The day after Gu Kun was interviewed, various reports were flying all over the place.
"The number one foreign exchange investment guru in this city was born."
"Gu Kun, the giant of Lanfang, was bearish on the Thai baht market and gained 4 billion Hong Kong dollars."
Some shameless media, regardless of the fact that Gu Kun is actually from Lanfang, described him as a rising star in the Hong Kong investment community just because he had operations in Hong Kong and was entrusted with the Asia-Pacific subsidiary of Blackstone Fund headquartered in Hong Kong.
The very few media outlets that received Gu Kun's personal Q&A that day disclosed some detailed and shocking information:
"Gu Kun told this reporter: The current correction of the Thai baht's exchange rate is a return to normal value. He also euphemistically criticized the Thai baht's previous strategy of 'forcibly binding the exchange rate to the US dollar' as unreasonable and unable to truly reflect the fact that the international competitiveness of the Thai economy has declined.
"This bearish market is a repayment of historical debts and should not be interpreted in a panic."
"The Thai baht exchange rate has temporarily stabilized since Wednesday this week and is expected to stop falling within this week. Gu Kun told our reporter that he hopes that after the return of the real value of the Thai baht, the Thai tourism market can be reactivated and Thai tourism will be restored to foreign countries.
The attraction of mid- to low-end tourists has helped Thailand’s cultural tourism industry find its new positioning.”
For a time, almost everyone in Xiangjiang, from financial investors to ordinary melon-eating people, had seen relevant reports to some extent, triggering heated discussions in the streets.
"Holy shit! Isn't Gu Kun that world superstar? I heard that he later returned to Lanzhou and became the richest man in Lanzhou, a cultural and tourism tycoon. But why is he so good at investing?"
The vast majority of people at the bottom with little education will probably have this reaction.
However, as long as there is a social hot spot, there will definitely be people who like to give pointers, and they will help people around them solve their problems for free, and by the way, they will create a sense of presence in the small circle that "I am more knowledgeable than you."
Some people who read a lot of high-end financial magazines and financial columns helped spread the word: "You are uneducated at first glance! I am different. I read a detailed interview with Gu Kun in "Da Gong Bao".
The reason why Gu Kun is bearish on the prospects of Thailand's tourism and processing export industries is because Gu Kun is a master in these fields! You poor people have never been to Lanfang, right? I have been there! There are resorts and international conferences.
The center, the aircraft carrier theme park, and the maritime museum are all high-end, and they are all Gu Kun's business!
Also, don’t you know that Lijiapo’s position as the first entrepot in Southeast Asia has also been challenged in recent years? The Malays have joined forces with Maersk, and Gu Kun’s Lanfang Port has joined forces with COSCO. I heard that Gu Kun’s Lanfang Port has joined forces with COSCO.
Kun's Lanfang Port has grown rapidly. Now Lijiapo can only focus on container ship transshipment. Lanfang has taken away several percent of the COSCO bulk carrier transshipment business.
In this case, Gu Kun is equivalent to the invisible hand that stirs up Southeast Asia tourism, import and export shipping, and is an industry benchmark. He himself has a certain competitive relationship with Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand in these two fields, how could he not understand
Weaknesses of competitors? Therefore, this is called an investor who specializes in the industry, not because he is good at everything he invests in, but because the things he invests in are related to his old industry!"
It is useless to say these words directly in the media. People who eat melons will not be able to understand them directly. They must be spread word of mouth under social hot spots.
Just like in the WeChat era, some "secrets" need to be shared in a "love each other and family" group in order to be brainwashed.
In the following days at the end of August, and even throughout September, similar topics grew virally and were implanted piecemeal in the minds of millions of people in Hong Kong and Southeast Asia.
Everyone accepted that "Gu Kun was right, just because he really understood his opponent, and even his own construction would squeeze the opponent's survival prospects, so he went short by the way."
This is the most upright business competition. No one will hate you if you make money.
It's like you are running a company and have developed an epoch-making new technology. You know that when this new technology is put on the market, it will devalue everything of your old-generation competitors.
So, if you short-sell a competitor's company's stock in advance, it's not illegal, nor is it causing hatred, right? This is perfectly natural.
This is called making a sign and building a successful archway. Not only do you have to make money, but you also have to make money while standing.
…
While Gu Kun is sowing smoke bombs in Hong Kong, the anxious Thai people will of course also pay attention to what forces in the world are currently making money from the depreciation of the Thai baht.
On August 28, the relevant financial departments in Bangkok.
Ministry-level executive Zhu Lawanggong frowned and looked at a document in front of him.
In front of him stood a small group of close aides, and on the visitor's sofa in the distance sat an invited wealthy businessman.
With a muffled "pop" sound, Chulawangkong slapped the copy of the interview on the table, then took off his glasses and rubbed the bridge of his sore nose.
After calming down for a while, Chulawangkong seemed to remember that there were guests, so he put on a kind and humble expression, endured his discomfort and asked:
"Mr. Xu, have you read all these reports? Do you think it is possible for us to use our last reserves to temporarily stabilize the Thai baht? What do Gu Kun mean by those words?"
(All of them spoke Thai of course)
The wealthy businessman on the sofa opposite Chulawangkorn is the richest man in Thailand and the richest man in Southeast Asia outside Hong Kong, Xu Shubiao, the boss of the beverage tycoon Red Bull Group.
Mr. Xu is over seventy years old. He is an overseas Chinese born in Hailan Island, China. He later immigrated before World War II and became a Thai national.
Now that Thailand is facing a financial crisis, Chulawangkorn also needs to invite such big people to come to control the situation and listen to their opinions.
Mr. Xu was used to seeing strong winds and waves, so he didn't get angry in a hurry. He just replied slowly: "What Gu Kun meant is already obvious to me.
First of all, he expressed that he did not want to be our enemy, and it was just normal business competition. He felt that the tourism and re-export industries he built in Lanzhou could impact the tourism and re-export industries of Malaysia and Thailand, so he did not want to waste and took advantage of the trend to short.
us.
Secondly, he also euphemistically expressed how much he thinks the Thai baht, and even the future ringgit, are overvalued - he thinks it is more than 20%. I also think that if the Thai baht only depreciates at 20% this time, it will be
With healthy depreciation, there is still room for improvement.
Although the 20% depreciation will make the foreign debt planned in US dollars repay 20% out of thin air, the decline in international competitiveness caused by our previous 23% minimum wage increase for workers can be compensated for, and our exports can resume rapid growth.
, the number of foreign tourists will also increase significantly. Overall, our total foreign exchange earnings growth should be more than 20%.
Finally, Gu Kun's words also had the meaning of flexing muscles and hoping that everyone would settle down. He was obviously saying that compared with their counterparts in Thailand, the advantage of our tourism industry in Thailand lies in its scale, so we should be convinced
We are willing to be in the low-end budget travel market where we are looking for bargains. Lanfang is small in scale and will focus on high-end boutique tours. If we acquiesce in this division of labor, Lanfang will no longer compete with Thailand's tourism industry."
After listening to Mr. Xu's insightful analysis, Chulawanggong finally calmed down a bit.
Indeed, if it can be ensured that the exchange rate only declines moderately, it will still be good for the Thai economy.
Currency depreciation increases exports. This is a truth that all primary school students understand. The previous "forcibly binding the exchange rate to the US dollar" was ultimately a lazy policy. It was a small country that did not have enough talented exchange rate control professionals. It was afraid of being cheated, so it saved the trouble.
Son.
Chulawangkong himself also knows how many hidden dangers the binding system has accumulated.
After thinking about it, Chulawangkorn asked: "Mr. Xu, do you think it is feasible for us to use the remaining US dollar foreign exchange to purchase Thai baht to stabilize the exchange rate now that the exchange rate has dropped by 25%?"
Since Gu Kun has made his statement, I think he thinks the Thai baht has reached a reasonable price, so he won’t break his promise and add insult to injury, right?”
The previous resistance has consumed a large amount of Thailand's US dollar reserves, but it has not been completely exhausted. The country always has to keep a hand.
Especially when you know that depreciation is inevitable, the cost of saving some money and waiting to protect the market after a wave of depreciation is much lower than protecting the market from the beginning——
The reason is very simple. When the Thai baht is at the original price, if you buy so many short selling orders of Thai baht, you have to pay US dollars at the original price. Now that the Thai baht has fallen by 25%, if you want to place a selling order of Thai baht with the same selling volume, you can spend 25% less.
Dollar.
Any country that wants to protect the market will allocate its foreign exchange reserves in proportion and protect the market in segments.
Xu Shubiao pondered for a while, and he did not dare to provide wrong advice to Zhu Bu, so he just said cautiously: "Based on my experience, since Gu Kun semi-publicly hinted at reconciliation in a high-profile manner, he should not attack Thai Baht again.
Otherwise, his previous statement was a provocation and deepened hatred in vain. It would be better not to say anything.
However, Gu Kun will not be greedy and add insult to injury, which does not mean that other international hot money forces will not add insult to injury. The world is very diverse, and there are many short-selling forces. How much influence can Gu Kun have?
Another thing that puzzles me is that since Gu Kun has shown goodwill and feels that the Thai baht has fallen to the bottom, why doesn't he close his position? Minister Zhu, I hope you will investigate this carefully before making a decision. I just
Can remind you to come here."
Chulawangkong nodded in agreement, and then sternly questioned his subordinates: "Has Gu Kun made any shipments in the past few days? If the position has not been closed, why not close the position? Let's investigate as soon as possible."
An eager subordinate quickly replied: "I have already investigated in advance. The orders Gu Kun placed before were medium and long-term investments, at least three to six months of options. He will not be able to close them all until November or December."
Position. The position cannot be closed before it expires."
"He is still doing medium and long-term investment? It seems that he is really a value investor, not a speculator. If you are a speculator for such a long time, aren't you afraid that something will happen in the middle and you will get married?" Zhu Lawanggong thought to himself based on his professional experience.
Of course, he was not a reckless person. After that, he spent another day or two intensively investigating the situation.
Finally, on August 30, after reporting to his leadership, he decided to use emergency reserves to protect the market again.
As expected, the Thai baht's exchange rate stabilized at the end of this week. After falling for seven or eight consecutive days, it ushered in its first period of stability.
Thailand's relevant official media also quickly released a series of reports that reassured confidence, overwhelmingly claiming that the Thai baht exchange rate had stabilized and asking international hot money not to flee in a hurry.
Chulawangkorn even applied for an emergency interest rate increase from the Central Bank of Thailand (Harmony), directly increasing the annual interest rate on Thai baht savings from 10% to 12.5% on Friday, and further raised it to 15% on Sunday.
In his view, an annual deposit interest rate of 15% can generally offset an annual depreciation rate of around 20%.
Because the interest rate on U.S. dollar deposits is very low today, even if the Thai baht is depreciating, as long as the money deposited in the Bank of Thailand is supported by extremely high interest rates, those less sensitive and stable funds can still be retained.
A run on foreign capital will occur.
Gu Kun was unable to close his position because the option ban had not yet been lifted. However, many other investors who had tried their luck before and got the bet right saw that the Thai baht had stabilized and closed their positions one after another.
For example, bosses Xiao Li and Xiao Zheng from Xiangjiang, as well as boss Kong Shangzhong and Kong Shangzhong, who was previously known as the second master of foreign exchange investment in the city, closed their positions and shipped goods when the price only dropped by 25%.