Chapter 67 Although I smoke, drink, drink, tattoo and sell short, I know that I am a value investor
After receiving the exact news of the plummeting Thai baht, Gu Kun did not behave like other investors, feeling uncontrollably happy because he had made the right bet.
He pretended to be calm for two or three days, until his wife noticed the change in the market and took the initiative to mention it to him.
It was August 26, Tuesday, and Lin Ying had the last week of summer vacation. Early that morning, the couple went to the Ocean Park in Xiangjiang to play again.
In fact, they have already been to Ocean Park twice, but the summer vacation is almost over, and Lin Ying will not think of coming to Xiangjiang in the future, so they will play again before leaving.
Halfway through watching the dolphin show, Lin Ying was eating popcorn and suddenly asked: "I heard that the Thai baht has plummeted? Didn't you buy a lot of options to short the Thai baht? You should have made a lot of money, right?"
In 1997, the Internet was mostly popular in Europe and the United States. Only Koreans in Asia were accustomed to reading news online, and even Japanese people rarely used it. Therefore, people who did not have the habit of watching TV news or reading newspapers reacted to foreign news that had no immediate interests.
Not fast.
If it were a careless little girl, she might not know about this until the Thai baht plummeted for a week, and maybe she would have to ask what currency the Thai baht is.
Lin Ying was already quick to respond. After all, she was a female college student, and she vaguely knew that her boyfriend was involved in this business. She paid attention to the news on Monday.
"It did fall. It fell by 18% on Friday. It stabilized over the two days over the weekend and did not break the 20% mark. But it fell again on Monday, with the cumulative total reaching 22%. Today it is 25%. It is estimated that it will continue to fall again in the future.
Stay stable for a few days. It’s not convenient to talk about this here. Let’s talk about it when we go back.”
Gu Kun spoke freely and recited many family treasures.
Lin Ying knew that her wealth would not be exposed, and there would be no one around her. She still lowered her voice and asked, "How much did you earn in total? Tell me."
Gu Kun: "Five hundred million, U.S. dollars—350 million is mine, and 150 million belongs to the royal family."
On the first day when the Thai baht plummeted as mentioned earlier, Gu Kun earned 3.5 billion U.S. dollars by relying on five times leverage. That was for all the funds he invested, that is, the principal of 400 million U.S. dollars.
However, as mentioned before, only 280 million of the 400 million was his own, and the rest was entrusted to him by Grand Duke Zhu Youdong. Therefore, after making money, he had to pay it back in proportion. At that time, his net profit was only 2:45
100 million.
It was not until today, when the Thai baht exchange rate dropped to 25% from last Thursday, that Gu Kun truly earned 350 million for his own share.
When Lin Ying heard this, her pupils suddenly zoomed in and out a few times, then widened in size, and she quickly covered her mouth to prevent herself from screaming.
Is her boyfriend so rebellious?
After a long time, she reminded in a low and trembling voice with rapid breathing: "With so much money, why do you still act like you have nothing to do? What are you going to do now, sell it immediately and get the money? Let's not look at it.
Go back, I’ve seen it twice anyway.”
How can Lin Ying still have the heart to watch the dolphin show at this time?
Gu Kun: "Why are you anxious? Calm down. I have my own arrangements. It's not the right time to sell. When I first opened the position, it would take at least three months to clear it. We are doing value investment and long-term investment. We must pay attention to the position!"
"
Lin Ying didn't understand investing, so she didn't know what "value investing" and "herd investing" were, but she was used to Gu Kun's wisdom.
Every time she sees her husband being so sure, she feels like she is holding the Dinghai Shenzhen. She has a backbone in her heart and feels an inexplicable sense of pride.
"I'll listen to you anyway, but I guess you won't need me." Lin Ying sighed and snuggled into her arms meekly.
Gu Kun patted her on the back and said, "Calm down and just treat it as a show. I believe that soon the media will find out that I have made a lot of money, and they will want to interview me."
The gossip media in Xiangjiang, in addition to covering entertainment news, also like to interview rising financial investment stars.
After all, the mainland media doesn't like to promote "stock gods" in the official media, because the mainland thinks that kind of values are unhealthy. But Xiangjiang has no such concerns. As long as someone suddenly makes a fortune and gives advice, people will immediately flock to him.
sought after.
However, if you don’t want to be famous and are afraid of attracting hatred, it is possible to become an invisible rich man and hide your investment performance.
Even when the Thai baht crisis broke out in history, even Soros himself kept a relatively low profile. He didn't want to attract hatred and just wanted to make a fortune silently. Later, it was so tragic that Soros had to deal with it publicly.
But Gu Kun obviously wants to go in the opposite direction from Soros on how to deal with the media.
In this way, he could not only make money, but also draw a clear line between him and Soros.
This idea may seem unbelievable to normal people, but Gu Kun has a clever plan to ensure its realization.
…
When Gu Kun and Lin Ying were enjoying themselves in Ocean Park, the inside information about "Which investment giants in Southeast Asia have benefited from the Thai baht crisis?" basically spread among the top financial media in Hong Kong.
.
The first people to spread the word are those giants who follow the trend quickly and quickly, because these people's operations are too hasty and they don't think about concealment at all. Basically, it is known to the world as soon as they make money on the weekend.
"Mr. Xiao Li urgently opened a position on the 22nd to follow the trend and made 300 million!"
"Mr. Zheng also followed the order, a little late, and earned 80 million!"
"Well, rich people are rich people with many resources and information. Even if they are not prepared beforehand and wait for the market to come and then follow the trend, chasing the rise and killing the fall, they can still make so much. No wonder the rich are getting richer.
It is unreasonable for the poor to become poorer and poorer!"
The figures mentioned in the gossip are all denominated in Hong Kong dollars, so they are not much when converted into US dollars.
The princes of these big families usually take the family's money and wait until the Thai baht has fallen by 18% or even 20% from last Thursday before they open a position. If you really think about it, they don't use leverage.
Under such circumstances, he can only earn 5 to 7 percentage points, which is certainly not comparable to Gu Kun, who has earned 25 points.
Those who really made more money were those who had opened positions before Thursday. And Gu Kun was by no means the only such person.
At any time, there will always be people who are bullish and people who are bearish. Every transaction has a 50% probability. There must be people who accidentally bet on the right. It’s just that these people’s previous position building operations are much more concealed, and the exposure is less than that of fast forwarding.
The wealthy young men who leave quickly are slower.
On Monday, the day before Gu Kun was exposed, another piece of news about a wealthy man in the local area making huge profits was also exposed and quickly spread, making countless people jealous.
According to the routine of Hong Kong movies, the higher the status of a person, the later he will appear. In the investment circle, the more people earn, the later they will be exposed.
"Have you heard that boss Kong, the luxury tycoon, made a full 1 billion Hong Kong dollars this time? He is really lucky this time. His total wealth is estimated to be between 5 billion and 10 billion.
I won hundreds of millions by betting on Thai baht. In just a few days, my total family wealth increased by 15%!"
It turns out that the boss Kong mentioned in this gossip is named Kong Shangzhong. He is a well-known tycoon in the luxury industry, jewelry industry, and cultural tourism industry in Hong Kong. He usually pays more attention to investment.
The reason why he was bearish on the Thai baht in advance this time was because he had previously been bearish on the potential for the development of Thailand's tourism industry and Thailand's ability to earn foreign exchange, so he had already established a short position on the Thai baht.
He opened a position even earlier than Gu Kun, which was a normal investment. Unexpectedly, he encountered Gu Kun and Soros who were also shorting the Thai baht, so he got lucky and made more money than expected. Even he himself did not dare to imagine.
It's a pity that because he didn't expect to earn so much, he didn't dare to put all his net worth into it, and even slightly doubled the leverage.
So even though I made 25% of the investment amount this time, and then doubled the leverage, I only made a few hundred million Hong Kong dollars, which is just over 150 million dollars when converted into U.S. dollars.
However, before Gu Kun's achievements were exposed, Boss Kong's investment performance was already enough to make him proud of Xiangjiang, and he received crazy interviews from the financial media, which really made him feel very high-spirited.
It's a pity that this kind of scenery only lasted for one day, because today, that is, Tuesday, Gu Kun's investment performance was finally discovered by the media, so soon no one cared about Boss Kong, and instead flocked to interview Gu Kun.
With Lin Ying in his arms and bodyguards far behind him, Gu Kun was blocked by people from the financial media at the elevator entrance to the presidential suite at the Peninsula Hotel.
"Gu Sheng, I heard that you made a total of 4 billion Hong Kong dollars from this investment, which is three or four times more than the second place in this city. Is this true?"
"What do you want to say about your success? You have always appeared as a world superstar and a big boss in the entertainment industry. Why do you have such a deep understanding of foreign exchange investment?"
"Are you the main trader in this Thai baht crisis? Were you the one who suppressed the Thai baht market?"
The series of questions frightened Lin Ying. She huddled next to Gu Kun, daring not to make a sound like a kitten.
Gu Kun cleared his throat: "Don't believe the rumors. I don't want to say more about the amount of profit, and it's not all my money. Some of it is just an investment on behalf of the Lanfang royal family. As for the investment philosophy, there are no rules for the world.
Superstars don't know how to invest. A ruler is short and an inch is long.
Because I have a thorough understanding of the long-term development prospects of the cultural and tourism industry in various countries, I feel that the Thai baht is artificially high. The previous practice of forcibly binding the exchange rate of the Thai baht to the US dollar is irresponsible and does not reflect its true value.
, that’s why we have to go short.”
A reporter from "Da Gong Bao" came out from the crowd and put the microphone to Gu Kun's mouth: "Then what data do you use to judge the downward pressure on the Thai baht? Do you think this wave of market conditions has been fully released?"
Gu Kun smiled: "How do you put this? Investment is risky. I don't make quantitative judgments. It is not rigorous and may disrupt the market. I can only show you a few simple data: Thailand's export volume the year before last
Growth is 18%, compared with almost zero last year. But currency exchange rates are not reflecting these declines.
In the same way, last year Thailand’s minimum wage was raised by 23% compared to the previous year. This increase in labor costs has led to an increase in tourism costs and a decrease in the scale of international tourism. This is also due to the previous forcible binding to the U.S. dollar.
This method is reflected in the exchange rate.
Therefore, the current decline of more than 20%, I think it is reasonable to repay the debt that was forcibly tied to historical debts. Whether there will be more declines, I do not make a judgment. Personally, I adhere to value investing.
I just hope to earn my fair share of the money I deserve from the process of the Thai baht reflecting its true value."
Gu Kun pays great attention to his wording and emphasizes himself as a "value investor" who earns real value returns.
In this way, we can gradually draw a clear line with Soros.
After all, not everyone who is bearish on the Thai baht is unscrupulous.
You are really artificially high, I think you are going to return, so buy a little short, which is always reasonable, right?