Chapter 1051 True Probability and False Probability
After coming up with this idea, Qiao Liang was startled by himself at first, thinking that he might have thought too much, but the more he turned around and analyzed, he felt that this possibility did exist.
Everything Mr. Pei does must have deep meaning!
For the game "Fitness Battle", how the lottery system is implemented actually does not necessarily have much impact on the profitability of the game itself.
Even if it is replaced by a regular lottery, the players who are supposed to draw will still draw.
And since Mr. Pei has so radically brought the lottery system to its current state, there must be some intention behind it.
This intention is not yet visible, but it is likely that Mr. Pei anticipated the possible reactions of the players.
Therefore, if you want to truly analyze Mr. Pei's intentions, you still have to start with the reactions of the players.
Qiao Liang immediately searched for posts about the "Fitness Battle" lottery on the Internet and conducted profile analysis on different user groups.
He quickly found many cases.
Because the players of "Fitness Battle" seem to have a much higher interest in posting orders than other games.
Whether they are very lucky or very unlucky, they are all very keen to post the results of the lottery online.
If we analyze it according to the traditional krypton gold games, the player groups who can top up money are generally divided into micro krypton, medium krypton and heavy krypton. The boundaries are relatively blurred and can be converted into each other, but generally the dividing line is based on the amount of money charged.
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But in "Fitness Battle", this distinction seems to be less feasible.
For example, if a person deposits 100,000 yuan, keeps a few of his favorite orders after a while, and refunds all the others, and only spends more than 1,000 yuan in the end, then this is considered a profit.
Or is it heavy on krypton?
Although this situation is relatively rare, it definitely occurs.
Qiao Liang read a lot of cases on the Internet and found that they were really diverse and full of surprises.
For example, someone drew five ten-shot draws in a row, and the result was blue sky and white clouds, and a purple item was produced, but the result was not what he wanted.
So this guy was dumbfounded and refunded everything.
If it were in other games, he might have to ask customer service for an explanation, but since "Fitness Fight" can refund the money easily, he should come back after three days.
There was also someone who drew three ten-consecutive draws in a row, and all of them were oranges. Originally, he planned to pick the ten-consecutive draw with the best result and keep it. The other two ten-consecutive draws were all refunded, but now there is no refund.
Show off excitedly online.
There is also the most bizarre one. I actually smoked more than 50 ten-draws in a row, but I kept the one that exploded two oranges in a row. All the others were refunded, and I proudly posted a post calling myself "The King of Wool"
"King", I suggest that everyone learn from themselves and make Tengda bald.
Some people even regard this lottery system as a testing ground. Anyway, everything can be refunded. After drawing and refunding, it is equivalent to spending no money, and you can enjoy the addiction of lottery.
These weird situations are never seen in the lottery systems of other games.
Even if players of other games post their results, I'm afraid they will only get two results: "European" and "Non". Of course, the European ones may be very European, but the non-exclusive ones may not necessarily be too bad.
"Tengda's lottery mechanism... seems to be a real probability?"
Qiao Liang suddenly had an idea and listed the differences between the traditional lottery mode and the "Fitness Fight" lottery mode on the document.
"True probability" is relative to "false probability".
If you think that the traditional lottery model is purely based on probability, you are totally wrong.
Qiao Liang also consciously gained a lot of game design knowledge, and he knew very well that the lottery in the game was never a true probability, but a false probability.
Of course, false probabilities are not always done by merchants to make money, but sometimes also to ensure the player’s feelings.
This requires relatively basic knowledge of probability to understand.
For example, a merchant sets the explosion rate of a certain product at 20%, which is already very high.
So, if the number of players is large enough and the sample is large enough, the number of players who draw this product for the first time will be about 20%, which is easy to understand.
However, the probability of not drawing even five times is the multiplication of five 80%, which is 0.32768, which means that about 30% of players will not draw five times.
The probability of not getting one even after ten draws is ten 80% multiplied, which is about 0.1, which is 10%.
If a prop with a 20% explosion rate is calculated based on probability, 10% of players will not even draw it ten times.
And if you add more, the probability that you won't win even twenty times is 1%.
Assuming that 100,000 people participated in this lottery, 1% is 1,000 people.
There are a thousand people who can't draw anything with a 20% explosion rate even twenty times. Can they accept it?
This is obviously inconsistent with their intuition: wouldn't something with a 20% explosion rate definitely come out after five times?
But probability is something that varies from person to person. A 20% explosion rate does not mean that it will happen five times, or even ten times.
The probability cannot be precise to a certain individual. Only when the data sample is large enough, the real probability will be infinitely close to the theoretical data.
In other words, if you draw it once, anything can happen; but if you draw it 100 million times, the probability of it will be infinitely close to 20 million times.
But people who don’t understand the basic knowledge of probability don’t know this.
It is conceivable that if these thousand people draw twenty times and fail to draw anything with an explosion rate of 20%, they will definitely go to the forum to cause trouble. How much pressure will there be from public opinion by then?
And most of them are medium or heavy players. After having such a lottery experience, will they participate in activities again in the future? If they don’t uninstall the game directly, they are considered good-tempered.
Therefore, in order to avoid this situation from happening, many game manufacturers will set false probabilities in the game.
In other words, for an item with a 20% explosion rate, if the player does not draw it out the first time, the explosion rate will increase a bit the second time. If it has not been drawn out by the fifth time, it will be 100% sure to come out.
This ensures that no matter how bad the player's luck is, there is always a guarantee.
From this point of view, false probability does have a certain effect in protecting players.
But the problem is that since the game developers have made false probabilities, it is certainly impossible to only protect the interests of the players. Naturally, they also have to protect their own interests.
For example, if a very precious prop worth tens of thousands of dollars, even if the explosion rate is 0.1%, if 100,000 players participate in the lottery, there will be 100 lucky people who will be lucky and more than 90 lucky people.
The baby comes out twice...
If it is an unlimited number of precious props, then it doesn't matter.
But what if in order to maintain the value of this prop, the official wants to limit it to 500 or 1,000 copies?
According to this drawing method, those who actually get the props are not necessarily the people who have paid the most, but mostly the real European emperors.
Maybe the wealthy people charge up thousands of dollars but still don't pay out, while some people get out immediately.
If these European Emperors draw away money, the rich man will be mentally unbalanced regardless of whether he draws out the money, because even if the rich man draws money, he must have spent far more money than the European Emperor.
Luck and ability are not balanced.
Therefore, game companies often set a prerequisite at this time, that is, after spending XX amount of money in total, it is possible to draw this thing, and the more money you charge, the greater the chance of drawing it.
This is also in line with the psychological expectations of most players: I only drew it once, and it was normal for me to not get it; if a rich man drew it dozens of times, it was reasonable for him to get it.
But in fact, this was all arranged by the game manufacturers through false probabilities.
In this way, game companies ensure the consumption experience of local tycoons, thereby preserving their consumption interests, and naturally also preserve their own profits and reputation.
What was sacrificed was the interests of the small group of pure European emperors, but that didn't matter, because they didn't know that they were actually pure European emperors, and they didn't know that they could actually draw this precious item with one shot, and they thought it was normal that they didn't draw it out.
of.
Moreover, players have no way to verify the authenticity of the data, because both the detailed rules of the lottery and the data after the lottery are in the hands of the game company, and the players have no channels to contact them.
Mr. Pei's lottery model is obviously a real probability, which means that 20% is 20%. It doesn't matter if there are a thousand people who can't even draw twenty times. I will give you a full refund and that will be it.
After an in-depth comparison of the two different lottery modes, Qiao Liang suddenly came up with an idea.
"Could it be that Pei always wants to deconstruct the traditional lottery model through this new lottery model? Let some players realize that the lottery they think is only conducted within the framework drawn by the game company?"
"And Tenda's lottery actually breaks this framework proactively and gives players a real probability that is absolutely fair, but a little uncomfortable?"
"Then...this is an almost impossible task!"
Qiao Liang couldn't help but be in awe of Mr. Pei.
False probability has long appeared with the lottery system. Even before many games have lottery functions, some websites and APPs have already done so.
But after so many years, few people have questioned this matter.
On the contrary, more and more players have become accustomed to it and are keen on lottery draws. More and more businesses have developed various lottery draws that apparently take care of players' feelings, but are actually more convenient for them to make money.
For game companies, the lottery system is equivalent to a stable money tree, so that whether it is a client game, a mobile game, or even a lot of businesses casually organizing activities, they have started to draw prizes frequently.
If someone makes a profit, then someone will naturally lose.
Game companies like to do lottery activities so much, they definitely don’t lose money.
So isn’t it obvious who lost?
Mr. Pei’s lottery system is obviously meant to pierce this veil, tell players the cruel truth, and change this status quo!
Of course, the current situation is not optimistic.
Because the vast majority of players do not have relevant knowledge of game design, and it is human nature to like to try their luck and take advantage.
Many people like lotteries. If you tell them seriously about probabilities, expected values, or that lotteries are a scam, they won't listen at all. They must think that they are lucky, or even be scammed and spend a lot of money.
After pulling out a pile of garbage, he insisted that he was just unlucky this time and that he would be able to pull out what he wanted next time.
And ordinary merchants will obviously try their best to tell consumers that the lottery is a kind of preferential activity. Players and merchants are mutually beneficial, and a lottery is very cost-effective.
At most, a very small line of text is used to remind you in the lottery: the lottery is risky, and you need to be cautious when recharging.
But this kind of reminder will definitely be very small, and most people will not take it to heart at all.
After this analysis, Qiao Liang came to a rather surprising conclusion.
"Mr. Pei's behavior, isn't it cutting off all sources of money from the lottery?"
"Although it may not be successful, Mr. Pei is indeed working hard to use the lottery system of "Fitness Battle" to contrast other lottery draws, so that everyone can see the facts of the so-called lottery more clearly."
"Even if not many people will appreciate it in the end, and even if it attracts crazy attacks from other companies that hope to make money from the lottery, I don't care."
“It’s really well-intentioned!”
Qiao Liang couldn't help but sigh, only Mr. Pei could do this kind of thing, he was willing to do it and dared to do it!
It's just that most people are too slow to react and don't realize Mr. Pei's good intentions at all.
A video must be produced to explain the key points carefully, so that Mr. Pei’s hard work cannot be wasted!
The lottery activities of Zhitou Company and Longyu Group seem to be very conscientious, but they only appear conscientious when compared with other lottery draws that are extremely dark.
In fact, it's still a different medicine. Even if it's 30% off, it's still trying to find ways to make money from players!
Compared with Tengda’s approach, what’s the point of conscience?