Gu Kun didn't know much about investing at first. He only made his judgment based on the foresight of a reborn person.
But since we were talking nonsense at a cocktail party, we always had to come up with some far-fetched reasons, so we just analyzed it while talking and laughing.
This was just a casual talk, with no hope of convincing anyone. It's like those stock commentators who talk and laugh happily. If they really have the ability to make a lot of money, they can just go and make money. What kind of show will they do?
Unfortunately, at this sensitive juncture, his excuse was misunderstood by many wealthy businessmen from the entertainment and fashion and luxury industries present.
He also thought that he had some relationship with the mainland's top executives and could get inside information.
"Gu Sheng, this kind of thing can only be discussed in everyone's circle. Are the authorities going to take any action on the land supply plan of this city?"
"Don't worry, the direction of the real estate market is not that of the stock market or futures and foreign exchange. Knowing the policy is not considered insider trading. If you tell me, everyone will only accept your favor and there will be no legal risks."
Some of them who were more knowledgeable were afraid that Gu Kun was worried about legal risks and suddenly kept silent, so they persuaded him like this.
The crime of insider trading can be found in any country, but whether it is strictly enforced depends on your ability. If you really want to strictly enforce business affairs, none of the people on Wall Street will be able to escape, and they all should be imprisoned.
But no matter how strict the investigation of insider trading is, it will only be found in financial markets such as the stock market. Real estate is not a financial market at all. Knowing the gossip in advance and making profits from it is a good thing and is legal in any country.
Those developers, before the subway was planned, had already raised the property prices in advance according to the propaganda of the subway. This is true all over the world.
"So, it seems that I can use my power to pretend that I have 'someone above'? This advantage is not in vain." Gu Kun thought in his mind and quickly thought about this truth.
In fact, he was considered to be "someone above". In the past two years, he had been an old friend of the Chinese people, which was considered a friendship.
However, since we are engaged in the fashion, culture, tourism and luxury industry, our biggest assets are brands and intangible assets such as confidence, so there is never too much room for imagination in the background.
The deeper your background is guessed by others, the easier it is to do business in this field, and the higher the quality of the services you provide.
Then just go with the flow.
Anyway, this matter is a big lie and there is no suspicion of insider trading. It falls into a blank area that the law does not care about.
So Gu Kun simply let go of his boasting: "Of course my words are well-founded. I can't go into details. But they are more based on my own research and judgment. I think that in the next few years, the land supply in this city will be much more."
It’s hard to say, but there will definitely be 50,000 units per year, and the land supply will be at least ten times faster than during the colonial era.
Think about it, this city has a population of only five to six million, and more than 50,000 low-cost housing units are added every year, which can satisfy at least 200,000 people. The immediate needs can be filled soon. So before housing prices fall back to the normal range, I
I won’t invest heavily in the property market. It’s not that I don’t have money, but I don’t want to insult my IQ.”
"Fart! Gu Kun, you are disturbing the market confidence!" Hutchison's President Xu and Yuan Tianshi were both angry. Yuan Tianshi wanted to act shady, but he was too embarrassed to say it, so President Xu immediately scolded him.
Gu Kun smiled kindly: "Yes, I farted, so don't believe me. Just don't sell in a hurry. Mr. Xu, if you are confident, don't cut prices and ship goods in the next three years. Just keep it under wraps."
Gu Kun's words really encouraged a few people who were not firm in their stance.
After all, he did not just talk in vain, but actually took the action of "I would rather buy a car worth 4 million Hong Kong dollars than buy a house worth more than 1 million Hong Kong dollars." After all, this can be regarded as a bet of millions.
own point of view.
When Boss Yang of Buwang Records saw that the situation was about to get tense, he quickly came out to persuade him: "It's normal to have different opinions on market expectations. There's nothing to convince. It's not appropriate to talk about it after drinking today. You'll see for yourself when the time comes. It's such an obvious thing.
, why rush to distinguish right from wrong."
Liang Jinsong also quickly smoothed things over: "Indeed, the New Deal's plan for land transfer should be released soon, so please don't hurt the peace.
Gu Sheng, why don't we go over there and have a chat to see if you have anything to entrust us with. We at Blackstone Fund always focus on keeping client confidentiality."
Gu Kun also took advantage of the opportunity to move up the ladder, and he no longer had the same experience as those people.
We'll see.
He was originally here to make some faces today. Now that he had found a fund manager he could chat with and could help him with some follow-up investment operations, he was eager to get down to business.
President Xu watched Gu Kun leave and thought he had won. He did not forget to openly complain a few words to Gu Kun's back.
…
"Gu Sheng, our Blackstone Fund is involved in general tradable stock markets, private equity non-tradable equity transactions, and foreign exchange futures. I wonder which aspect you are more enthusiastic about." Liang Jinsong led Gu Kun into a room with a wine glass in his hand.
Small study room, private chat alone.
Gu Kun: "I am more interested in foreign exchange futures. I think that with the return of the local port, the foreign exchange market will fluctuate. Not only the Hong Kong dollar, but also the expectations of other surrounding economies will also be affected to a certain extent."
Liang Jinsong: "Oh, what combinations do you want to make?"
Gu Kun pretended to think deeply for a while: "My understanding of the economic situation of Southeast Asian countries varies. After all, I am from Lanzhou, and I am most familiar with Malaysia, followed by Lijiapo, Thailand, and Indonesia.
I think that with the return of Hong Kong, the international community’s estimate of Southeast Asia’s share of industrial transfers in economic globalization should be adjusted. The more deeply involved countries are now, the more they should adjust their expectations.”
Liang Jinsong searched for his own common sense, took a sip of Lafite, and asked tentatively: "As far as I know, Malaysia should be the country that has undertaken the most processing and re-export trade among the surrounding countries -
Lijiapo is the best port for entrepot trade in Southeast Asia. Since 1991, it has brought a further strong share of international transit. Relying on Lijiapo, the Malay Peninsula has made a large number of low-tech, labor-intensive assembly industry layouts.
According to your estimation, you want to short the ringgit? However, the ringgit seems to be the currency in circulation in Lanzhou, so if you are betting against the ringgit, there is no need to go to the Xiangjiang Exchange to scan for goods."
People who do not understand the economic structure of Southeast Asia before the crisis in the 1990s may have difficulty understanding the current situation at that time.
Since the disintegration of Lucia in 1991, due to the strength of Oceania, the process of economic globalization has actually been greatly promoted.
At that time, China had not yet joined the WTO. Therefore, although China's foreign trade was also very developed, the foreign trade that was popular throughout the 1990s was the "inter-industry division of labor" type. For example, the cost of certain products in China was particularly low and it had advantages, so it exported crazily. So-called
"Tens of millions of shirts for one plane" is the extensive form of this era.
As for the "division of labor within the industrial chain", China at that time was completely unable to squeeze into it.
Countries such as Malay and Thailand in Southeast Asia took advantage of Lijiapo's entrepot to undertake a large number of low-tech industrial chain processing of supplied materials. In 1996, Malay's per capita monthly salary exceeded 1,000 ringgit. It was because of this that people at that time
It is already close to the threshold of developed countries.
In addition, these transfers within the industrial chain have also brought a large number of floating populations from developed investment countries, driving the tourism trade between Malaysia and Thailand. These expectations of sustainable growth in the future have jointly resulted in the Thai baht and ringgit being at artificially high levels.
The exchange rate, even the Indonesian rupiah is slightly overvalued.
After July 1997, although China still did not join the WTO, historically the WTO had to wait for 4 years. However, because of the return of Hong Kong, many international evaluation agencies believe that when Hong Kong, an entrepot free trade port, is completely controlled by the mainland,
Afterwards, it will be helpful for the mainland to seize the share of the processing industry within the industrial chain of Malaysia and Thailand, so we need to downplay the economic boosting effect of the processing industry within the industrial chain of Malaysia and Thailand.
In good conscience, although Soros is despicable, his vision is still accurate. If a fly does not bite, the sustainability of Mattei's development was indeed overestimated before, which made him so vulnerable when his confidence collapsed later.
.
As the president of the Asia-Pacific region of Blackstone Investment Fund, Liang Jinsong has to say that his basic skills are still very solid. He has a clear understanding of the current economic fundamentals and situations of various countries, so he feels that Gu Kun's thoughts and his actions are a bit subtle.
The numbers don't match.
"It seems that it is not easy to fool this guy. I want to establish short-selling positions in Thai baht in advance, supplemented by ringgit positions. It is entirely because I know the conclusion in advance, but there is no way to explain this... Forget it,
Or just forcefully find an excuse."
Gu Kun thought to himself.
Although he can directly issue orders on investment operations as a principal, he does not want others to discover his foresight, nor does he want others to mistakenly think that he is colluding with Soros in the future.
Therefore, if you can show yourself that you are capable, you should try your best to act like one.
Gu Kun mentally considered his excuse for a while: "I think your suggestion is not accurate enough. Judging from the strength and potential of intra-industry processing and re-export trade, Malaysia is indeed more overvalued than Thailand. But Thailand's tourism industry is a bubble.
Bigger——
My country, Lanzhou, will make big moves in the next few years. I am sure that it will take away part of the high-end tourism market share from all other Southeast Asian countries. Therefore, the more dependent a country's economy and exchange rate are on tourism.
, the medium and long-term will be hit harder by the rise of the blue side. Based on this judgment, I decided to focus on shorting the short-term Thai baht."
Gu Kun said this, and Liang Jinsong was speechless.
Thailand's dependence on tourism is indeed much higher than that of Malaya.
Looking at the Chinese tour groups in later generations, there are as many groups going to Thailand as dogs, with tens of millions of people flocking there every year. Although there are also many Malay tour groups, they are at least half less than those in Thailand.
Don't you allow others to have confidence in you? If the client is so arrogant that he thinks he can influence the rise and fall of the tourism markets in Southeast Asian countries, then let him do it.
"Tell me about the operating mode you want. We can help you with the specific details." Liang Jinsong was too lazy to persuade.
Anyway, as long as the overall investment policy is determined by the client himself and the trust fund does not make mistakes in the details of the operation, then even if it loses money in the end, the trust fund will not be held responsible.