Chapter 508 The pros and cons are difficult to balance
After meeting with the head of the First Citi Xiangjiang, Li Jianhui felt quite heavy inside, and the butterfly effect he had caused was getting bigger and bigger.
The dollar depreciated on a large scale in the previous life, after the Plaza Agreement, and there were still three years left before the current period.
Unexpectedly, the other party planned to depreciate on a large scale so early in this life to promote the appreciation of currencies in several major countries.
With the development in recent years, Xiangjiang's main production industry is not in Xiangjiang, and it is more of a capital to invest in various places. The appreciation of the Hong Kong dollar is beneficial to these companies.
Of course, it will also cause the production costs of Xinjian to increase in computers, mobile phones, chips, etc. in disguise. However, overall, the appreciation of the Hong Kong dollar will have huge benefits to Xinjian and even Donghua.
And with preparation, they can reduce their US dollar foreign exchange holdings in advance, increase foreign exchange such as yen, pound, mark, etc., and avoid major losses to their own assets.
But he is still not sure whether this matter is true or not. He is afraid that Citibank will put a smoke bomb on him. Once they adjust their positions on a large scale, the US dollar will go the other way, and the Hong Kong economy will suffer a heavy blow.
In order to avoid major losses, Li Jianhui specially contacted Wei Li, Zhou Pengfei and others to let them pay close attention to the monetary policies of various countries and report on what happens in a timely manner.
At the same time, new instructions were issued to Xinjian Group companies, so that profits do not need to be exchanged for US dollars. In the future, Xinjian Group will mainly focus on corporate funds in Japanese yen.
Li Jianhui didn't care whether the US dollar would depreciate significantly. It would definitely not be wrong to choose the Japanese yen during this period. Even if the Japanese yen does not appreciate significantly, at least there will be no significant depreciation.
As for the issue of the foreign exchange fund of the HKMA, Lee Jianhui only mentioned it slightly to the Financial Secretary Wilms, asking him to focus on the policies of the British Ministry of Finance and the Bank of England. If there are signs, the US dollar will depreciate significantly, the HKMA will
Adjust positions in a timely manner.
As for Wilms' reference to the peg between the Hong Kong dollar and the pound again, Li Jianhui objected without considering it at all. The US dollar can depreciate significantly, and the pound can also do it. He is unwilling to become a victim.
Fortunately, Li Jianhui insisted on his own ideas. He didn't know that the British government, considering the current domestic economic situation, also intends to promote the depreciation of the pound so that British products can be more competitive in the Commonwealth market and even the global market.
It is estimated that the most injured this time will be Japan and the Federal Republic of Germany. Once these two countries are ensnared by Britain, the United States and France, the export of products produced locally will be quite a blow.
Moreover, they are not like Xiangjiang. Due to the development model problem, Xiangjiang is destined to be an industrial product production center.
With the increase in costs, these manufacturers are directly transferred to the mainland and Southeast Asia. Anyway, Xiangjiang companies have been doing this in recent years. Xiangjiang mainly focuses on financial services and technology research and development.
Once the Hong Kong dollar appreciates significantly, Li Jianhui will inevitably place the production of computers, mobile phones, chips, monitors (screens), printed circuit boards, etc. in the mainland and Baodao. Xiangjiang will only leave the R&D department.
In this regard, Japanese companies have done a very successful future. Although there is a 20-year-old company that claims to have gone there and Japan's GDP has stopped moving forward for more than 20 years, its overseas assets and profits are increasing. This is also the time when Japan was willing to sign a square
One of the reasons for the agreement.
Japanese capital goes global, joins business with local enterprises, or directly invests in local industries, and the appreciation of the yen is of great benefit to them.
It’s a pity that Japan itself messed up internally, did not guide domestic assets well, nor did it suppress the bubble in the stock market and the real estate market. Therefore, with the later promotion of the US consortium, huge problems arose in the internal economy.
But to be honest, Japan's overseas development strategy is quite successful, especially in the Southeast Asian and mainland markets. I don't know how many shareholders behind the companies are involved in Japanese capital. While these companies are developing rapidly, Japanese capital also makes huge profits.
In fact, the capital in Xiangjiang needs to learn this more urgently. While enterprises go out, capital must also go out. Only in this way can Xiangjiang Capital grow and grow.
Li Jianhui did not only care about himself. He also informed these allies of Donghuahui's association of this news, hoping that each company would be prepared in advance and avoid too much losses.
"Jianhui, how credible do you think is there for the sharp depreciation of the US dollar?"
In the private room of Xinhui Hotel, facing Li Guobao's inquiry, Li Jianhui responded: "The depreciation of the US dollar is the inevitable result, otherwise there will be big problems in the US economy, but when will it depreciate and how large the depreciation will be, I won't be very good at all.
It's clear.
This time, Citibank specifically informed me of the news, and I guess the other party intends to promote the appreciation of our Hong Kong dollar, with the purpose of reducing the competitiveness of our products overseas.
But I don't know much about it. Our Hong Kong is different from Japan. We are not a manufacturing economy. The other party pushes up our Hong Kong dollar market value and will not add too much trouble to us. Instead, it will have huge benefits for us to develop overseas.
.”
Li Guobao on the other side also thought that as an elite in the financial industry, he saw further than Li Jianhui on this.
Not to mention other things, Hong Kong dollar continues to increase in value, Hong Kong will inevitably attract more hot money, and the stock market will inevitably usher in a surge.
It will inevitably increase the cost of Xiangjiang products, and will also have an important impact on Xiangjiang import and export trade.
The appreciation of the Hong Kong dollar also means that overseas profits will decrease compared to the Hong Kong dollar, and some companies may suffer a heavy blow.
Of course, there are many benefits. For example, the price of imported products in Xiangjiang will be reduced due to the appreciation of the Hong Kong dollar. With the fact that wage income does not drop, the life of Xiangjiang citizens will be easier.
"Jianhui, I think it is necessary to let your political and economic research office carefully study the pros and cons of the appreciation of the Hong Kong dollar for us and the Hong Kong economy, and at the same time, we must strictly prevent American capital from shooting arrows in the future.
The other party is probably the first step to force the appreciation of currencies in various places, and there will be more actions in the future. Those giant crocodiles will never be willing to see all parties divide their global markets."
Subsequently, Feng Jingyao, Guo Zhiquan and others also expressed their opinions, and they dare not make a conclusion on whether the appreciation of the Hong Kong dollar is good or bad.
Fortunately, there is still time now, so the US dollar cannot depreciate significantly at once. They can also consider the pros and cons in a comprehensive way.
At the same time, they also strengthened their intention to promote the MAS to reserve some gold and attach the value of the Hong Kong dollar to several major foreign currencies. This is irresponsible to the entire citizens of Hong Kong and also makes them unable to take the initiative.
The desire to promote Xinjian Bank to obtain the right to issue Hong Kong dollars is also more urgent. They hope to have a say in this, rather than being monopolized by British banks as they are now.
Whether it is pegged to the US dollar or the British pound, it is not very reliable. Multiple currencies must be added to gold to make the Hong Kong dollar relatively stable.