Chapter 94 The enemy judges all imaginary enemies, we only judge this one
After arriving in Xiangjiang, Gu Kun spent a few days researching the beginning and end of Soros' position, and finally found out the enemy's situation.
Because Soros is a short-selling party in both the stock market and the foreign exchange market, it is necessary to open positions in advance. According to semi-public information, the earliest batch of positions were established at the beginning of the year, and by the end of February, they were almost completed
Built.
A little bit of popular science, in the margin trading market, people who generally "settle short and sell short" have to open positions long in advance, because the nature of this operation, translated in human language, is "borrow stocks first/
"Sell them in foreign exchange, and then buy and repay the shares after the redemption period." So if you don't leave enough time for building a position, you may not be able to borrow that many shares on the market.
The "financing long" people, that is, those who "borrow money to buy stocks first, then sell the stocks to pay back the money after the redemption period", do the opposite. When buying and building a position, they can build it faster, but in the end
It will be slower to cash out at a high position and turn into money again. Because it is easy to crash the stock price again if you sell in a hurry, so you need to have enough patience to slowly lure the leeks and takeovers.
Relatively speaking, one is slow in and fast out, and the other is fast in and slow out.
Soros was slow in and out quickly this time, so it took a long time to build a position. When it came time for him to launch a general attack, he could complete it as quickly as an avalanche.
Therefore, the options Soros chooses are mostly of medium and long-term terms. Like last year, they are mainly semi-annual terms - so the positions established in January will basically have to be paid back by the end of June.
Maybe some positions can be closed in advance in May, but generally speaking, it can be done sooner rather than later. When the deadline is reached, all positions will be forced to be closed.
How the Hong Kong dollar and the Hang Seng Index will trend in the next three months will determine how much money Soros will ultimately be able to make in the two markets, or whether he will lose money.
In addition to the time limit, Gu Kun also used Blackstone Fund and other investment institutions to gain a general understanding of the current position opening price on the market.
The initial price of the Hong Kong dollar at the end of last year was 7.8 to 1 U.S. dollar. At the beginning of this year, the price at the moment before Soros launched his offensive was 7.885.
In terms of Hong Kong stocks, the Hang Seng Index reached more than 13,000 points at the end of last year - the previous highest level was 16,000 points. However, Soros could not build a position based on the highest level, so he "brokered securities"
"The average cost of financing is 13,000 to 14,000 points.
To put it bluntly, as long as the Hong Kong dollar against the U.S. dollar is lower than 7.9 Hong Kong dollars to 1 U.S. dollar when Soros' large positions must be delivered at the end of June, Soros will be able to make money from options in the foreign exchange market.
In the same way, at the same moment, if the Hang Seng Index is between 13,000 and 14,000 points, Soros' futures contracts on the stock market will basically make no profit or loss.
If it is lower than 13,000 points, he can make a lot of money in the futures contract. The specific amount of profit is equal to the leverage multiplied by the percentage of the index being lower than 13,000 points (taking 13,000 points as 100%
).
If it is higher than 14,000 points, then Soros must have suffered a huge loss. The proportional algorithm is similar to the previous one.
…
Monday, March 9th.
After all the preparations were completed, it was finally time to make the decision.
Liang Jinsong provided him with all relevant information:
"The main short and long positions in the current market have basically been investigated clearly. The current exchange rate is 7 yuan 9 cents and 8 cents. The Administration of Foreign Exchange is still using daily liquidity to maintain exchange, but it is estimated that there is a high probability that it will happen within this week.
It fell below 8 yuan.
As for the interest rate hike, the effect of the first interest rate hike this year has almost been released, and it is expected that there will be a second interest rate hike in the near future. The current Hang Seng Index is 10,600 points, which is higher than our estimated Soros position opening price.
, it has dropped by nearly 3,000 points. Are you sure you want to enter the market now?
The current total market capitalization of Hang Seng is more than HK$3.5 trillion, and there are more than 200,000 semi-annual short index futures on the market. However, in previous years, the total number of short index futures never exceeded 50,000."
What Gu Kun wants to do is long, so it is much more convenient for him to open a position than Soros, and he does not need to make a lot of time in advance.
Especially when there are already big short sellers entering the market, Gu Kun just needs to deal with them directly.
It's similar to "Gu Kun first bought all the large-cap stocks that were currently depressed, and when Soros wanted to borrow shares to sell short in June, Gu Kun sold the large-cap stocks he was buying now to Soros to take over."
As long as Gu Kun ensures that the stock price on the day Soros forced the liquidation was higher than the stock price when Gu Kun opened his current position, then Gu Kun will make a profit.
This is equivalent to Soros having to stay on the market for five or six months, but Gu Kun can only stay for three months.
When the entry time of the two is inconsistent, it is not simply "If Soros makes a profit, Gu Kun will definitely lose", nor is it "If Gu Kun makes a profit, Soros will definitely lose", because the difference between the two
The intervals are all different.
In other words, for example, when Soros first started shorting the stock market, the price was 13,000 points. No matter how it fluctuated in the middle, as long as the price was lower than 13,000 points when he was forced to liquidate his position in June, Soros would make a profit.
But in this six-month period, the lowest point may be only 10,000 points, or even 8,000 points. If Gu Kun opens a position in the middle, then as long as the price is higher than 10,000 points when Gu Kun finally sells, Gu Kun will also be
Earned.
In this way, assuming that the final forced liquidation in June was 11,500 points, it can be said that in the field of futures contract trading, Gu Kun and Soros each earned 1,500 points.
Because Gu Kun "is sure that it will be higher than b when the time comes", and Soros is "sure that it will be lower than a when the time comes." When a is higher than b, as long as it stays between a and a in the end, it is actually
Everyone made money.
The losers may have been the bulls who entered the market earlier and at a higher level than Gu Kun.
After all, the Hong Kong stock market is a melting pot, with trillions of funds playing in it, and Gu Kun and Soros are just one of the players.
In fact, in the past history, after the Hong Kong dollar exchanges, there were several interpretations as to who gained and who lost. Whether Soros would spit back more than half of his small profits or return completely defeated.
Some people think that the Hong Kong authorities have succeeded in protecting the market, successfully repelling international hot money and winning a big victory. Some people think that international hot money just made easy money away, and in the end they are left with a hard nut that they are unwilling to chew on.
The main reason for this difference is that there is a large gap between the starting point where the Hong Kong authorities later protected the market and the point where Soros initially opened a position.
Some people think that the average price for Soros to open a position is 12,000 points, while the starting point for Hong Kong stock market protection is 7,000 or 8,000 points, with a gap of 4,000 points in the middle. Then the closing price at the end of the battle is 10,000 points, which is equivalent to
The defenders succeeded in raising the price by two to three thousand points, but Soros also saw that the situation was not good and immediately ran away with the more than one thousand points he had earned.
(The reason why historical review cannot accurately determine whether Soros lost money or not is because "the average price when Soros completed opening a position" is a trade secret, and it still cannot be verified after many years. All parties are speculating. But in fact, it cannot be
The highest position is short, it depends on how far the average point of his short position is from the highest position)
Gu Kun does not know what the average price of Soros is in this life. History has been changed. Gu Kun only knows that the principle remains unchanged.
He obviously disdains the simplicity of "just making a little cognitive difference with Soros", but he will not foolishly be a bullish person from a high position.
He wants to do big things, but he also wants to maximize his own interests. There is no contradiction between the two.
For example, he can start to be bullish from more than 8,000 points, but he will never wait for more than 10,000 points. He will be satisfied when he makes money.
He will continue to pursue the bad guys, and especially encourage other forces to pursue the bad guys together. It is best to raise the Hang Seng Index to more than 14,000 points to ensure that Soros will suffer huge losses.
After understanding all these data, Gu Kun knew how to give the order:
"We are not in a rush to build a position in the stock market at the moment. We will first buy Hong Kong dollars with U.S. dollars in the foreign exchange market. According to the principle of the foreign exchange market, especially recently, if the Hong Kong dollar falls below the 8 yuan mark against the U.S. dollar,
Buy a little tentatively to see which way the wind is blowing.
Generally speaking, in order to destroy the other party's confidence, when the short seller breaks through the 8-dollar mark, he will definitely increase the price instantly, trying to rush over in one go, and at the same time crush the determination of the authorities to protect this point. If our buying action is then
, the mysterious buying orders that were mistaken for the authorities' protection of the market have stimulated the fighting spirit of short sellers in the foreign exchange market. Then we should wait for a new wave of interest rate hikes and other protective measures to appear in the future, and then resolutely protect the market.
However, if we bring the exchange rate from eight yuan back to within eight yuan, and the short sellers do not smash the confidence of the foreign exchange market, then I think the other party's focus will shift from the foreign exchange market to the stock market. We can confirm whether the stock market continues to
If the price falls, you can decide whether to buy more Hong Kong dollars."
Liang Jinsong thought about Gu Kun's arrangement and his eyes lit up slightly: "Are you saying that you think this can be used as a criterion for judging whether the other party's chips are more important in the foreign exchange market or the stock market?"
This is what Gu Kun meant.
Soros's ammunition is limited, and Hong Kong dollars must be used to buy Hong Kong stocks, and Hong Kong dollars must be used to finance Hong Kong stocks.
He frantically uses US dollars to borrow Hong Kong dollars, then sells Hong Kong dollars to buy US dollars, while also using Hong Kong dollars to lend securities, so there is a priority.
Gu Kun wanted to find out at what point in time Soros transferred his main force from the foreign exchange market to the stock market, and at what point in time did he switch between feint and main attack - in fact, there is no definite difference between feint and main attack. It depends on
Which side is more profitable and which side is more weak and incompetent.
If in this life, the foreign exchange market is not as determined to protect the market as the stock market, maybe Soros will just use the foreign exchange market as the main force to fake it. These are all inconclusive.
This is a very straightforward picking-and-picking game.
If Gu Kun wants to fight with his opponent, he must first not only test out which of the two persimmons, the foreign exchange market and the stock market, is weaker, but also test out which of the two persimmons is softer in Soros's heart.
The objective and actual softness and hardness are not the most important at this time, but the subjective judgment of the softness and hardness in your enemy's mind is more important.
The specific benchmark is to see whether Soros was more determined when the Hong Kong dollar fell below 8 yuan, or whether he was more determined when the Hang Seng Index fell below the 10,000-point mark.