"Mr. Zhou, how to judge the limit of leverage ratio that a bank can bear?"
this problem……
Zhou Yan turned around and glanced at his cute-looking senior sister: "Senior sister, are you trying to save money and then buy at the bottom?"
"Where is it?"
"Banks' non-performing debts are handled through hedging operations. Of course, large-scale hedging operations for non-performing loans are not something that each state-owned commercial bank can operate, but require the central bank to conduct unified operations based on the overall accounts of major state-owned banks.
.
The first, most practical, most effective, and fastest-resulting operation is the CPI increase.
Residents' basic consumption has a large base, CPI rises, and M2 becomes larger. This increase can be used to offset part of the non-performing loans.
As for how the central bank operates, you have to ask your finance students.
Of course, this method can only be used to deal with a limited number of short-term or temporarily due bad debts.
The advantage is that it can be operated repeatedly in a short period of time.
The second is long-term operation, offset by expected GDP growth rate.
This method is essentially implemented through M2.
However, on an annual basis, and if M2 is matched with the GDP growth rate, and the number is in hundreds of billions, the number of non-performing loans that can be dealt with cannot be underestimated."
"Ah..." There was a little disappointment in the senior sister's accent.
"However, the expected growth rate of GDP also has limitations. If the expected growth rate of GDP slows down, a domino effect will occur. However, it is impossible for all the growth of GDP to be used to solve bank non-performing loans.
Moreover, bank loans are all on schedule. If loans are concentrated in a certain year and ordinary loans expire, many real estate developers will be unable to repay the loans as scheduled, and bad debts will be concentrated to a certain amount, so large that even the central bank will be unable to operate..."
"Mr. Zhou, our country's GDP growth rate has always been very stable!"
"Sister, you are overthinking," Zhou Yan smiled and shook his head, "As your family is prosperous, it is inevitable that your neighbors will be envious, jealous, and even take action..."
“But what does our country’s GDP have to do with foreign countries?”
"What is the core determinant of GDP growth?" Zhou Yan asked back, making Wu Zhengxun's brain go smoky.
"The growth of GDP is essentially the growth of productivity. And science and technology are the primary productive forces." Zhou Yan smiled coldly, "Why do you think foreign countries want to suppress our country's high-tech enterprises and universities? The essence is suppression.
Your GDP. As for those trade barriers, the core issue is also GDP..."
And Zhou Yan remembered very clearly that a few years later, when real estate was at its peak, Meili Guoxia suppressed Warwick, which was emerging internationally.
Why did the government support it at that time?
The core reason is to make the country's GDP seem to have a driving force for growth, so as not to cause a chain reaction and cause the real estate agency to collapse.
It has to be said that the beautiful operation at that time still had two brushes, and it went straight to the point: curbing GDP growth, causing the bank's bad debt offset mechanism to "overclock" and puncture the bubble formed by the huge real estate leverage, leading to a series of chain events.
reaction……
"Mr. Zhou, can you give me a simple judgment method?"
"Senior sister, what do you want to do?" Zhou Yan took a step back with a smile and looked at this cute-looking senior sister with a smile.
"I just want to seize the time and make some money."
"I'll give you a suggestion. If you want to speculate in real estate, just do it in the short term and make a profit. Do it multiple times in the short term to prevent you from being cheated..." Zhou Yan was a little speechless. "As for the leverage ratio of real estate developers, do you think when will pork become so expensive?
Most people can't afford it, so it's already the limit.
Of course, if you really want to speculate in real estate, it is recommended to form a group. More funds means a higher voice, and real estate developers also like this method, and the money will be returned quickly...
The above is just my personal opinion, please listen to it and don’t spread it to others.
Now, I would like to ask Mr. Xu to play a classic song for everyone..."
A few "general managers" took the lead, and the atmosphere gradually became heated. Some employees who were just chatting began to "bitterly complain" about the sad "old history".
The stars gradually rose, and the chatter on the field gradually subsided. Some people, unable to resist the invasion of the Sandman, returned to their cars or tents.
Glancing at Cheng Lin who had already begun to nod, Zhou Yanchao pursed his lips and said to Qin Ruoshu, "You and she should go back to bed first."
What Zhou Yan didn't expect was that Qin Ruoshu came back after sending Cheng Lin back.
"What are you doing, aren't you sleepy?"
"Well," Qin Ruoshu nodded, "I slept a little too long at noon and in the afternoon, and I don't want to sleep for the time being..."
I didn't want to sleep, so I sat outside and watched the stars.
However, when Zhou Yan saw the friends around him taking out their tents and preparing to set them up, his eyes lit up: "Wait a moment!"
After saying that, he quickly ran to the side trunk of the RV, opened it, took out the "starry sky roof" tent placed inside, then found a place and quickly set it up.
Five minutes later, the young couple was already lying in the tent, looking at the stars through the "skylight" reserved on the top of the tent.
"The sky here seems to be bluer than over there..." Qin Ruoshu tilted her head and glanced at Zhou Yan lying next to her, "We haven't been camping outside together for a long time."
"Last time, it was organized by Lao Deng last year," Zhou Yan thought for a while, "After a while, if you want to go camping, you can go to the tree house hotel on the mountain..."
"I don't want to go back. I have to work on the drawings at the scenic spot again..."
"This is just a big project. The investment in the remaining cultural and tourism projects is not that big, and..." Zhou Yanjiu sighed slightly, "In the past year, I guess I haven't had much time to do it for you.
Homework..."
"You are overthinking, I have also done projects..."
The next day, Qin Ruoshu woke up in the familiar "symphony" of the kitchen. Just as she was about to stretch, she found that Zhou Yan had already gotten up.
I wanted to continue sleeping in, but I was too embarrassed. I changed my clothes, unzipped the tent, and poked my head outside. I found that not many people were getting up, so I got out of the tent.
"Mr. Qin, breakfast is ready!"
"What's there?" Qin Ruoshu walked towards the dining car curiously.
"Double dough sticks, steamed buns, pies, baked goods, siomai, the quantity is limited..." The chef chuckled, "The drinks include milk, soy milk, millet porridge, and eight-treasure porridge."
"Oh..." Qin Ruoshu nodded, picked up the dinner plate from the side, "Here are six steamed buns, two eggs, two bowls of soy milk..."
After picking up the meal, Qin Ruoshu came to a circle of tables that had not been removed last night, found a place to sit down, then took out her cell phone and called Zhou Yan.
Two seconds later, Zhou Yan's familiar ringtone appeared nearby.
After hanging up the phone, he patrolled in the direction of the ringing sound. When he found Zhou Yan, he waved: "Honey, your breakfast is over here..."
While the couple was having breakfast, other people were getting up one after another, rubbing their sleepy eyes. When they saw familiar people, some vague memories vaguely appeared in their minds, and they smiled awkwardly...
After breakfast, everyone tidied up the tables and chairs, cleaned up the garbage, packed the bags, and handed them over to the "logistics support vehicle" at the end of the team for unified processing.
"Let's go!"
The convoy slowly restarted and started the next day's journey facing the rising sun.
After setting off on the road, the squadron leader of the security department in charge of the escort began to report the situation to Zhou Yan: "This journey is a total of 1,600 kilometers. Yesterday we took eight hours and traveled 400 kilometers. Since there are no mountain roads on today's journey, and it is relatively long,
We plan to leave early and the mileage is expected to reach 600 kilometers..."