speaking, he glanced at the bartender in front of him and said:
"After such a big detour, what exactly do you want to express? You should have said it now about the tip you promised me as a prize."
"As expected of you, Mr. Zhang Ke." The bartender suppressed the smile on his face, but he didn't seem too serious, just a little more serious than before, "Even if I lose most of my memory, even if I have no memory of the past,
The knowledge and theories you have learned are almost forgotten, but your brain still instinctively records the correct information."
"What - what do you mean by that?" Zhang Ke felt that there was something in the other person's words and asked.
"The three-door problem - in fact, this is the essence of the little game just now. It is not a trick or a gambling trick, but a classic probability problem in the field of mathematics and one of the most common probability illusions." The bartender said calmly.
said:
"Statistics prove that if people have not received this knowledge in advance, the probability of being confused on the three questions is as high as 90%. Even if they are not confused by one-half of the blindness, they will finally choose to change.
The answer, but someone like you whose logic is so clear and can even draw inferences from one instance and explain it to others is almost always a natural genius."
"You want to say that I am a genius? Although my memory is very incomplete, but judging from my current life situation, it is probably impossible. I don't think my brain is that outstanding." Zhang Ke said truthfully, he did
He doesn't think he is a fool, and may be more flexible and resourceful than most, but he knows that this is far from the so-called top-notch genius level.
"Your self-perception is very accurate. I really don't mean to say that you are a genius. This can only show that you have been exposed to similar theories before playing this game. Even if your memory has been washed away, your intuition does not.
It will deceive you, it is the best guarantee to help you find the correct answer." The bartender said, "This is what I want to say to you."
"Wait a minute - what do you want to say to me? Please make it clear."
"Didn't we just say that if you win this game, as a bonus, I will give you clues about Shanghai Flower Bar?"
"...Yes, what next?"
"This game itself is the clue I give you." The smile appeared on the bartender's face again, but it was not a malicious smile. On the contrary, from his clear eyes, he could see some sincerity and kindness.
expect:
"In other words, the answer you just got is the jackpot you got as a reward after winning--that is, the clue about Shanghai Flower Bar."
"What do you mean? You're basically deadbeat." Before Zhang Ke could say anything, Yuan Mengmeng, who was listening on the side, said with some dissatisfaction, "If the game itself is a prompt, wouldn't it?
It doesn't matter whether Zhang Ke loses or wins, so what's the so-called bonus if he wins? You just don't want to tell him."
"No - I seem to understand what you mean." However, Zhang Ke said thoughtfully, "If the game itself is the clue, then the result of winning or losing will be the same. This does not make sense - unless, as long as
You can win only when certain conditions are met, and this condition is to understand the so-called 'three-door problem'."
"Yes, that's it. I'm glad that you can think of this on your own immediately. I believe that the day when you return to Shanghai Flower Bar will not be far away anymore." The bartender said very politely, "The three-door problem is me.
The clearest clue given to you is also the key to the Shanghai Flower Bar. As for where the corresponding keyhole is and how to use it, it depends on how you control your own destiny."
"Aren't there any clearer clues?" Zhang Ke said with a helpless smile, "To be honest, I originally expected you to give me a specific address, a phone number, or at least a set of hint keys pointing to them.
Words—I didn’t expect it to be such an abstract methodology.”
"I'm sorry, the authority given to me by the bar only goes so far. After all..." The bartender seemed to hesitate for a moment, a different look flashed across his face, and after a moment he regained his composure and said, "After all, you
You have committed acts of serious betrayal to us. Although there may be hardships involved, your reassessment must be extremely strict."
"Okay, I have conveyed everything that needs to be said, so the branch that opened on this subway should be closed temporarily." The bartender put away the tablecloths and bottles, packed them together, and stuffed them into a
It may not seem big, but it can somehow fit a lot of wine vessels into the package bag.
"Wait a minute, before you leave, don't you have any advice or advice for me?" Zhang Ke thought for a while and said, "We must have known each other in the past, right? You are probably very aware of the time I am facing now.
Chapter completed!