However, why did Sun Dahai suddenly start to enter the market again? You know, most of the time for betting has passed, and he has never even opened his own account before."
Whether Sun Dahai operates or not has nothing to do with Brent. Anyway, his bet with Brent is just a bet on the points of the Hang Seng Index.
But for Luo Wanli, there were many variables, so he quickly asked Taylor for advice.
"Don't worry, I will analyze things one by one in the chronological order of their development."
Taylor was a little dissatisfied with Luo Wanli for interrupting him and directly criticized him.
Taylor plays a small role as an information officer and analyst in the Cruze family's economic advisory group. He only has the right to make suggestions, and it is up to him whether to adopt them or not.
He came to Xiangjiang to collect information, and he happened to be caught by Brent. He asked him to come over to help analyze the prospects of the gambling. He was treated as an expert.
"As for Brent's bet, it is actually a continuation of this idea. Sun is bearish on the Hang Seng Index, so he agreed to the bet after Brent took out the land he needed as a bet.
As for the bet on the position of the Hang Seng Index, it is because both of them want to simplify the process. In fact, one person is bullish and the other is bearish.
Most of the time has passed between the two bets. During the period, the Hang Seng Index reached a maximum of 3949 points, which is nearly seven percentage points higher than the benchmark point of this bet of 3700 points. As for Luo Nilai, who has already made profits, I believe that the other party can too.
Guessed.
In other words, in these two bets, you both have already established a considerable advantage, and your chances of winning are quite high.
Under such a disadvantageous situation, facing such a huge bet, the other party still sticks to his heart. To be honest, this makes me admire the other party."
"Taylor, Sun originally said he would not perform the operation. Now he has broken his promise and entered the field. Why do you still say he sticks to his heart?" Brent asked.
"It's different. When I say he sticks to his heart, I mean that he is determined to be bearish on the Hang Seng Index. As for his entry into the market today, he just wants to make up for a loophole, rather than change the plan he made.
Luo, let me ask you a question, if you sell all the stocks in your hands now, can you make a profit and win this bet?"
Luo Wanli didn't even need to think about it, and answered directly, "Of course. Since I dare to bet on the stock market returns with him, it means that I have enough confidence in my own ability to make profits in the stock market. The market is now up three percentage points, and I can't
You can’t even beat the market, right?”
Taylor nodded and said: "Yes, so if you come out of the game now, after removing various expenses, you can already win steadily. Then why don't you just go out and wait for the deadline to win the bet directly?
?”
"It's easy for me to enter the market. I'm afraid that at some point, Sun Dahai will suddenly enter the market. If I buy a dark horse, my advantage of winning will be gone."
Taylor said: "According to what you just relayed, Sun Dahai's friends were actually worried that you would be like this, so they suggested Sun Dahai enter the competition.
Unexpectedly, Sun Dahai followed his good deeds and entered the market immediately after discovering this big loophole, thus sealing the loophole.
When I say I admire him, I mean that even under such circumstances, he can still operate according to his own ideas. Today, he placed a heavy position in short contracts on the Hang Seng Index futures, which is a bet that the market will fall in the short term.
In this way, the bet between you and him is that you play your game and he plays his. You pursue the buying and selling interest rate difference on individual stocks, while he waits for the market to correct. In the end, who wins and who loses? I really can’t say.
clear."
"You mean, Luo might lose? What about me?" Brent was a little anxious.
"Brent, don't worry. Today Sun entered the market to place an order, and now the two bets between the three of you have undergone some changes.
Brent, if Sun Dahai wants to beat you, he can only hope that on October 30th, the settlement price of the Hang Seng Index will be lower than 3,700 points. Therefore, you still have an advantage of more than three points. I think this advantage is still relatively large.
of.
The key point for Luo's current bet is actually the average price at which Sun opened his position today, which is about 3835 points.
If the market does not pull back in the half month before the deadline, then you will definitely win, without any objection. If the market pulls back significantly, then you will definitely lose, and there will be no surprises.
If the market remains flat and fluctuates during this period, then it is necessary to calculate the profits obtained by each of them in detail, and whoever loses may win."
Luo Wanli slapped his forehead hard and said in annoyance: "How could it become like this? Originally, I had a great chance of winning!"
Taylor glanced at Luo Wanli with disdain and said, "Don't you even know how one bets ten in stock index futures? People bear large risks, and their expected returns will naturally increase accordingly. If you dare to bet on stock index futures when the betting begins,
If you make a big move to build a position, I'm afraid that no matter what the other party does now, it won't affect the outcome of your bet."
Brent asked a question: "What would happen if Luo now operates in the same way as Sun Dahai?"
Taylor shook his head directly: "Can you guarantee that you will know all Sun's operations immediately?
Please note that what I said is that any operation must be known immediately.
Only in this way can we completely copy Sun's operation and make the two people's operations form a hedge, so that whether they make profits or loses, they will remain absolutely consistent."
The conditions Taylor proposed sound easy, but are almost impossible to implement.
Luo Wanli knew very well that, let alone Aya, the relationship with Sun Dahai was only half-acquainted. Even if it were Feng Lina, it would be impossible for her to do this.
Unless Luo Wanli bribed the senior management of Dafu Securities, or from a technical perspective, he immediately transmitted the information about Sun Dahai's every operation.
However, in this case, the cost may far exceed the gambling profit (10 million Hong Kong dollars).
Moreover, there is another item at the end of the bet, which is the procedure for the notary to verify the transaction information of both parties. When two people perform almost identical operations, the transaction time lags behind Luo Wanli, which must be impossible to explain clearly.
Otherwise, as a professional, Taylor has a very sharp vision and his evaluation is also very accurate.
Today, Sun Dahai easily entered the market and went short. No matter what the final outcome was, at least he had gained Taylor's admiration and put Luo Wanli in a dilemma.
Indeed, Luo Wanli's mind is a little confused now. Ten million Hong Kong dollars is nothing to Sun Dahai, but to Luo Wanli, it is already the majority of his property. Under the heavy pressure, Luo Wanli's mentality is unbalanced. This