The principal has scolded and beaten him. Now he will no longer discuss the issue of Zhou Wen's murder, but will go straight to today's topic.
"The Military Commission has approved the expansion of your teaching corps into a brigade-level unit. But you want to set up an aviation force and also transfer the second regiment of the teaching corps from the small battalion to Pukou. What are your plans? I want to listen to you.
The truth."
Zhou Wen pondered for a moment, then solemnly said to the principal: "Principal, do you think that the decisive battle between China and Japan will break out in a few years?"
The principal did not expect that this boy would ask him this question first, but he knew that this question must be related to Zhou Wen's plan, so he said: "According to the analysis of the Military Commission's Staff Department, there should be a buffer period of seven to eight years.
"
Zhou Wen knew that the principal did not say it casually, but based on factors such as Japan's current economic and military development and the military's preparations, as well as the discussion opinions of the German military advisory group that has arrived in China, the Military Commission Staff Department concluded
a conclusion drawn.
Judging from the current situation in Japan, its domestic economy is still deeply affected by the world economic crisis. Before September 18, Japanese industry mainly relied on light industry and cheap labor as its core competitiveness. The global Great Depression severely damaged the fragile Japanese economy, and Japan has
It is an extremely resource-poor country and relies heavily on imports of oil, iron ore, coal, etc.
From 1929 to 1931, Japan's total import and export volume dropped sharply, a large number of banks and industrial and commercial enterprises went bankrupt, the total industrial output value dropped by 32.9%, the total agricultural output value also dropped by 40%, and the rural debt exceeded the entire gross agricultural production value.
These data have been reported by famous international business newspapers.
This has caused the vast majority of Japanese farmers to be on the verge of collapse under the weight of debt. Most Japanese people are hungry and have to resort to selling their sons and daughters. A large number of young rural women are sold to big cities such as Tokyo.
It can be said that at that time, Japan's domestic economy was in a depression, people's livelihood was in decline, political corruption, and people were panicked. The lives of the people at the bottom were in dire straits. The political conflicts in the entire country were getting worse day by day, and internal strife was unstable.
The Japanese government cannot find a solution.
At that time, 70% of the officers and soldiers of the Japanese army came from rural areas. Many of the girls who were trafficked in Tokyo were sisters of Japanese soldiers.
Faced with the miserable lives of their relatives and people, lower-level Japanese military officers began to break their previous silence and put constant pressure on the Japanese government, which was still controlled by political parties at the time.
The solution they proposed was to occupy Northeast China.
Ishihara Kanji, the mastermind of the September 18th Incident, wrote in "My Views on the Manchu and Mongolian Issues": "The agriculture in Manchuria and Mongolia is sufficient to solve our country's food problem. We can establish a large number of small businesses and farms in Manchuria and Mongolia, which are rich in resources.
It can help our country get rid of the current livelihood problems of a large number of unemployed people and rural bankruptcies."
In the eyes of Ishihara, occupying Northeast China is a clever move to solve Japan's domestic problems.
Two months before the September 18th Incident, a survey of college students at the University of Tokyo showed that 88% of college students supported the use of military force to invade Northeast China.
It was precisely because of these domestic supporters and the guidance of public opinion that the Kwantung Army unilaterally launched an armed invasion of Northeast China without authorization from the military and government.
The subsequent Songhu Incident launched by the Japanese army was to divert international public attention and international pressure from the Japanese occupation of Northeast China.
The Japanese army attacked Jehol and the Great Wall in order to consolidate its rule in the Northeast and further expand its strategic depth in the Northeast.
It can be said that the three military confrontations that broke out between China and Japan in less than two years from September 18th to the present were all for Japan to completely annex Northeast China and thus find new economic development power and raw materials for Japan.
, carried out with the big goal of completely getting rid of its domestic economic crisis.
In other words, Japan currently has no plans to fully annex China because it still needs to further digest and develop the results achieved in Northeast China.
According to the normal economic development rate of a semi-industrialized country, after receiving a large amount of food and resources from Northeast China, Japan will need 7 more years to completely get rid of the impact of the economic crisis, embark on the track of rapid development, and prepare for all-out war.
-8 years.
This is not only a unilateral judgment made by China, but also a conclusion reached by Western powers after various analyses.
But, will the Japanese really give China that long time to prepare?
"Principal, I know from my humble position that the timing of the full-scale war between China and Japan was determined by senior staff officers and military elites after careful investigation and analysis, a lot of time and energy, and various information provided by German friends.
That’s the conclusion we came to.”
"From a common sense perspective, I also believe that this time judgment should be roughly correct. However, the outbreak of war can never be predicted according to common sense. For example, in the last world war, although the whole world knew that the German Empire and Britain and France would have a war, both sides also
Preparations for various wars are being made for this."
"Moreover, analysts from various countries at the time believed that the war was likely to break out in the period from 1916 to 1918. Why was this judgment made? It was based on the time span of war preparations in European countries at that time."
"But when Archduke Ferdinand, the Crown Prince of Austria-Hungary, was assassinated in Sarajevo on June 28, 1914, were they prepared for war?"
"The conclusion is of course no. But why did the war break out so unexpectedly with the assassination as the trigger?"
"It was because both sides had no room for negotiation or retreat at that time. Regardless of whether they were ready or not, they had to resort to war."
Zhou Wen's words made the principal look at him with admiration.
He never expected that this little bandit who had not studied for a few years and had no strange experiences before joining the army would actually have such a high-level view.
Even the principal has not thought deeply about some of the views he is talking about now.
"Actually, I am thinking that the tense relationship between China and Japan is very similar to the situation between Germany, Britain and France during World War I. Although the demands and conflicts between China and Japan are different from those of other countries during World War I, they are no longer the same.
There is no room for change, and ultimately it can only be resolved by war."
"The Japanese government has actually already planned to go to war with China, because their lack of resources has greatly restricted their economic development. In other words, their economic development has reached a bottleneck. If they want to continue to
To move forward and catch up with the industrial and economic levels of Western powers, we must have abundant resources and a broad market as support."