Later, Gu Kun also read many articles on public accounts, complaining that "in the past forty years of China's opening up, how many times have the Chinese people been able to change their social class without thinking?"
A common inventory is considered to be seven times: 77 resumption of college entrance examination, 80 self-employed, 84 township enterprises, 92 limited companies, 96 stock market giants/Internet entrepreneurship, 01 resource speculation after joining the WTO (being a coal boss/having a mine at home), 06 and later
Always speculating in real estate.
Other mobile Internet/sharing economy/blockchain mass entrepreneurship, and all the stock market bull markets since 1996, cannot be regarded as absolute big trends. Because those that require technical content are not guaranteed to make money, but more people will lose money.
Only those big storms that have accumulated 7 times in 40 years belong to the category of "as long as you are brave and have no brains, you can make money with a high probability. Even if your skills are too poor to gamble with a small probability, at least you will not lose."
Just like if you took the college entrance examination in 1977, if you didn't pass the exam, you would lose some review time at most. If you failed, you would lose a few years of self-employed township enterprises. Those people had no capital to lose.
In the first wave of the bull market in 1996, no matter how unlucky you were when buying stocks, you could at least protect your capital or earn less. As for 01 buying mines and 06 speculating in real estate, let alone buying stocks - not to mention having no capital, as long as you were brave at that time
, If you dare to mortgage your home or other things, and use any means to get leveraged loans, you must have the capital, and the financing environment is very loose.
In the final analysis, those who have no capital are afraid of death and dare not risk their wealth and life.
This is dead money that can be earned with only courage, so it is rare. In a society on the upward trajectory, a wave of such opportunities will only appear once every six years on average.
Other times, if you want to gamble your life, you have no way to do it. You still need to have IQ and micromanagement at the same time.
The next wave of opportunities that Gu Kun is encountering now is obviously the sixth wave of the above-mentioned "7 trends in 40 years".
Taking advantage of the downturn in Southeast Asia in 1998, we comprehensively promoted investment and construction in areas with sluggish demand, and even reached out to major mining exploration companies to sell minerals to China aggressively after 2001.
The local oil fields in Lanfang can be just one component of it. There are many things that can be captured in the entire Borneo.
God cannot take it, and you must suffer the consequences.
Once this pie is drawn, COSCO's senior management will probably be able to understand it a little bit. Because although they don't know the history, they can understand Gu Kun's analysis.
He Lan hesitated for a while and decided to play it safe first: "Do you think global mineral resources are likely to see a general rise in the future? In recent years, crude oil prices and the like have risen a lot."
Gu Kun: "That is inevitable. The price of crude oil in the past few years was too low. It was not a normal market economy, but a policy market controlled by Oceania - that wave of policy markets originated from the overall decline in mineral resources that began in 1985.
.When I look at international relations analysis institutions in China, this research is rarely mentioned, but I have seen a lot of useful analysis in think tanks in Europe and other places.
Now working backwards, it is obvious that the price of resources at that time was generally depressed. This was a lose-lose strategy implemented by Oceania in order to make Lucia decline. The purpose was to make Lucia, which relied heavily on resource exports, lose blood and collapse. Saudi Arabia
It also suffered huge losses for this reason. It can even be said that Saddam could not hold back his cold hands on Kuwait, and he was the one who suffered the consequences.
Therefore, even though oil prices have tripled in three or four years since 1994, I still feel that they have not risen far enough. There is no need to worry about the turning point."
He Lan: "In terms of oil, I trust your judgment, but what about other mineral resources? Are there any major benefits?"
Gu Kun: "You should know that China has been working hard to join the WTO in the past two years, right?"
He Lan: "Of course we have been working hard on this for a long time, but at present it seems that the differences are too big and there is no hope of achieving it."
Gu Kun: "I believe in China's determination on this issue, and also believe in China's potential to fully integrate into the division of labor within the global industrial chain. According to my observation, with China's economic size and productivity scale, the future world is destined to be a
The era of 'what the Chinese sell is cheap, and what the Chinese buy is expensive'.
Therefore, the overall decline in the price of industrial finished products and the overall increase in the price of industrial raw materials will further narrow the scissor gap space reserved for the global intermediate processing industry, forcing the manufacturing industry of all countries that do not have strict cost control and labor squeeze, will be
The general trend of the world.”
"Everything the Chinese buy is expensive? What the Chinese sell is cheap? This... this is too pitiful, but I really think you are right." He Lan subconsciously felt a little conflicted about Gu Kun's simple and crude expression, emotionally.
Unacceptable.
But after calming down, she had to admit that her words were rude.
What does China rely on to intervene in the division of labor within the global industrial chain?
At least for now, I rely on a simple and crude sentence: My workers are five times cheaper than you! (Compared to Europe, America and Japan)
With China's industrial production scale, it is definitely possible to cause global mineral resources to surge and last for several years.
After He Lan figured it out, he sighed: "Xiao Gu, it's actually a bit unfair for you to tell me about this matter. If there is such a big game and such good follow-up pieces, you can talk to Mr. Ye directly, we
If you are still afraid that you won’t be able to eat it, then at least the top leaders of our COSCO head office and the larger top leaders of state-owned enterprises can cooperate with you.”
Gu Kun smiled easily: "Of course I know that telling you is overkill - but for me, first of all, safety comes first. Secondly, I just need you to take on the responsibility for a few months, so help me put the first priority first."
The stalls for the period were spread out.
All I need to do is get a loan worth several billion yuan first, and take advantage of the opportunity to take advantage of the opportunity to secure land. The rest can be done slowly. I believe that Mr. Ye will have been promoted by then, and between us
There won’t be any non-business transactions in the world, isn’t that good?”
He Lan's heart trembled, and she finally realized the core interests that Gu Kun was worried about.
For the sake of safety, Gu Kun always ensures a single line of contact.
To put it bluntly, Gu Kun also knew that there were many people in China and not everyone could keep secrets. He was also not sure whether anyone from Oceania would come to spy or cause sabotage.
However, the first criterion for any confidentiality work is "single line of contact".
Even if Oceania wants to spy, as long as no third person in China knows Gu Kun's true motives and advance plans except He Lan and Boss Ye, then Gu Kun will only need to ensure that these two people keep their mouths shut and are reliable.
It would be nice if the behind-the-scenes deals of selling favors were limited to this scope.
As for the results, whether the "Isakov" will really be sold to private gaming companies in Aoxian County in the future (I don't know if those cruise gaming companies will have shares in COSCO, Gu Kun doesn't know, either)
I dare not ask), or what happens during the delivery of other non-commercial benefits.
Anyway, even if Oceania does send a spy, it will only come to the conclusion that "He Lan/so-and-so is eager to perform meritorious deeds."
The level of motivation cannot be traced to Gu Kun.
At least Gu Kun was passive. He was motivated by righteous indignation after being stimulated by Wall Street's financial dogs. He did not plan it carefully and had been planning it for several years.
Just like the difference in motive positioning between second-degree murder and first-degree murder in the Oceania Criminal Code.
"It seems that we need to hire a few more bodyguards. I will tell the boss about this in private. If there are such big expected benefits and a loan of several billion, and the project is launched first, there shouldn't be a big problem.
In the final analysis, even if something happens, we are just a person who laxly reviewed the contract and signed the contract and was deceived. If you want to make meritorious deeds, you have to take risks." He Lan sighed and could only accept this fact.
As an aside, according to China's Criminal Law, if a person in charge of a state-owned enterprise is deceived at work, it may also constitute a crime.
According to Article 167 of the Criminal Law: "The directly responsible person in charge of a state-owned company, enterprise, or institution was defrauded due to serious irresponsibility in the process of signing and performing the contract, resulting in serious damage to national interests.
act of causing losses" constitutes the crime of "being deceived by dereliction of duty in signing and performing contracts".
If Gu Kun gets a loan today by drawing big pie, the future project prospects are not as good as Gu Kun boasted, then He Lan will theoretically commit this crime.
Of course, this is just a hypothesis. In fact, with Gu Kun's strength, he will certainly not cause any trouble for his partners.
This crime is generally sentenced to less than three years. Even if "the national interests have suffered particularly heavy losses", the maximum sentence is seven years, which cannot be broken through the rule of law.
As long as Gu Kun does not give He Lan any benefits, has no black money, and does not constitute other crimes, it will be seven years at most.
This is also the reason why the other party dares to take a gamble. After all, if the bet is right, the political achievements will be very rich.
…
In Hujiang, Gu Kun paid homage to his early years at this rhythm and unblocked several key joints a little.
Then, with the project planned on paper and a very low down payment ratio, I got a letter of intent for an infrastructure loan worth billions (the formal loan will be released in steps after the project starts)
I won’t go into the specific details of the unblocking process, it’s basically the type of “if the other party is deceived by him, he will be charged with being deceived”.
But Gu Kun would never lie.
The Design Institute of his alma mater, Jiaotong University, was also very helpful in giving him a preliminary and most general plan and project volume estimate without even receiving any design fees.
The old dean of the design institute, who was already very familiar with Gu Kun, personally reported the approximate amount of funds needed to Gu Kun.
When Gu Kun saw the numbers, he was slightly surprised, because almost every project required money that was cheaper than he had expected.
"You can buy this cross-sea bridge from Lanfang to Sematan for more than 6 billion yuan? Why is it so cheap?"
"You can see the design plan yourself." The other party did not explain to him. After all, Gu Kun had also studied marine engineering for three years.
Gu Kun browsed it carefully and found that his design experience was still not as good as that of professional designers with many years of experience.
Ultimately, it is because the sea conditions between Lampang Island and Sematan in the northwest suburbs of Kuching are too calm, and the seabed is very shallow. A long section of the bridge deck can even be made into a seawall type, directly surrounding it.
Weirs and dams save money compared to piled bridges.
Gu Kun's previous comparison was with the Ark Bay Cross-sea Bridge. Ark Bay had to take into account the annual rise and fall of the Qiantang River tide, and it could not be blocked directly by building an embankment, otherwise the embankment would be washed away by the ebb and flow. Gu Kun's plan required
The money used is also a few percent cheaper.
God is really helping me.
In the same way, water diversion projects and other seabed laying projects have become cheaper because of this - the Jiaotong University Design Institute has detailed seabed terrain data around Lanfang, which Gu Kun personally measured and sold to them a few years ago.
.
They have long demonstrated that the area around Lanfang is the shallowest and the undercurrent is the slowest. The main body of Lanfang Island was originally formed by the sediment brought by the Sarawak River and deposited on the coral reef. It is connected to the main island of Borneo by a dark sand shoal.
It couldn't be more normal.
Gu Kun didn't have time to look at the cost reductions one by one. He just made a request:
"Can we provide a yin-yang contract at that time? The money and loans will be based on the actual price. But when bragging about the scale of investment to the outside world, I hope to have a high-quality quotation. Otherwise, the investment money is too small, and I will not
I'm embarrassed to brag to the Malaysians and ask them to exchange benefits."