History has quietly entered late spring in March, and the southern country is already full of vitality.
The reason why Zhu Jingye was killed was that he leaked the movements of the Lanfang royal family fund and Gu Kun's own funds, which had a negative impact on the subsequent "Southeast Asian Financial Self-Defense".
Of course, Gu Kun had to act in a full-scale role, and he could not let Zhu Jingye die in vain. He immediately changed the focus of his work from stimulating investment with the Malays to build infrastructure, and shifted back to currency protection.
Five months have passed since the Thai baht crisis, and Gu Kun has once again returned to Hong Kong with a high profile. His status in the world is also very different from half a year ago.
The entire Xiangjiang River, up and down, felt the unsettling silence before the mountain rain was about to come.
Liang Jinsong, President of Blackstone Fund Asia Pacific, personally went to Kai Tak Airport to greet this major client, and immediately reported the current market situation to Gu Kun: "Gu Sheng, I hope you haven't changed your original intention."
Gu Kun waved his hand, sat in the back seat of the car, and signaled to drive: "Of course, I am here to compete head-on with Soros. I believe that the authorities in Hong Kong and the mainland will come up with a 'promise not to devalue the RMB'
Determination and courage can withstand those bastards."
Liang Jinsong's expression was not calm, but his brows were furrowed: "If you have this heart, of course it's the best. I am also a native of Xiangjiang, and I don't want to see Xiangjiang being harvested. However, Soros's tricks this time
, it’s not the same as last year’s match against Thailand and Indonesia.
I'm afraid that even if you count on policy intervention, it may not be effective. For someone as smart as Soros, the strategies he uses will be upgraded every time. It will be difficult to kill him by cracking his old tricks."
Gu Kun actually knew what changes and upgrades Soros had made in history, but Liang Jinsong said it so solemnly that he did not hesitate to humbly accept the advice and listen again: "Be more specific."
Liang Jinsong cleared his throat and lowered his voice: "It's like this. Last year in Thailand and Indonesia, Soros was mainly bearish on the exchange rates of the Thai baht and the Indonesian rupiah. That was actually relatively simple, just to watch everyone throw money at each other. Soros
Rose's own funds were not large, but his leverage ratio was high and he was brave enough. The short position leveraged more funds than the long position, so he won.
But this time, judging from the position building structure that has gradually surfaced recently, he should have used a compound position to build a position, attacking both the foreign exchange market and the stock market in parallel! This situation is much more complicated than last year, and I am afraid that those who still expect to use last year's methods will do so.
Experience shows that those who only increase the amount of funds to win the confrontation will not be able to bear it."
Gu Kun listened very carefully. Although he knew the history, the interpretations of past lives did not come from face-to-face analysis by professionals, but only some information found online.
It now seems that before Soros officially took action against the Hong Kong dollar, many of his operations were quite transparent, at least more transparent than when he took action against the Thai baht.
Obviously, this kind of transparency is a demonstration to frighten the wavering financial power, thereby taking advantage of the panic of those wavering people.
The specific principle of this operation is actually very simple:
First of all, as we all know, when there is a risk of depreciation of a currency, the authorities generally use two tactics to combat the depreciation. One is to directly use a large amount of foreign exchange reserves. The authorities will accept the orders as long as the local currency is exchanged for the U.S. dollar.
Swallow it.
There is no technical content in this kind of operation. It just depends on whether a country's foreign exchange reserves are large enough and thick. But as international hot money and leverage increase to more than 100 billion U.S. dollars, it is often not enough to rely on hard financing alone. There is not that much.
I'll burn the dollars for you.
Therefore, the second measure as an auxiliary measure is to raise interest rates on the local currency.
For example, when the Thai baht was attacked before, Thailand did not have that many dollars to exchange for, so it chose to raise interest rates. From the 10% annual interest rate before the crisis, it was suddenly increased to 12.5%, and finally to 15% when it could no longer hold on.
.
Most people can understand this principle: if the interest rate on Thai baht is 10% higher than that on US dollars, then even if the Thai baht depreciates 10% relative to the US dollar within a year, it is equivalent to no depreciation.
And because most people don’t like the principle of tossing, raising interest rates can generally offset at least two or three times the currency depreciation. In other words, if the interest rate of the Thai baht is 10% higher than that of the US dollar, it may depreciate by 25% a year, and the people will be "
I’m too lazy to go to the bank and don’t want to move” and continue to let my Thai baht deposit lie there.
It's just that this time the Thai baht has dropped by more than half. It's so obvious that even those who don't care about current affairs can't sit still, so the 10% interest difference cannot be sustained.
Now that Soros is going to take action against the Hong Kong dollar, the banking system in Hong Kong will definitely use interest rate increases to combat the outflow of funds caused by depreciation.
But in the financial market, the linkage between various blocks is very strong. The weapon of interest is related to all aspects, not just to foreign exchange.
As we all know, in many countries, interest rate increases and interest rate cuts are important means to stimulate the economy or cool down the economy. Generally, when everyone is encouraged to invest and forced to spend their money, banks will cut interest rates. On the contrary, if investment has been overheated, a bubble will form.
If it is relatively large, banks will raise interest rates to attract money back to bank deposits.
So anyone with a little bit of common sense can see that every time the bank raises interest rates, all investment markets will cool down, housing prices will fall, or at least they will not rise as fast, stock markets, futures, and other various financial speculation markets
, will also slow down when interest rates are raised.
The biggest difference between Soros's attack on Hong Kong and Thailand is that he not only shorted the Hong Kong dollar, but also shorted Hong Kong stocks and bought a large amount of short options on the Hang Seng Index.
The term for this thing is "futures contract", which is the prototype of the thing played by the "flesh-faced dragon Ferrari" in the movie "The King of Kings" (the character played by the director Fatty Wang himself).
At that time, if the Hong Kong dollar really falls, Soros will make a lot of money from his short position in the Hong Kong dollar.
If the banks in Hong Kong want to cooperate with foreign exchange management and use interest rate hikes to curb the outflow of Hong Kong dollars, then as long as interest rates are raised, the overall downward trend of Hong Kong stocks will be regarded as a high probability event by the world, and everyone in the stock market will flee in panic.
By liquidating the investment, Soros can make money in the short futures contract of the Hang Seng Index.
Some laymen may ask: Since this trick is so awesome, why didn't it work half a year ago?
The reason is very simple, because Xiangjiang is the first Southeast Asian financial center attacked by Soros, and only Xiangjiang has such a large stock market.
When he was in Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia, maybe Soros also thought about it, but there is no decent stock market in Thailand at all - it's not that there are no stock exchanges and listed companies there, but even if there are, the number is too small, and the total investment
The scale is also too small. The total market capitalization of the Thai stock market is a drop in the bucket compared to the Thai baht foreign exchange market and cannot provide hedging.
Just like you can't expect that when a vat breaks, you can pick it up with a cup and it won't be able to catch it. Only when the scale of the foreign exchange and stock markets of one local currency is of the same order of magnitude, and both vats are vats, can there be a basis for taking over and hedging each other.
The scale of Hong Kong's stock market is so large that it can fully support the capacity of the entire Hong Kong dollar ecosystem and also support Soros's schemes.
…
Gu Kun listened very carefully and actually received some details that he had never noticed in his previous life.
After listening, he in turn encouraged Liang Jinsong: "So, Soros is actually very rampant now - how his positions were built and how large they were, even a professional observer like you can roughly understand
It shows that he doesn’t have the mentality of ‘wanting to keep it secret at first’ when he was working on the Thai Baht business, which is a good thing.”
Liang Jinsong initially focused on his worries about Soros's strong momentum, but did not notice the contrast between Soros's two operations on the issue of high-profile/low-profile.
After hearing Gu Kun's reminder, he came back to his senses: "Are you saying that Soros deliberately kept the secret secret just to increase panic? It was a kind of active propaganda?"
Gu Kun: "Of course, you have to think about it this way: Bank interest rate hikes will cause the stock market to fall. Is this common sense or a natural phenomenon?"
Liang Jinsong was stunned: "What's the difference? You're not playing a definition word game, are you?"
Gu Kun: "Of course it's not a word game by definition. Common sense is 'everyone knows how something will turn out, and then it actually turns out that way'."
And the natural phenomenon is ‘no matter whether everyone knows that things will be like this or not, it will be like this’. In behavioral terms, the former belongs to the second-level chaotic system, and the latter belongs to the first-level chaotic system.”
Liang Jinsong reacted quickly: "Of course it is common sense that 'the stock market will fall when interest rates are raised'. The interest itself is not much. The key is that the chain of suspicion is terrible. People will think that 'raising interest rates will definitely affect the stock market. Even if I am rational,
I'm unmoved, but I don't know how insufferable most of the timid people in the world are. As long as they can't withstand the intimidation and a large amount of money flees and falls, I will be implicated, so I'll run away too.'
."
The stock market was not collapsed directly by the natural event of raising interest rates, but by people's chain of suspicion.
This is why when Thailand raised the baht interest rate, Thailand's poor stock market was actually not as affected as the current Hong Kong stock market - because Thai people are more Buddhist, they are slow in investing, and they are not as smart and sensitive as the Chinese.
.And the Buddhist type is contagious. As long as you have the expectation that "other leeks are more Buddhist than me, I guess they won't run away from this small fluctuation", you won't panic so easily.
The intensity of the stock and foreign exchange market's reaction to stimulus policies is directly proportional to the general degree of treachery of the people in this region. The more professional the people are, the smaller the stimulus can amplify the greater the fluctuations.
This is why many institutions in later generations have used artificial intelligence to automate high-frequency trading. A slight market fluctuation event can cause an uproar. For example, an oil well in Brent in the North Sea exploded. Maybe global oil futures will fluctuate.
a while.
Because when using human attention to analyze these things, such small disturbance variables have no qualifications or energy to be noticed. However, artificial intelligence combined with big data analysis is used, and all relies on 24-hour machines to automatically trade time
, the energy of the machine is infinite, the machine thinks that this disturbance should theoretically increase the oil price by tens of thousands of points, but when all the machines buy together for this tens of thousands of points, the result will be far from tens of thousands of points.
One of them.
Xiangjiang is more dangerous than Thailand, just because there are too many people in Xiangjiang who are glued to the market and want to run away at the first sign of trouble.
To deal with Soros, we must first realize that the biggest danger is not Soros's own funds, but these losers.
The wallflowers are the ones who like to be pushed down by the crowd. When these wallflowers experience an avalanche of sheep, their funds may be larger than those directly controlled by Soros.