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Chapter 306 Regression Equation

 Captain Ma went out to investigate, and the few people who stayed in the small bathroom calmed down for a while, and each lowered his head to do something.

Jiang Yuan also lowered his head and thought.

For him, the prologue of the case has basically been completed. There are indeed differences in the judgment of the time of death of the deceased, but this is not a problem. Maybe it can be used to solve the case.

Of course, based on Jiang Yuan's experience, even if this skill is not used, there may be other clues to solve a case of this level as Captain Ma returns from the investigation.

Jiang Yuan thinks to reset his mind.

Comrade Ye Tianhe was a little noisy.

As a forensic doctor, Jiang Yuan can now understand that Ye Tianhe actually outputs too much directly and is a little unaccustomed to being questioned.

The status of forensic doctors at crime scenes is actually relatively high, and this refers to their professional status.

Generally speaking, after a forensic doctor gives an inference on the time of death at the scene, no criminal police officer will ask: Did you make a wrong calculation?

Even the criminal police captains do not have the relevant professional ability and confidence to make such a judgment. The most they can do is bully the new forensic doctor.

For outsiders, as long as the forensic examiner stands firm and motionless in the face of the corpse and the stench, that is almost enough. The most they ask about is love and family life.

Professional exchanges between forensic doctors are often not too intense.

Especially for grassroots forensic doctors, if you have the support of forensic doctors from higher-level units and recognize your expertise, then you have the final say.

Or, the grassroots forensic doctors themselves are not very professional, their self-confidence is not strong, and they will not get into fierce debates.

Ye Tianhe is actually a relatively strong forensic doctor.

As a forensic doctor of the provincial capital city's criminal police detachment, although Ye Tianhe seemed easy to talk to, he would not fully recognize the technical guidance of the provincial department's forensic doctor.

Therefore, most of the time, Ye Tianhe actually outputs in one direction, and there is little verification.

In a normal case, Ye Tianhe arrives at the scene as a forensic doctor. After examining the body and drawing conclusions, the criminal police officers will not question him. Even if his colleagues are confident enough, they will not actually surpass Ye Tianhe by much in terms of strength.

The methods used should be similar, and so should the answers obtained.

As for the truth of the case, we will neither get immediate feedback nor necessarily accurate feedback. In the end, even if the conclusion is that the forensic doctor made an omission, it is a matter of hours or even days, the forensic doctors are actually very relieved.

my own.

In fact, when using rectal temperature or liver temperature alone to identify the time of death, the accuracy of most regression equations at the beginning of the design is only 85% or 90%, with an error of one or two hours. In practice,

It's a commonplace meal.

Therefore, rather than saying that Jiang Yuan and Ye Tianhe have a conflict of opinions, it is better to say that the standards of the two are not at the same level.

It's been a while since Ye Tianhe encountered such a direct face-to-face challenge.

After calming down, Ye Tianhe soon figured it out and took the initiative to smile with Jiang Yuan: "Jiang Yuan, did you get me into trouble just now? I'm going to talk to you about the temperature of the corpse and judge the corpse through the rectal temperature.

At the time of death, you had rigor mortis and your cornea was hanging upward."

Seeing the situation, Jiang Yuan also calmed down the atmosphere and said: "I came here because I was anxious and anxious. It is true that the death time created by other factors and the death time created by Corpse Wen are not the same, so

, the factor of corpse temperature seems a bit abrupt."

Ye Tianhe just nodded, his understanding was average.

After all, when forensic doctors determine the time of death, those who can use corpse temperature must use corpse temperature.

Because corpse temperature is easier to quantify. Whether it is rectal temperature, liver temperature, or body surface temperature, etc., putting a thermometer on it will give an accurate temperature.

When the accurate temperature is substituted into the regression equation, even if it is a simplified regression equation, the accuracy of the conclusion of the death time given is actually very high.

For the criminal police who use this data, whether they are the criminal police of the Changyang City Criminal Police Detachment or the criminal police of the Ningtai County Criminal Police Brigade, the corpses on that day are accurate to within two or three hours, and the corpses within a few days are accurate to morning and noon.

It's late and I'm very satisfied.

The time given by Jiang Yuan is too accurate and is actually beyond the norm.

Ye Tianhe couldn't understand it, which was normal.

Jiang Yuan had no time to teach him, so he only said: "In fact, if conditions permit, we should be able to draw a relatively accurate conclusion by doing a chemical analysis of the eyeballs. Because the rupture of red blood cells and the accumulation of potassium ions are basically not affected by temperature.

Influenced.”

Ye Tianhe said: "Maybe, the main reason is that the time difference is quite big."

"I agree." Jiang Yuandao: "Normal weather, normal environment, such a big difference in time, it is also extraordinary."

"kindness."

"I think this is probably because the suspect faked the scene."

Ye Tianhe was stunned, his eyes first fell on the bathtub next to the bathroom, and asked: "How did you forge it?"

Based on his forensic experience, the first thing he thought of was actually through the bathtub.

The influence of water bath on temperature is very large, several times greater than the influence of air. Therefore, the identification of the time of death of corpses in water is very different from the identification of corpses on land.

If the water is added with ice or heated, the difference can indeed be very large.

Ye Tianhe stepped forward to check the body again, then shook his head and said: "There is no sign of contact with water."

"Actually, we can do the math backwards and use the multiple regression equation." Jiang Yuan took out the notebook he carried with him and wrote: "Assume that the rectal temperature is Y, the ambient temperature, clothing or coverings, the carrier of the corpse, and the ventilation conditions of the environment

, humidity, gender, age, body shape, and cause of death are ABCDEFGH respectively. If the coefficient is given, the equation is, Y=44.352.311A+0.188B+0.035C+0.136D+0. 563E+0.664F+0.049G+0.019H

…”

Ye Tianhe was a little concerned just now. Jiang Yuan didn't measure the rectal temperature, didn't give the data, and just said a number.

Now, listening to the numerical data given by Jiang Yuan, he fell into confusion again.

Jiang Yuan entered the numerical calculation and continued to introduce: "The most important thing here is to quantify ABCDEFGH. For example, the cause of death can be simply quantified according to the amount of bleeding. Major bleeding can be given -2, and internal bleeding can be given -1. Naturally

It is 0, craniocerebral injury is 1, poisoning is 1, and in the case of poisoning or drug use, you can give a 1 here. Well, hypnotic and sedative drugs must be excluded. The mechanical asphyxia we encountered this time will be given a 2.

"

Ye Tianhe's eyes were already wandering as he listened.

He is actually past middle age, and his children can still study well, so it becomes more and more difficult for him. His wife and father-in-law are also good to him, so it becomes more difficult for him. His parents are aging naturally and always think about him, so they are more and more difficult for him.

It seems very difficult. My body is ordinary, not bad but always has problems, so it becomes even more difficult.

Life is already so difficult, why should we show ourselves such an equation?

If forensic doctors have to calculate the time of death in this way, then I really might as well just die.

Jiang Yuan raised his head and saw that Ye Tianhe had stopped listening and Wan Baoming was silent. Tang Jia next to him only gave a fixed smile. Jiang Yuan wisely shut up and calculated silently.

Before, he was actually unwilling to make such a formula, but he heard that some people were willing to look at it. Now it seems that normal forensic doctors are not willing to look at these things.

After a while, Captain Ma came back and saw that several people who had come out of the bathroom still looked uncomfortable. He thought they were arguing again.

Captain Ma didn't pay attention and said directly: "If it's a quarter past ten, my husband has alibi."

"What kind of evidence?" Jiang Yuan still had to ask. In theory, alibi evidence can also be forged, especially among those who like to engage in perfect murders. There are too many air-to-air discussions, and it is impossible to guarantee all the evidence.

Someone will discuss it.

Captain Ma shook his head and said: "The evidence is very strong. This husband works in an outsourcing Internet company. There are cameras at his workstation, there are cameras when opening the record, there are also cameras entering and exiting the office building, and there is a mobile phone when he leaves his seat for a long time.

Warning, unless the company commits large-scale fraud, it is impossible."

"Then there is someone else." Jiang Yuan nodded.

Captain Ma hesitated and whispered: "Maybe the time of death should not be so tight..."

"I have checked it and there is no big problem with the time of death." Jiang Yuan shook his head.

"Check the calculation?" Captain Ma asked one more question.

Jiang Yuan tore out the calculation page from his notebook and handed it to Captain Ma.

Captain Ma saw the massive letters and numbers, and then smiled like a pure human: "I don't need to ask anymore."

"This multiple regression equation is not easy to calculate, but someone must have forged the crime scene, and interfered with it and made the temperature of the body chaotic." Jiang Yuan did the calculation just to clarify his ideas.

Now that his thoughts were clear, he no longer needed to look at the numbers and said to himself: "Either the deceased was drugged and this requires a toxicology test, or someone made changes to the corpse or the environment around the corpse.

.This family’s bathroom is not big. If the temperature and humidity are raised for two or three hours and raised high enough, it is still possible. But..."

Jiang Yuan looked at Forensic Ye and Brigade Ma and said, "If it's high temperature and humidity, you should be able to feel it when you come in."

Ye Tianhe shook his head slightly: "I've only been on the road for 40 minutes. The police officer who received the call didn't say anything. Can Brigade Ma ask?"

Captain Ma said "yes" and immediately took out his cell phone to ask.

Soon, Captain Ma put down his cell phone and shook his head: "The two people who responded to the police didn't feel anything."

"Then...ask your husband?" Jiang Yuan hesitated a little.

Captain Ma frowned slightly: "Well... if we are not very sure, I think we can put it back a little bit? Well... assuming someone really faked the scene and created high temperature and humidity, then there is no high temperature and humidity now, which means that

He must have eliminated the high temperature and humidity in advance. Could it be that he is an old criminal? He sneaked in in advance, committed the crime, and left again."

He was purely cooperating with Jiang Yuan. From the perspective of the Ma Brigade, such complex cases rarely happened. The more old the criminal, the less likely he would make the case like this.

"If you come in, there may be traces." Jiang Yuan simply stood up and said: "Let me help you get rid of it. Forensic Doctor Ye, will you take the body back for autopsy?"

"OK."

Several people stopped talking and went back to the bathroom to start operations.

Jiang Yuan changed his clothes, gloves, put on special glasses, and began to try to investigate the scene from the bathroom.

Everything seemed to be on track.

Just like before.

Captain Ma and Wan Baoming let out a sigh of relief, then looked at each other and smiled.

Just when the two of them felt relaxed, Jiang Yuan's voice came again:

"This family seems to be using a smart home. The air conditioner, bathroom heater and ventilation in the bathroom can all be operated remotely."


This chapter has been completed!
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