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Chapter 2522 Murphy’s Law

Existence

The avatar of the Nuclear Bomb Buddha will travel around the world as a mortal to spread his ideas and allow humans to cultivate into nuclear bombs. However, this will take a long time, and Duran believes that the world will one day return to peace.

"We need to make the world a better place without any framework." This is what Duran said.

"Yes." Tanya agreed very much with Duran's words.

The world will get better. Regarding the attack by the Federal State, the Empire did not make a big fuss. It just said that it was an unauthorized action by a small group of militarists and tried to control the situation within a certain range. The Federal State obviously also realized that relying on

It is impossible to defeat the empire with just one strategic weapon. After all, this is not the second dimension.

Human beings in the second dimension always like to use decisive weapons to decide the outcome in a battle, and these decisive weapons are usually picked up by high school students, who are ultimately tasked with saving all mankind and reversing the unfavorable situation of the war.

It has to be said that only small countries with limited resources will believe that this kind of final weapon is a naive fantasy and useless to big countries. In fact, the real war between countries is based on comprehensive strength.

and the endurance of the people, a single decisive weapon is of little value.

Unfortunately, the foundation of the second dimension is a small country with few people, so decisive battle weapons have often become the key point in turning defeat into victory in the second dimension. Even high school students have to wear armor and go into battle again and again, and have to bear the heavy responsibility of saving mankind.

But in the face of a country like the Empire, which has strong comprehensive strength, people's cohesion, and organizational power that are among the best in the world, if the Federation still wants to take a decisive battle to determine the outcome with weapons, it will definitely not work.

The Federation also realizes that it is impossible to decide the outcome in one battle. If a war breaks out, they will face the absolute combat power of the Empire. The Empire and the Federation are bordering each other. If a war breaks out, the Federation will not be happy.

Therefore, in the long run, the Federation, Hezhou Kingdom, and Lehi Kingdom will form a powerful situation. It is irrational for any two parties to go to war now. They are just making wedding clothes for others.

And with the emergence of religious nuclear bombs and true nuclear bombs, the future peace will be very long, until a common enemy of mankind appears. Maybe it is a virus, maybe an alien, maybe a cancer of mankind, or maybe it is a god.

By then, maybe, it's possible, maybe humanity will be able to achieve great unity.

In short, everyone can work hard in this direction.

"Everything has good and bad qualities. We cannot expect that all the good parts will be taken up by us and the bad parts will be transferred to others. People who think like this will definitely suffer. All we can do is bear the mistakes again and again.

And try to make everything develop for the better. Since we know Murphy's Law, we should be alert and prevent Murphy's Law from appearing."

Murphy's Law, everything will develop towards bad expectations. In fact, the reason why this law exists is because everyone has anticipated the possibility of failure before doing things, but when doing things, they take a chance and do not try their best.

Troubleshoot errors.

When this law was proposed, it was because NASA designed seventeen expensive devices. As long as one device was running, it would be successful, but in the end, all seventeen devices were down, and they still appeared on the same unstable line.

This is obviously a fluke mentality. They knew that the equipment was unstable, so they manufactured seventeen devices. But in fact, they did not rule out the root cause of the instability. They were just lucky enough to think that the more equipment they had, the more likely they would be successful, even if it was a small probability.

Happened. But in the end it turned out that this idea was completely self-deception.

Seventeen pieces of equipment were damaged for the same reason, and the mission completely failed, thus giving birth to Murphy's Law.

But in fact, people realize the possibility of failure when they think of Murphy's Law, so they should work hard to eliminate the reasons for failure, instead of replicating the possibility of failure seventeen times and leaving the victory or defeat to luck. This is wrong.

of.

Some people say that this is a question of probability. The probability of heads and tails when a coin is tossed once is 50-50, but if a coin is tossed a hundred times, the probability of heads and tails is no longer 50-50 at the 100th time.

.

Then the probabilistic person will explain this reason plausibly, why tossing once is a 50-50 result, but tossing a hundred times is not a 50-50 result.

The reason for tossing a 50-50 result is that we know very little data and have collected very little information. We only know that a coin has two sides, so naturally it is a 50-50 result.

If you toss a hundred times, you will collect more data and information. The previous ninety-nine coin tosses have provided new information. It is no longer just a coin with two sides. The characteristics of this coin have been tested ninety-nine times.

Repeated use is shown, so the probability of the last time is not 50-50, but is closely related to the data collected in the previous ninety-nine times. For example, if the previous ninety-nine times were all positive, then the last one may also be positive.

, it can even be deduced from this that both sides of this coin may be heads and no tails at all.

It is impossible to know whether the two sides of the coin are all heads and all tails by just tossing it once. But after tossing it ninety-nine times, it is possible to know. This is a matter of probability. When the same thing happens alone or continuously, the result

The probability results are different.

Copying seventeen machines from one machine is actually a matter of tossing a coin. If all seventeen machines are regarded as separate events, then each machine has a 50-50 chance of winning or losing. No matter how many copies are made, it cannot increase the probability of victory.

But if the first sixteen machines have failed, then the last one can basically be sentenced to death. As a continuous overall event, as more and more machines fail, the probability of subsequent machine failures rises sharply.

The more copies you make, the more severe the failure will be.

It will be clearer to explain Murphy's law with probability, and it will be clearer how terrible copying errors are. The more errors are copied, the more it proves that humans cannot avoid this error.

Before leaving, Duran gave another popular science class to let everyone know about Murphy's Law, and also explained it using probability. He concluded with one sentence: "Don't copy mistakes, don't take chances. If you realize that you may

If you fall into Murphy's Law, you must reflect on yourself in time, correct your mistakes and then continue. Otherwise Murphy's Law will occur."

Probability has explained that the possibility of Murphy's Law happening is that the more events are repeated, the more they will happen, so don't take any chances.

"Are you leaving?" Tanya was really reluctant to leave, because Dulan's big backer was really too reliable.

"Yes, why are you interested in my trip? You can come with me if you like." Duran invited.

But Tanya refused: "I want to stay here and watch this country embark on the road of prosperity." She has her own choice, and she wants to build her second hometown.

"Come on, Lexi will be left to you." Duran did not take away a single cloud, hiding his merit and fame.


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