Zhao Xin also knows that it is very difficult for a business leader of his level to get an exclusive interview. Moreover, Ye Hua is very maverick and rarely speaks in the public eye. Other big guys are participating.
He has frequently appeared in various business forums and summits, and he has participated in only a handful of communication forums so far.
After sorting out his words, Zhao Xin glanced at his partner who was holding the camera, confirmed, and then started the interview formally: "As the founder of Coastline Group, it is no exaggeration to say that you and your company are now almost the mainstay of the world economy.
Watch, especially the technology industry, just like during the previous press conference, the international crude oil market immediately reversed as soon as you mentioned it..."
Hearing this, Ye Hua smiled and interrupted: "I have to say this in advance. Some of my rights of speech are just for discussion after dinner. Don't take it seriously. Just don't bother me when the time comes. Put the blame away first.
"
Zhao Xin couldn't help but smile. After a slight adjustment, she continued: "So at the seminar just now, you exchanged ideas with many foreign scholars on many topics, including science and technology, cross-regional platform cooperation, and economic exchanges, especially
It was you and the American economist and management guru Edward Lazere, Ph.D. in Economics from Harvard University. The economic topics were very exciting and easy to understand. It is still impressive. I didn’t expect that in addition to being a scientist and entrepreneur, you are also an outstanding economist.
Scholar."
After hearing this, Ye Hua said calmly: "To be honest, I am not an economist, and I have not systematically studied and researched economics. I do not position myself as an economist. I position myself as a scientist. That's not right.
, it should be said that I am a technical engineer. I have not yet reached the level of a scientist. After all, I am still an entrepreneur. In addition, if I want to offend people, most economists speak for business interest groups. They are not as realistic as real scientists and technical engineers.
the spirit of."
Indeed, the reputation of economists in this era is getting worse and worse. Zhao Xin responded in her heart. She is not as bold as Ye Hua to speak out without caring about offending others.
However, as one of the gold medal reporters of "Jinghua News Agency", Zhao Xin's interviewing skills are undoubtedly, and he immediately said cleverly: "Anyway, your views on the world economy at the seminar and exchange conference are very unique. It can be understood that you
From the beginning, I did not look at economics with an economic attitude, but looked at it from other angles, with a level-headed perspective, so I did not learn theology, so I am more sharp and critical."
Ye Hua: "As expected of a Beijing reporter, it seems that Ms. Zhao, you are planning to let me, a layman, speak in insider language, and you want to make me look embarrassed?"
Zhao Xin: "Mr. Ye is joking. In this exclusive interview, we hope to share, disseminate and exchange economic knowledge from your perspective."
Ye Hua: "I've boarded your pirate ship and can't escape without leaving something behind, haha."
Zhao Xin smiled kindly, and Ye Hua immediately looked at her and said with a smile: "As I said before, some of my opinions are just for after-dinner conversation, don't take it seriously!"
Finally, Ye Hua sorted out what he wanted to say in his mind, organized the words and said:
“I learned a lot from the exchanges with foreign scholars at the seminar. Such exchanges not only improve myself but are also more interesting. The two sides were talking about the world economic situation, and Mr. Raziel introduced the fashionable theories of neoclassical economics.
, I remember he looked at me in surprise at the meeting and asked me why China’s economy is growing so fast? Western economists have been studying for a long time and still don’t know the reason for such rapid growth. Then Mr. Raziel spoke sharply
Just say in the debate, you Chinese people are totally messing around."
"What kind of sweatshop, plagiarizing advanced Western technology, etc."
"I said stealing technology, why don't you workers in the sunset industry in the north of the United States go to Silicon Valley to steal? Isn't it easier for you Americans to steal American technology? It's easier for the Philippines to steal American technology than it is for us Chinese, and the Philippines is not blocked by technology.
, what about us? Batumi, the Wassenaar Agreement greeted us one after another, so there is no logic in what he said."
Zhao Xin smiled and said: "The scene of Mr. Edward Raziel blushing is still fresh in my mind."
Ye Hua: "So what is Mr. Razer's logic? I think there are two logical theories in it. One is Solow's growth theory, which is the so-called 'total factor productivity', or tfp for short, also known as '
Total factor productivity'."
"What does Raziel mean? He said that the law of economic growth is called constant returns to scale. For example, if I double the size, my income will not actually increase. Most companies believe that returns to scale are diminishing, which means
The bigger I do, the lower my efficiency will be. So if I stop doing things when I see good things, wouldn’t that be a balance? In other words, it means that the government should not interfere.”
"But is that actually the case?"
"Obviously not. If Solow's theory is correct, then what is the equivalent of the convergence of the world's economic development speed? It is equivalent to population growth, so now that the West is aging, the growth rate is getting slower and slower."
"But can this theory explain why we have maintained such rapid growth in the past few decades? Can it explain why India has grown so fast? Obviously not, because the actual situation is that the growth rate is much higher than the population growth. Our current population growth is around 5
At that time, not to mention the economic growth rate before, it is now more than 6 points. Even if you look at 5, 6, the difference is not big, but you have to look at how big our base is, and how big the final absolute value is. This is supported by data, and the language will
Deception, data will not deceive.”
"And one of the most absurd aspects of Solow's theory is that he gave the incomprehensible factors in the driving force of economic growth a nice name: total factor growth rate."
"For scientists and engineers, I don't know this. I just don't know. If the economy grows so fast, you have to calculate it. You have to deduct the contribution of labor, the contribution of capital, and the contribution of population. What is left? No.
Is it the progress of science and technology?”
Zhao Xin: "As a high-tech company, the technological progress brought by Coastline Group has stimulated economic growth."
Ye Hua: "Let's not talk about the coastline. A company is still a company even if it is a promising giant. Scientific progress is definitely like our technological research. The goal is very clear, that is, continuous improvement, upgrading, and subversion. Like a drunkard.
If we keep messing around, will technology improve?"
"Solow calculated what was left of the residue, and came up with a total factor growth rate."
"The scientists and engineers are very sincere. I don't know what this is. They will say it frankly. I don't know. It needs to be explained."
"According to Solow's theory, we get a ridiculous result. China's economic growth rate is much higher than that of the United States, so it is said that China's tfp is not as good as the United States. And if China is market-oriented, its economy can be faster than it is now. It is simply a fantasy."
Zhao Xin: "Mr. Ye is still as sharp as ever."
Ye Hua: "Haha, actually it is very simple for me to refute Solow's theory. I just use an opposite theory to fight back against him. It was also proposed by the West, called 'endogenous growth theory'. There is something in it that seems reasonable but is actually true.
The wrong theory is that knowledge is accumulated."
"Okay, so the UK was the initiator of the Industrial Revolution. According to this logic, the UK has accumulated more knowledge. If you go to Oxford and Cambridge in the UK to check, the knowledge documents collected by the British must definitely exceed that of the United States, right?"
"Then let me ask you, is the UK's current economic growth and technology more powerful than that of the United States? Not necessarily?"
"So from this point, we know that Solow's theory is extremely unreliable. Why? His theory assumes that knowledge accumulation increases with scale, which means that the larger the scale, the faster the growth. If this is correct
, his prediction is that the gap between the North and the South will become wider and wider, with the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer. If his theory is reliable, then according to his theory, developing countries have no hope of rising, and emerging companies have not subverted the old.
The hope of the giants, right?"
"But what about the reality? China has taken off! India's growth rate has been pretty good in recent years, as have other emerging market countries and companies."
"And what is the actual situation we see in the world? Some big countries have risen and some have fallen. The United States has taken off in an all-round way after the war. The former leader, Britain, has become the younger brother of the United States. Right, the United States is in decline now.
There is a global consensus that China is taking off in an all-round way."
"Some companies have risen and become newly emerging giants, while others have declined. New super multinational giants such as Google, Facebook, and Huawei, Sony, Motorola, and Nokia have collapsed and declined."
Zhao Xin: "Mr. Ye, you have forgotten that what should not be ignored is also the most dazzling rise of the Coastline Group."
Ye Hua: "Of course I know this, but I am not the founder of Coastline. It sounds a bit self-proclaimed. Although I know it, but...forget it, remember to delete this paragraph, haha."
Zhao Xin: "Hehe, okay."
Ye Hua: "So some are happy and some are sad. My conclusion is that it is neither the convergence of exogenous growth nor the divergence of endogenous growth. It is Professor Chen, a scholar of physics and economics at Fuda.
Proposed theory of metabolic growth.”
"To explain Professor Chen's theory of metabolic growth, we must re-understand Adam Smith's problem. Smith's problem is self-contradictory. He has a guess. I want to criticize it here. Smith did not dare to write it in his title.
, when he was discussing whether international trade required government intervention, he used an analogy called the invisible hand and told a story."
Zhao Xin: "What story?"
Ye Hua: "The story goes that the Netherlands is a sea coachman who transports a ship of grain from Königsberg to Portugal for trade, but it can't come back empty, right? So when it goes back, it can be loaded with wine, or other products.
From this Adam Smith believed that trade would automatically balance."
"Is it really balanced? A very simple question, let me ask Ms. Zhao, do you think the value of this ship of grain and a ship of wine will be equal?"
Zhao Xin: "Of course not. A ship of wine is definitely more expensive than a ship of grain. Just like shipping a ship to the United States, the sales value may be tens of billions of dollars, and loading a ship of soybeans back may cost tens of millions. This is just for ordinary people.
Everyone knows the problem."
Ye Hua: "So there is no need to elaborate on the conclusion. Let's give a few more examples. Why did the British fight the Opium War? This can be answered with economic questions, because the British love to drink Chinese tea, and the British continue to have a trade deficit.
Even after the Opium War, there was no way to balance the trade. In the end, tea had to be grown in northeastern India, and to transport it out, we had to use visible hands to build railways. It took about 170 years to balance the trade; another
For example, from 1971 to now, how many years has the United States had a continuous trade deficit? Is it balanced? Not necessarily."
"So with the textbook doctrine, I read a few books on Western economics and thought that the market can automatically balance trade... No, it's not possible!"
