“The operating model I hope is to start building positions now and buy some Thai baht short orders that can only be redeemed in three to six months.
As for my requirement for your operation, it is that the opening of the position must be concealed. I don’t want to attract people to follow suit, nor do I want to attract the hostility of the Thai people after the devaluation of the Thai baht in the future. We will talk about other details after we have signed all the entrustment agreements and confidentiality clauses.
."
Gu Kun had a showdown with Liang Jinsong about his general idea, but he also paid proper attention to the scope of the showdown.
After all, the two sides are only in the contact stage now, and the current practical information will not be leaked. More details can only be discussed if there are common interests.
"It's my fault, so let's do it this way. If it's convenient for you, come to our company tomorrow and I'll prepare all the relevant documents." Liang Jinsong also knew the rules and stopped it just right.
The reception ended happily. Gu Kun and Liang Jinsong exchanged contact information and made an appointment to chat the next day.
In addition to Liang Jinsong, Gu Kun also collected the business cards of a bunch of other people in the financial industry and paid attention to a few spare tires.
Just in case Liang Jinsong fails to do his job well and the operation is not implemented properly, he can still find spare wheels to spread his bets. You can't put all your eggs in one basket.
On the other hand, it is also because the operation of large funds is more professional and concealed, but it is not easy to be controlled by the client.
There are some small funds and agents that are just empty shells, and their operation skills are relatively blunt, but they can be directly and thoroughly manipulated when they meet big customers.
Therefore, Gu Kun does not rule out the possibility that people using the Blackstone Fund will entrust some funds to learn their operations, and then immediately copy them, using other shell accounts to imitate the operations and expand the size of their positions.
In this way, Blackstone Group and Liang Jinsong may not necessarily know how much money he invested in the end.
You can also pay less fund management fees.
…
The next day, Gu Kun went to the Asia-Pacific headquarters of Blackstone Fund in Xiangjiang.
The Blackstone Fund was established in 1985. Its founder was Peter Peterson, the former Minister of Commerce of Oceania. Later history proved that this fund has withstood financial crises many times and has always been able to reverse the situation in previous financial crises.
Potential to achieve results.
Moreover, this kind of achievement is also the result of real value investment, not the result of hedging and speculation like Soros's Quantum Fund.
Let’s talk a little bit about common sense in the financial investment community. In the investment community, according to whether they respect the “value investment theory”, they can be divided into two groups. The representative who respects value investment is the stock god Buffett. What they pay attention to is discovering real value. Value
Undervalued company.
Blackstone Fund actually belongs to this group, and its performance in the past ten years is actually no worse than Buffett's. However, because it has a shorter life span, its prestige is not as high as Buffett's - Blackstone only began to rise in the late 1980s, and Buffett's golden brand has been around since then.
I started accumulating money in the 1950s and 1960s.
In the financial world, there are many people who have been in the spotlight for more than ten years. Many of them have spotted a major trend that has lasted for more than ten years, but later lost everything. For example, the ancient stock god Peter Lynch is such a representative. But he can compare with Buffett.
The only one who has dominated the world for fifty years is Buffett.
Because the economic cycle is very long, winning for more than ten years may not necessarily make people convinced of you. Winning for a lifetime is really rare.
In addition to the "value investment" faction, the representative of the other faction is Soros. Soros's Quantum Fund does not care about value or worthlessness, they only care about the "herding effect".
Translated in human terms, no matter how bad things Soros thinks, as long as the greed of those who follow the herd can be aroused, there will be room for speculation. No matter how good something is, as long as the panic of those who follow the herd can be aroused, there will be room for short selling.
.
(Actually, this distinction is not very accurate. If you are interested, you can check the relevant information on your own. There is a lot online. I won’t go into the details here to avoid the confusion.)
Gu Kun chose Blackstone Fund, on the one hand, it was a coincidence, and on the other hand, he happened to find a value low point: after this fund responded to the 1998 Southeast Asian financial crisis and the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, its reputation will soar with each wave.
But now, Blackstone only has the prestige of successfully coping with the Oceania stock market crash in 1987, so its status in the world is not high, and the cost of inviting them is not that high, which is just a bargain for Gu Kun.
After more than ten years, people will not look down on hundreds of millions of dollars of unexplained custody funds. If you want to pay management fees and ask others to take custody, they may not accept this business.
After a final discussion, the two parties formally signed an entrustment agreement and clarified the accompanying confidentiality terms.
In the entrustment agreement, the scale of the custody funds is mentioned. It can be added later, but there is at least a threshold and capital verification is required.
Liang Jinsong was really shocked when he saw that the principal amount Gu Kun wanted to entrust was as high as US$400 million.
Of course, Blackstone Fund's Asia-Pacific company also took bigger orders, but Liang Jinsong just didn't expect that Gu Kun would have so much money.
"I was really disrespectful before." Liang Jinsong couldn't ask Gu Kun where the money came from, so he just expressed his respect for the customer's worth.
Gu Kun: "I know what you want to ask. I have no obligation to answer, but I hope that both parties will cooperate more sincerely, so I am willing to tell you: 280 million of the money belongs to me personally, and there is another 120 million
Ten million, it belongs to the Lanfang royal family. I'll stop here. As for how the money was earned, you probably aren't interested."
"No, no, no, of course I'm not interested. We don't inquire about customers' privacy." Liang Jinsong quickly expressed his position and complimented, "I didn't expect that your strength in Lan Fang is so strong that even the royal family has no means of restraint.
Just trust me and hand over the money to you, anonymous agent."
Gu Kun and the Lanfang royal family made all this money, of course, by relying on their previous principal and on the Nasdaq stock market from November last year to July this year.
In November last year, Gu Kun's total principal and income on Nasdaq totaled US$150 million. As the market continues to strengthen, even a steady purchase of the Nasdaq portfolio
If you don't pick individual stocks at the right time with a fund, it's easy to earn 30% in eight months.
Gu Kun added a little more safety leverage - in fact, sometimes it can't even be called leverage, it can only be called margin trading, because his leverage multiple is less than three times.
Calculated in this way, his 150 million turned into more than 300 million eight months later. The Lanfang royal family's initial capital of 50 million also gradually increased to 120 million.
Gu Kun also said hello to Zhu Youdong in advance this time, and withdrew all the 120 million US dollars from the Lanfang royal family, and 280 million from his own more than 300 million, leaving a little 300 to 500 million.
It was used as an emergency back-up in Nasdaq. Then 400 million yuan was used to deal with the Thai baht crisis.
At this moment, he concealed other processes and only revealed the composition of the money to Liang Jinsong. In fact, it was also to show his muscles and pretend to be powerful:
The Lanfang royal family has now enjoyed the benefits of investment with me, so I completely trust you. As long as you work for me with your heart, you can win the friendship of the Lanfang royal family at the same time.
Liang Jinsong verified the current trends in the foreign exchange market, combined with Gu Kun's capital size, made an estimate, and analyzed:
"With your current capital size, if you build a short-selling position in Thai baht that will expire in three to six months, I can help you complete the position within three days if you don't add leverage.
But if you want to increase leverage, you have to determine the time required to open a position based on the total capital leveraged. If it is too fast, the baht will rise sharply in the short term, and the cost of opening a position will also increase significantly."
"Then what is the safer leverage ratio you suggest?" Gu Kun is not a professional on this question. He only knows that he can make money by shorting the middle-line Thai baht, but he lacks the ability to calculate the fluctuations in the middle.
Liang Jinsong did not answer immediately, but asked someone to do some calculations. It took him a while before he gave Gu Kun a preliminary opinion:
"I think that the total amount of funds leveraged after leverage should not exceed US$2 billion. Of course, this is just a preliminary calculation. If you give us some time, we will adjust our expectations based on the market situation. We will also notify you of new situations.
You, further increase the authorization limit."
Whether and how much leverage a trust fund needs to be leveraged must be explicitly authorized by the client.
No matter how powerful the agency authority is, it is impossible for the agent to make its own decisions on the issue of leverage ratio. The risk is too great. The agent usually only helps the client with some specific details and only performs micro-operations.
Take responsibility.
Gu Kun took a sip of tea and thought for a moment: "Five times is right, 2 billion is not a lot. Just tell me how long it will take to build a position with 2 billion?"
Liang Jinsong analyzed it professionally: "If it's 2 billion, it will take about a month - don't take too long. In the capital market, the most fearful thing is that the flock will see the trend and follow suit. So 500 million will take 3 days, and 2 billion will take 3 days."
It has to be a month, it’s not linear doubling.”
Gu Kun's operation is option shorting, so specifically, it is similar to currently "borrowing" a large amount of Thai baht to buy U.S. dollars, and then selling enough Thai baht to return it to the other party three to six months later.
In this way, if the Thai baht exchange rate has plummeted when he "repays the baht", he can repay less.
But if he "melts the Thai baht" too fast at present, it will also cause fluctuations in the spot market of the Thai baht at this moment. Therefore, this time cannot be rushed.
"Okay, let's give it a month. Safety is the most important thing." Gu Kun agreed with the other party's operating rhythm.
His idea is very clear: He cannot confront Soros's first wave of offensive, because he simply does not have that much capital to compete with Soros.
All that can be done now is to open a position in advance. Then when Soros has not yet shipped the goods, ship the goods in advance and share some soup.
Similar to the stock market, after knowing the inside information of the dealer, you can hold it before the dealer pulls it up, and sell it in advance before the dealer reaches the highest level. In this way, although the operation is in the same direction as the dealer, you can still take advantage of the time difference.
, take some meat from the banker's mouth.
What Gu Kun hopes is that Soros will make less money from the Thai baht incident and that he can gain some strength. In this way, if Soros really wants to attack the Hong Kong dollar next year, he will have the strength to beat Soros to the point of vomiting.