Tian Haimo was a little embarrassed.

Her original intention was not to ask Feng Jianxiong for advice.

The reason why I want to change jobs or start my own business is entirely to get a vaccination, so as not to mention the mistake when Feng Jianxiong comes to Cai Chongxin for tea tomorrow.

Tian Haimo is very good at dealing with people.

Based on her speculation: as long as Feng Jianxiong knows that she has the intention to leave Ali, then, if Cai Chongxin or other people he met tomorrow, Feng Jianxiong will also feel that "It's because Sister Momo wants to leave, but it's not Ali's fault", and deliberately avoids this topic and will not continue to talk in depth.

However, Feng Jianxiong took it seriously.

And I was very enthusiastic about taking advantage of the time I was waiting for the main course and talked about her career plan.

How could Tian Haimo write so many "life plans"?

If you want to say every kind lie well, it requires countless substitute materials to plug it.

Fortunately, Tian Haimo was talented and smart, otherwise she would not have been able to be the vice chairman of the student union in school and won the international competition championship based on her eloquence.

She has the potential of a strong woman. During Ali's internship for more than half a year, she was diligent and willing to work hard and carefully observed. In terms of gains, I am afraid that the gains will be more than ordinary people who have worked hard for two years at Ali.

In addition, the big boss Ma Feng is a verbal expert and often gives core employees full of chicken soup and dry goods.

Tian Haimo also happens to be a top eloquent expert, so if you organize your words a little, you can tell a lot of considerable truths.

Taking advantage of eating foie gras, Tian Haimo said her thoughts in a roundabout way:

"Xiaoxiong, do you know that before I came to Ali, I felt that my eloquence was actually not much different from you. What I admire most about you is your "insight, foresight" ability-

You seem to be talking about many debate topics that seem to be evenly matched at the moment, you can always use a high-level perspective from the future to kill one of the parties. I ask myself that I can't do it, it's not that my eloquence is not good, but that I don't have as good eyes as you."

Feng Jianxiong looked at his senior sister jokingly, gently shook his wine glass, and asked playfully: "Then what you mean is that after staying in Ali for more than half a year, you will not worship my 'violence'?"

Tian Haimo wiped her mouth and said with a smile: "Of course not, it's just not as strong and unprincipled admiration as before. In Ah Li, I have known too many smart people, including Mr. Ma himself, and several other executives engaged in strategic research.

In fact, their predictions about the future, what will be popular, what will be the future trend and goals, have similar prospects and goals. Moreover, after reviewing some of their early predictions, I found that the accuracy rate is also very high, almost comparable to yours.

The only difference is that their predictions do not have a precise time point to be realized. They use a set of downward trend schedules for various factor costs to calculate the emergence of the next e-commerce hotspot. But they do not know when the factor costs will drop to the critical point. And your understanding of time and cost factor nodes is sharper than them."

Feng Jianxiong's expression became solemn as he listened.

Of course he is more sharp than those experts and masters. After all, he is a reborn person, so there is nothing to be proud of about this.

However, Tian Haimo mentioned that "others can actually foresee the future, but the time is not as accurate as you", once again confirmed Feng Jianxiong's vigilance in his heart.

Never take pride in being a reborn person! Just relax your requirements for yourself!

If the protagonists of the rebirth articles on a certain novel website are really reviewed, 99% of them will be miserable.

People who have been reborn before the Information Age may be a great advantage.

However, those who are reborn in the information age have to face a serious problem: except for those sudden pure black swan events, the wise men in this world are easy to predict most other historical trends.

The only difference is that they don’t know what conditions and what specific moments they will happen.

It was because Tian Haimo had contact with Ali's senior management that she had the experience today:

For example, the bricks in Ali's strategic research department actually already knows that "in the future, e-commerce will become popular in standardized products, and then with the maturity of "finding the same model and searching for the same model", it will develop into the clothing industry, driving the entire e-commerce transaction volume to soar. Then, the light luxury fast-moving consumer goods e-commerce exploded. Finally, as logistics and data costs further decline, the online shopping scenario will further fit life, forming a pattern of buying even various cheap daily necessities online."

For example, today, a think tank bricklayer from Tengyun can easily say, "The traffic is so expensive now, so mobile entertainment can only read e-books. In the future, if 3g is used for mobile, wifi will be more popular, and there will be music. Turn-based mobile games will gradually rise. At 4g, there will be instant mobile games and live broadcasts. Live broadcasts will first cremate the two major categories of women in the dressing room dancing, singing, taking off clothes, and men playing games. Then as mobile traffic drops, it will begin to transform into outdoor and street shooting live broadcasts..."

In the information age, all great people can know the trend.

If a mentally reborn person returns to 2007 from 2017, and then confidently feels, "I know that Ali and Tengyun's think tanks don't know which businesses will become popular in the next ten years."

Then this kind of idiot should quickly commit suicide again and read the record again. It is more reliable to strive to be reborn for 20 years. The information age is not suitable for them. Even if they are reborn ten thousand times, they will be slaves for men and women for generations.

What a great man doesn’t know is just the cost trend behind this trend.

Therefore, if the unit data transmission cost of analog signals does not decrease quickly enough, something like Xiaolingtong will appear.

If the unit data transmission cost of digital signals does not drop fast enough, wifi will also occur.

And if it drops fast enough, maybe the world will jump directly to the 5g world without wifi.

What people cannot foresee is just the time when these "unexpected twists and turns" occur and the length of their existence.

If the cost of turbine (compressor) drops quickly enough, the Kano cycle efficiency of small compressors can also be high, and maybe there will be no such twists and turns in the world as "central air conditioning". Just use small air conditioning directly.

Similarly, if the cost of electric motors did not drop fast enough back then, the American electrical companies that had the idea of ​​"sharing the central motors that drive most of the electrical appliances in their homes" a hundred years ago would not have suddenly gone bankrupt.

...

Ah Li's six months allowed Tian Haimo to see through the "prophet without a deadline is not worthy of worship."

Even today, if you put a protagonist in front of her with a novel rebirth story, she had read, clearly telling her that this person was reborn. Tian Haimo would not immediately accept her head and worship her like the girl in the novel, and she would not want to be the other woman.

Because these people are no longer worthy of her admiration.

In her eyes, those people are at most similar to the abilities and life achievements of the awesome experts she met in Ali.

"For example, when Mr. Wei first came, Mr. Ma told him, 'Don't worry about the e-commerce of b2b's cannot be done', because 'When there are more than one-year-old managers in the business world, b2b's e-commerce will definitely usher in a big explosion. Now the post-80s are just using the Internet to play games'.

However, Mr. Ma didn’t know when China’s industry could achieve “most of the middle-level and above management are composed of post-80s generations.”

"For example, everyone knows that 'personal cancer prevention and treatment with personal key gene sequencing as the core' will be an important trend in the development of medicine in the 21st century, but experts just don't know how long it will take to reduce the cost to an acceptable process for patients.

20 years ago, not long after the Human Genome Project was proposed, it would cost $3 billion to complete such a sequencing. It dropped to 100 million in the 1990s, and now it has dropped to 10 million US dollars. Some people say that in another five years, it can be reduced to several million, and in 2017, ten years later, it may be $300,000 to 500,000. At that time, the super rich had already had the money to use this personal genetic screening to customize cancer drugs.

Therefore, it is not difficult to predict the general direction of the future. Just focus on the downward trend curve of a certain technology. The difficulty is whether the time is accurate or not. A year earlier, it may be the corpse that died under the city wall. A year later, it may be the one who is watching others become meritorious first, be granted a title of marquis and ministers, and follow him and earn some hard work in vain."

Tian Haimo said so much, but Feng Jianxiong should have interrupted her in advance, because many examples are similar in principle.

However, Feng Jianxiong finished listening patiently.

Because he found that Tian Haimo's words also had a very "encouragement if you don't", which could prevent him from being too inflated because he relied on the prophet's continuous guidance on the country and making jokes and making a successful career.

I really didn't expect that Tian Haimo had grown up to be his good mentor and friend equally, and no longer just worshipping him.

Feng Jianxiong sighed for a while, took a deep breath, and took back the initiative in the topic: "After saying so much, you want to prove, 'You can also predict which entrepreneurial directions in the field of e-commerce will have the opportunity to become popular in the future'? Then, let me tell you the conclusion - if you start your own business, what do you want to do?"

Tian Haimo was originally just trying to make things difficult for Feng Jianxiong to make things difficult for him. However, in the mutual language confrontation, the two inspire each other, which made Tian Haimo think of some useful ideas - at least worth discussing.

The most common line that people who debaters talk about is to find politically correct for their careers is that "the more they debate the truth, the more they become clearer."

Unexpectedly, when we were fighting against our opponents at home and abroad on the court, we were unable to "understand" the truth. Instead, we once had a good match between our teammates, eating red wine steak and having a relaxed conversation, but we had so many sparks of wisdom.

Tian Haimo sorted out her thoughts and expressed her opinion: "I just said that e-commerce for standardized products has developed enough, and the rental costs will be further increased in the future, and logistics and data costs will be further reduced. The trend should be non-standard decorations and light luxury fast-moving consumer goods.

However, it is difficult to establish brand loyalty for online merchants in clothing. When users buy beautiful clothes, they look at popular styles and the same style as Internet celebrities, rather than looking at what brand of clothes they are. If they are loyal to the brand, they will still buy them at the existing brand flagship store. Entrepreneurs have no chance, they can only build platforms, not brands.

Therefore, if I start a business myself, I can consider quality fast-moving consumer goods in the next few years, and even take some differentiated routes, such as the second dimension, acting cute, and seizing young consumers... I haven't thought about the specifics yet.

However, it is still a bit too early to start the fight now. I always feel that the days when Mr. Ma said, "The middle class will always grow stronger in the future, and consumption will be upgraded." If he takes action too early, before the good days come, I will die at the darkest time before dawn."

Tian Haimo told her plan in one breath.

When Feng Jianxiong heard this, he knew that her insights were deeply influenced by Ma Feng.
Chapter completed!