Time flies, and 1998 is here in a blink of an eye.
In the past two months, the Hong Kong stock market has been extremely volatile:
It first rebounded to 12,800 points in early November, and then fell to 10,600 points in mid-November due to weak investor confidence and a sharp drop in trading volume, approaching the lowest record in October;
In late November, international speculators repeatedly attacked but failed to destroy the Hong Kong dollar linked exchange rate. Finally, they were unwilling to temporarily withdraw from the Hong Kong financial market. As the threat was lifted, the market gradually stabilized. The Hang Seng Index at the end of November closed at 12,050 points;
After continuous ups and downs, the Hong Kong stock market gradually stabilized. In the first half of December, investors took advantage of the lows and the Hang Seng Index once climbed to 13,200 points;
Unfortunately, people are still timid, and there are rumors that foreign giants are still eyeing it. Eventually, it fell to 12,250 points at the end of the year, down 28.8% for the whole year. The total transaction volume more than doubled from last year, reaching 3.8 trillion Hong Kong dollars.
At the same time, the situation in South Korea was extremely tragic: in mid-November, the South Korean won gave up its fixed exchange rate against the US dollar, and then the South Korean won plummeted wildly, losing half of its value in a week. This is equivalent to what the Koreans have done in recent decades.
Half of the "cake" has been cut off, and the funding problem of Korean companies has become more and more prominent. Chaebols such as Haitian, Sammy, and Jinro have closed down one after another. Six of the top 30 chaebols have collapsed. People have even begun to doubt that Samsung, Hyundai, and other chaebols have collapsed.
Can Daewoo and LG still hold on? By December, South Korea could no longer hold on and had no choice but to seek help from the IMF and completely open its financial door.
Looking back at 1997, the impact of the Asian financial crisis was undoubtedly huge. It is obvious that this year will write a grand chapter in history.
Looking forward to 1998, the Asian financial crisis is still continuing, especially the suffering in Hong Kong is not over yet.
Friday, January 2nd.
On the first working day after New Year's Day, Lin Zuhui came to New Era Group.
He is in a good mood as always. Recently, Lin Zuhui is holding an ak in his hand, facing a group of opponents with kitchen knives. He can 'bin...bin...bin' at any time to defeat him.
One opponent after another.
Picking up the newspapers on the table, they are almost all the same "tragic news", such and such a company went bankrupt, a certain employee jumped off a building, a certain country's currency depreciated wildly... similar to these news.
At this time, real estate in Xiangjiang has fallen by 30%, and most of it has returned to the level of early 1996, which is equivalent to the peak level in the first quarter of 1994. The important thing is that there is not much transaction volume in real estate, which means that everyone knows that real estate may still be there.
will fall.
After a while, Liang Zhenxun came to Lin Zuhui's office with a smile on his face.
He believes that employees of his boss are very lucky. Several group companies owned by his boss have not reduced their staff so far, so everyone does not need to worry about losing their jobs.
After all, in this environment, losing your job means losing your last hope. Many people have mortgages and car loans in their names. Once they cannot pay, the bank will have to confiscate them, and then there will be nothing left.
"Boss, all gold futures positions have been closed, with a profit of HK$8.61 billion and a withdrawal of HK$9.82 billion."
Lin Zuhui said with a smile: "This year's net profit is probably HK$75 billion. It's really a good year."
The reason for such high net profit is due to the sale of five office buildings, five shopping malls, four Mid-Levels luxury projects, and some scattered rental properties; this part of the income alone is almost 35 billion Hong Kong dollars.
In addition, in the first eight months of this year, the real estate market was very good, and the group's normal profit for the whole year may exceed 30 billion; now it is gold futures income of more than 8.6 billion, which can be said to be the biggest harvest year.
Liang Zhenxun echoed: "The boss has directed well! How many companies are trembling now and will go bankrupt at any time; only we are very relaxed and can take the initiative at any time."
Having been with the boss for so many years, he knows that most of the money in the company's account will be used for bargain hunting, and next year's dividends will still not be very large. And New Era Group has a huge cash of 86 billion Hong Kong dollars in its accounts.
Then, Liang Zhenxun said: "China Bus Company also performed well this year, with net profit exceeding 2 billion."
Lin Zuhui nodded. Under his guidance, CMB sold a large number of its properties, retaining only some core properties and land.
"This year we will distribute the cash as dividends, and we can also recover a large amount of acquisition costs! This company is originally engaged in the transportation business, and we want to return it to its essential business."
Liang Zhenxun immediately said: "Okay."
Lin Zuhui added: "It just so happens that Xu Zhantang's two listed companies have not escaped the financial crisis. CMB has reserved some funds and will prepare to acquire Citybus and take back all the routes on Hong Kong Island again."
At its peak, the combined market value of Xu Zhantang's two listed companies was HK$5 billion, but now it is probably only about HK$3 billion. The market value is second, as important properties have depreciated, and his two listed companies have borrowed money to invest in a large number of properties.
Xu Zhantang will not only sell Citybus, but also antiques to prevent the two listed companies from being liquidated.
Liang Zhenxun's eyes lit up and he said: "It's really true! Last year, Citybus often competed with us for passengers. This year it is our turn to acquire it."
Not only are the two sides competing for customers, but they are also buying new buses and improving services. In short, the competition is fierce. The bus business has stable profits. For example, China and Brazil’s bus net profit last year was 180 million. Although it does not account for a high proportion of the company, it is still relatively eye-catching. If
If all Hong Kong Island bus lines are recovered, there is still hope for an annual profit of 300 million.
Then Lin Zuhui arranged: "Sony's stock can be slowly bought recently. Although there is still the possibility of a decline, we have been quite successful in doing so. As for Sony's market value, I am optimistic about the long term."
This chapter is not finished yet, please click on the next page to continue reading the exciting content! Liang Zhenxun nodded and said: "Okay, I will make arrangements!"
After Liang Zhenxun left, Lin Zuhui calculated in his mind that New Era Group made a huge profit of 8.6 billion Hong Kong dollars in gold futures, so Hengjin Investment made almost 12 billion Hong Kong dollars, and Hengjin Investment's cash flow also exceeded the 50 billion mark.
Group president Chen Bin later came to Lin Zuhui’s office.
"Boss, I just got the news that Sun Hung Kai suddenly announced that it will suspend construction or slow down the development of 10 of its sites!"
Sun Hung Kai is one of the four major real estate developers in Hong Kong. If it announces such news at this time, it is foreseeable that it will have a great psychological shock on the real estate and stock markets.
Lin Zuhui said calmly: "It is a wise choice. Xiangjiang Real Estate will still fall by 30%, and this cycle may be very long."
Chen Bin nodded and said: "Fortunately, we reduced a large number of site plans more than a year ago, and currently we have lost the least in developing real estate."
.......
In early January, international speculators once again came to Hong Kong to "make trouble". In their view, Hong Kong has become a "cash machine"; although five listed companies under Lin Zuhui supported the market last time, the international speculators were after all only about making profits.
It exited with about HK$2 billion.
Therefore, they did not back down. Instead, they took advantage of the panic of the sharp depreciation of the Indonesian rupiah and came to Xiangjiang again to continue testing.
Thursday, January 8th.
In the evening, Lin Zuhui came to the family office and held a meeting with several senior investment managers.
He sat on the main seat and acted very calm and calm in his heart. He knew that this month was still a tentative sniper attack by international speculators. The real decisive battle in Xiangjiang in the previous life was August; and in May, international speculators also sniped at Xiangjiang Financial.
.
In any case, the family office holds a huge capital of 60 billion Hong Kong dollars. It is definitely a hidden dragon in Hong Kong and can deal a fatal blow to international speculators at any time.
Since it was a fatal blow, it was best not to expose it now to avoid having too much impact. Therefore, he wanted to set a suitable standard line this time.
"Today the Hang Seng Index fell to 10,700 points, and in several trading days this year (5 trading days), the Hang Seng Index has fallen by 1,500 points. Therefore, this time we set the target at 10,000 points, but we cannot let the Hang Seng Index
Penetrate this line; that is to say, once the Hang Seng Index falls below 10,200 points, you have to open fire with all your strength."
Everyone nodded, and Li Hao asked tentatively: "The boss thinks this time the international speculators are just a tentative sniper?"
After all, the funds of the family office must be bought in. Assuming that this is the last sniper attack by international speculators, it is obvious that all the funds of the family office should be bought in to prevent the Hang Seng Index from rebounding and missing the opportunity.
Lin Zuhui said generously: "The Asian financial crisis will still have a huge impact this year. International speculators will not miss such a good opportunity and hope to bring down Hong Kong's finance. Judging from the intensity this time, it is obviously not a decisive battle, so everyone should be calm and calm in the future.
There are plenty of opportunities!”
Everyone laughed. The Lin Zuhui family office has such strength, which is a huge amount of 60 billion. The important thing is that they are not fighting alone. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority is working hard (to maintain the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate), and the boss has many
The company firmly supports the market.
In fact, the strength of international speculators is far lower than that of Xiangjiang. If it weren't for the huge bubble in Xiangjiang, how could the current disaster be possible.
In fact, although the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's "any move" approach has preserved the Hong Kong dollar, every time interest rates and bank lending rates are raised, Hong Kong's real estate and economy will fall, and more companies will go bankrupt.
The reason is simple. With such high interest rates, who would buy property?
Banks also dare not borrow money randomly because they need to ensure sufficient cash flow.
Not only do companies have to borrow "loan sharks" at high interest rates, but banks may not necessarily lend money.
Therefore, Hong Kong's economy will continue to deteriorate this year.
However, in Lin Zuhui's view, if the international speculators are defeated once and lose billions or tens of billions, they will automatically retreat.
By then, Xiangjiang can focus on restoring its economy.
In this life, the size of Lin Zuhui's companies can bring about the economy of Hong Kong, and there is no problem.
What's more, he also has the grand strategy of 'building Hong Kong through culture' and 'revitalizing Hong Kong through science and technology'!
.......
at this time.
Soros and other giants are also remotely directing international speculators on Wall Street to attack Hong Kong.
In the conference room, these predators were like 'colonizers', viewing Hong Kong as their prey.
Soros said easily: "Our goal this time is very simple, which is to break the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong to 10,000 points!"
It seems that international speculators are attacking the Hong Kong exchange rate this time, but in fact their real intention is the Hong Kong index. Of course, these are all closely linked.
A head of an investment institution said: "If it weren't for the five listed companies that kept a close eye on it, the Hang Seng Index would have already broken through 10,000 points."
Everyone nodded, and even showed admiration. The five listed companies all have the same mastermind. The market value of the five listed companies accounts for 25% (increased) of the Hong Kong stock market. No matter how bad the environment is, the five stocks are always very good.
It is stable and has even become a safe haven for investors, who are buying it one after another.
Soros said with a smile: "The bottom line is broken step by step. Five listed companies cannot change the results much. Xiangjiang has become our cash machine. As long as we press the button, we can withdraw cash."
Everyone agreed very much with what Soros said, and some people echoed: "If you snipe a few more times, those retail investors will no longer have confidence!"
"Haha" everyone laughed.
Then, Soros added: "I want to tell you some good news. The Zurich Group and First Chicago Bank have decided to cancel their commitment to subscribe for preferred shares issued by Peregrine. This means that the largest bank in Asia excluding Japan
Independently listed investment banks will go bankrupt soon, and then the Hong Kong stock market will suffer a fatal blow."
This chapter is not over yet, please click on the next page to continue reading the exciting content! Everyone is smiling, this is indeed good news.
.......
The next day, Friday.
There was important news in the morning newspaper. Zurich Group and First Chicago Bank issued an announcement: they had decided to cancel their commitment to subscribe for preferred shares issued by Peregrine.
For a moment, it was obvious that Peregrine was in great danger.
In November last year, Peregrine's cash flow was already running low, and then it approached Zurich Group, hoping that the other party would subscribe for 24% of Peregrine's preferred shares for US$200 million and become the largest shareholder. Zurich Group was not stupid either.
The conditions given are to send a team to Peregrine, and they will not decide to implement the promise until the financial environment in Southeast Asia is no longer bad.
To be honest, if Liang Botao had approached Lin Zuhui at that time, maybe Lin Zuhui would have lent Peregrine a loan based on their friendship.
However, at this time, it was To Huilian who was in charge of the bond business in Southeast Asia at Peregrine. Therefore, as a foreigner and not very familiar with Lin Zuhui, To Huilian did not immediately think of Lin Zuhui's Bahrain Bank.
"Boss, Liang Sheng wants to see you!" Li Ke walked into the office and said.
Lin Zuhui was stunned. What was he talking about? He was not afraid of anything.
"Well, please invite him in!"
Soon, Liang Botao walked in.
Lin Zuhui accompanied him to sit down on the sofa. After all, others were not his subordinates, but at most his part-time consultants; and Lin Zuhui had hundreds of such consultants.
"Lin Sheng, if Peregrine cannot raise funds this weekend, it will be declared liquidated next Monday. So I want to come to you and find a way!" Liang Botao took a sip of tea and hurriedly put it down.
Lin Zuhui said: "How much does it cost?"
Liang Botao knew Lin Zuhui very well, so he immediately came to ask for help. At first, he also thought about asking Barings Bank, but Du Huilian and others advocated asking Zurich Group. However, it was almost the same with everyone, and it was difficult for Peregrine!
"Peregrine has almost US$1 billion in bad debts, but its net assets are only over US$600 million."
Lin Zuhui said: "How much market value does Peregrine have left?"
Liang Botao said: "Less than 3 billion Hong Kong dollars!"
At its peak, it was HK$11 billion, which has fallen by more than 70%. It can be said to be one of the stocks with the sharpest decline in Hong Kong.
Lin Zuhui thought about it and said: "In the public eye, if Bahrain Bank injects capital into Peregrine, it will definitely become the absolute majority shareholder, and Du Huilian and others will also be held accountable. To be honest, there is someone I like in Peregrine, and that is you.
This person, Yu Zi, I can personally lend you 300 million US dollars, but you may not be able to save Peregrine, but you will be saddled with huge debts. This is not a good personal choice."
The net debt is more than 300 million U.S. dollars, and even an investment of 300 million U.S. dollars may not be able to save it. After all, some assets cannot be cashed out immediately. Peregrine has so many bad debts that Lin Zuhui has also heard about it: Peregrine holds 200 million U.S. dollars in bad debts from Asian company bonds.
, swap instruments and other bonds also lost US$200 million each, and there was also a loan of US$270 million to an Indonesian taxi company that had no hope of recovery (it wanted to underwrite bonds issued by others). Plus the hedging losses in Xiangjiang, the total was almost US$10.
Billions of dollars in bad debts.
Peregrine's assets are only 4.5 to 5 billion Hong Kong dollars. It is obvious that liquidation is imminent and there is almost no time.
Liang Botao thought for a moment and then said: "Bahrain Bank should acquire Peregrine. Thank you for your respect, I will work for you from now on!"
After a little comparison, he knew how to choose, that is for his own benefit. Assuming that he chose to take a personal loan to save the company, 300 million US dollars may not be possible, and the consequence would be that he would be personally in debt of more than 2 billion Hong Kong dollars, and life would be difficult.
.
If he works for this person, he can become a billionaire after all. After all, he knows the salary of Lin Zuhui's executives.
Lin Zuhui nodded, and then made a phone call, asking Octopus Financial Group and Bahrain Bank to organize teams to contact Peregrine immediately.
After putting down the phone, Lin Zuhui said: "We will finish this matter over the weekend and announce it to the public. Now you can go back to Peregrine to prepare the information and the two parties will communicate in detail."
Although he agreed, he still had to go through the necessary procedures. US$500 million was worth it; if it was higher, it would obviously not be cost-effective, so let Peregrine go bankrupt and then make an acquisition.
Peregrine has several things that Lin Zuhui values very much:
First: the business of investment banking. 80% of the stocks of mainland companies listed in Hong Kong (red chip stocks) are underwritten by Peregrine, and 20% of the red chip h-shares are underwritten by Peregrine, so Liang Botao is also called the "Father of Red Chips".
Second: Liang Botao himself. Lin Zuhui has never been stingy with talents. Such talents will be worthy of investment when he becomes his son's tutor in the future.
Third: 63% of Guang Sang Bank’s equity is worth approximately HK$1.6 billion, and will appreciate in value in the future.
Overall, with the acquisition of Peregrine, Barings Bank’s Asian business has been greatly enhanced.
Liang Botao nodded and said immediately: "Okay, I will go back and prepare, and I will definitely give you the most favorable conditions! However, I would like to ask how to hold Du Huilian accountable. He shouldn't have made a big mistake, right?"
Lin Zuhui said with a smile: "There must be mistakes in negligence, so many directors of Peregrine will resign. If Peregrine collapses, they will not be so relaxed. The court will definitely investigate their legal mistakes, and the consequences will be terrible.
It’s so simple.”
Liang Botao nodded. He understood that what Lin Zuhui said was very reasonable. As for not mentioning his responsibility, he was obviously giving himself face.
"Okay, in that case, let's go through this level first, then I'll make arrangements!"
that day.
The Hang Seng Index fell another 350 points to only 10,350 points.
The weekend is about to come, and it is obvious that investors in Hong Kong have no intention of spending the weekend again. Everyone is thinking about whether Monday will penetrate the psychological defense line of 10,000 points.
International speculators have tried to penetrate this line of defense twice, and it seems that they will achieve it on Monday. Investors in Hong Kong think so, and the market sentiment is gloomy.