Chapter 96 The end of the battle is just the beginning of the war
Facing the current situation, Liang Jinsong was really confused for a while.
However, he still forced himself to calm down, and after thinking for a while, he bit the bullet and gave the big customer an explanation:
"Could it be that he feels that the SAFE's protection of the market is not 'sincere' enough? He wants to force a benchmark model of foreign exchange protection that he would rather see? That's why he spends so much money on the foreign exchange market and works hard for a while."
"What do you mean?" Gu Kun was not a professional after all, and his response was not fast enough.
Liang Jinsong: "I mean, if you insist that Soros wants Hui Fu, the stock owner, then I will put myself in your perspective and think that this is what he thinks:
He also knows that the amount of his funds is not enough to support the continued depressing of the Hong Kong dollar under the strong protection of foreign exchange authorities. It is not that he should not give in under the attack of protecting the market, but that he should not give in in this form.
He will give in under the protection of the market. He will not give in under the sole protection of "only spending money to protect the market". He wants the Foreign Exchange Administration and the banks to show greater 'sincerity'——
Of course, all this is based on the premise that you have identified him as ‘Shareholder Hui Fu’. From my personal point of view, I am not so firm with your premise.”
Gu Kun touched his chin and smiled proudly: "Thank you, you are very professional. You can calmly deduce based on the customer's major premise even if you don't agree with it, which shows that your empathy is extraordinary."
Liang Jinsong's words were difficult to pronounce, but Gu Kun had already understood them.
As mentioned before, there are two main ways to protect the foreign exchange market.
One is to accept without limit when encountering a run, promising that I will sell as much as you come to buy. Today's transaction was like this. The Hong Kong foreign exchange management department used a large amount of US dollar foreign exchange reserves to sell US dollars forcefully in exchange for Hong Kong dollars.
Ross forced back.
The second way to protect the market is to announce another interest rate hike, or at least a more covert disguised interest rate hike.
This is the same as preventing a bank run. When a bank is run, it will either open it up to people to withdraw money, or it will announce an interest rate increase to make people feel that it is more profitable to save for a longer period of time, and they will be reluctant to withdraw money.
Both methods have their own advantages and disadvantages. The advantage of the former is that it will not affect other markets and fight local battles, but it will consume a huge amount of capital reserves. The advantage of the latter is that it costs less, but raising interest rates will
This has led to a lack of other investments and the return of funds, causing a certain downturn in the stock, bond and property markets.
Today, the Administration of Foreign Exchange's method of protecting the market is still the first move, which is to open it up for you to redeem.
Soros may have acted so tough because he wanted to convey a message:
I hope you use the second move to protect the market, or at least a combination of the first and second moves to protect the market.
If you only use the first move, Soros will use the courage to fight for his life and smash it, sending a message: Maybe you can protect me, and I won’t make any money, but if I can’t make money, I will still let you die.
The skin caused Xiangjiang's foreign exchange reserves to plummet!
The scale of a region's foreign exchange reserves is very important. In addition, if Soros really goes all out, Xiangjiang's local foreign exchange reserves alone may not be enough to open up the exchange, and he may have to borrow the mainland's foreign exchange reserves.
In this case, if the pressure is high, it may indeed force the management department to test and see if combining it with the second move will calm the attacker's will to fight to the death.
Gu Kun felt that he basically had a pretty good guess.
Let’s look at the results the next day.
…
Sure enough, the struggle for funds to protect the market continued the next day. The Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Administration provided another billions of dollars in funds and opened the door for people to exchange.
However, international short sellers are still fierce, and the Hong Kong dollar selling orders equivalent to tens of billions of dollars are falling crazily.
In the morning, 8 yuan and 4 were lost. There was a saw in the middle, and near the time of getting off work in the afternoon, even 8 yuan and 5 were lost.
This is serious. Within two days, two big integer barriers, 8 yuan and 8 yuan 5, were broken, which dealt a huge blow to the confidence of small businesses.
The money Gu Kun had invested to test the waters suddenly caused a temporary loss of more than 50 million U.S. dollars. Adding yesterday's loss, it was equivalent to a cumulative loss of more than 80 million U.S. dollars.
Fortunately, these are just accounts and not real cuts.
Once the snowball starts rolling, not to mention players in the foreign exchange market, even ordinary citizens who do not usually speculate in foreign exchange will take Hong Kong dollars in cash and go to various exchange offices to rush for U.S. dollars.
Once more than 100,000 citizens line up on the street, the social effect will be fierce. And if the exchange rate management department wants to use more foreign exchange reserves to protect the market, the approval procedures and response speed will definitely be inferior to those of private international short sellers.
After all, it involves the use of tens of billions of dollars in foreign exchange reserves. For such a big thing, how many public servants dare to sign? What should I do if the decision is wrong? During meetings and discussions, how can any speculator who just gambles alone react quickly?
"No way, how about an emergency announcement of a disguised interest rate hike? Yesterday I consulted President Liang of Blackstone Fund, and he said that international hot money is likely to use a desperate attack to express its determination to force us to raise interest rates. As long as they force
If the interest rate increase is successful, they may not continue to fight us to death."
A think tank in a certain management department said this to his boss.
The boss is still hesitating: "What about the stock market, bond market, and property market? The residents of this city are as smart as ghosts. They react too quickly and will run away at the slightest sign of trouble. The stock market is already in the doldrums, and this interest rate hike will
The Hang Seng Index will definitely fall below the 10,000-point mark."
"Now I don't care about so much. After all, the money in the stock market is not the country's and the government's money. In the past few years, those small institutions and institutions were too greedy to speculate on the bubble. Let them spend some money! The most important thing is to keep their jobs!"
This is true. After weighing it internally, the management department decided to continue to spend money to protect the market, while at the same time raising interest rates in a symbolic and half-hidden way, to see if that gesture could get international speculators to stop fighting for their lives.
…
The decision to raise interest rates in disguise was made before get off work on March 11, and then an emergency notice was issued. The effective date was to start the increase the next day.
An unsettling night passed in a state of anxiety, especially since cash foreign exchange offices cannot be open 24 hours a day, so ordinary citizens who waited in line until closing time had no choice but to go back and wait and see.
The next day, the morning of March 12th, everything seemed to have changed.
In the middle of the night before, international hot money had slightly weakened its offensive, allowing the foreign exchange management department's buying orders to recover the 8.5 yuan mark.
Then the two sides were in a stalemate at more than 8 yuan and 4 cents all night until 9 a.m. on the 12th, when the Hong Kong Stock Exchange opened and the Hang Seng Index began to fluctuate.
It seemed to confirm that the Hong Kong dollar deposit interest rates of major banks in Hong Kong had really changed. As a result, the stock market fell from 10,300 points to 9,900 points, falling below the round number mark of 10,000 points. Then, there was sudden large-scale run pressure on the foreign exchange market.
It became smaller.
However, the retail stores on the market are slow after all. Many people do not have rich association skills, and they are still exchanging Hong Kong dollars in cash for US dollars. Even elderly people are queuing up on the street.
This is because the decrease in bulk acceptance pressure cannot be directly transmitted to the results, and there is also a lag of inertia.
Many laymen only look at the total volume and price of trading volume, but do not look at the structure and components of trading volume.
Professional people will know at this time that "on the surface, the international giants have retreated and adjusted, and may have given in. The exchange rate is still falling, which is caused by ordinary citizens getting together."
In other words, Soros has already withdrawn, but the gangsters who were frightened by Soros's previous resolute attitude have not yet withdrawn. The temporary continued decline was amplified by this ant's panic and recklessness.
Gu Kun recognized the situation and immediately ordered: "Hurry up and cover your position! Soros has indeed reached a tacit understanding of spheres of influence with the foreign exchange management. As long as he is willing to raise interest rates, he will not fight in the foreign exchange market! Give me 2 billion US dollars of capital
Jin Quan gets it going, 15 times leverage! We won’t stop until the Hong Kong dollar is pushed back to the 8 yuan mark!”
The previous 500 million double leverage was just a way to explore. After exploring, I lost 80 million to get in.
But now is when it gets real.
When playing with the Thai baht, Gu Kun only dared to increase the leverage by 5 times at most. This was because the Thai baht fluctuated so much that it could fall by nearly 20% in a day. Therefore, 5 times the leverage could basically guarantee the prevention of liquidation.
The Hong Kong dollar is more mature than the Thai baht. Coupled with the existence of the Hong Kong dollar-denominated stock market value, the Hong Kong dollar's capacity is much larger than the Thai baht. Even if it falls from 7.9 yuan to 8.5 yuan, it will only fall by about 7%, so unless it falls like this again
Only if it is deep can it be possible to liquidate the position with a leverage of 15 times. Gu Kun felt that this margin was enough.
However, Liang Jinsong advised from a professional perspective:
"Be more stable, right? What if Soros is tempting the enemy? The volume of large sales is disguised as more small orders, but the total volume does not decrease. This can completely create an illusion. Soros disguised it when the Thai baht was trading.
There are more than 600 main accounts and more zombie accounts are scattered to attack. We have to guard against them.
I think 10 times leverage is the most for the time being. Otherwise, let’s wait until the total volume of selling orders starts to shrink, and then add 20 times to pursue the victory, and we will do it in stages.”
Gu Kun pulled a handful of hair: "What you said makes sense. It's not impossible to be cautious. The total selling volume did not fall, only the percentage of large traders' transactions fell. This could be faked... Who knows how Xiangjiang could exist?
With so many small businesses, are all the people here engaged in finance? The number of floor trading accounts is almost close to 1 million! This city has a population of just over 6 million!"
Liang Jinsong followed the steady approach and arranged the transaction.
After Gu Kun's big buy order appeared, it merged with the foreign exchange management department's buy order, and it broke through 8.3 yuan again in just half an hour, and then it was time for lunch break.
People queuing up on the street to exchange banknotes noticed the exchange rate fluctuations, and the queuing phenomenon finally dissipated. In the field of electronic trading, small and scattered selling orders also began to decrease, and the total transaction volume waiting to be sold also began to shrink.
Gu Kun then asked Liang Jinsong to increase the leverage, beat the dog in the water, and increase the leverage from 10 times to 20 times.
Unfortunately, by the time he placed the order with added leverage, the transaction price was already around 8.2 yuan.
Most of his previous orders were opened between 8.5 yuan and 8.3 yuan, and the average price was less than 8.4 yuan.
This means that Gu Kunbi was 20 times more ruthless than the beginning and made 20 cents less.
However, there is no way to do this. No one can think of whether the operation of the large increaser and decreaser in the morning was Soros's smoke bomb. For the sake of safety, it is necessary to make less money.
That night, the Hong Kong dollar had risen to 8 yuan, and Gu Kun's purchase orders were still gradually being completed.
After two days of steady trading, it finally broke through the 7.8 mark and reached 7.76. It was even 0.12 higher than before the Hong Kong dollar crisis, which was considered to stabilize people's hearts.
It was only at this time that Gu Kun could relax and settle the accounts slowly:
“My capital of US$2 billion was finally leveraged 20 times, which is equivalent to US$40 billion in market capital.
Initially, the pathfinding money of 1 billion was used to open positions at an average of 8.13. When it first fell to 8.5, the cumulative loss was 4.5%. But now it has risen back to 7.76, all the losses have been recovered, and a profit of 4.6% has been made.
That's $46 million.
The second batch was opened at an average price of 8.38, with a post-leverage capital of 19 billion, a profit ratio of 7.4%, and a pre-tax income of 1.406 billion U.S. dollars, which can be regarded as the most profitable wave for us.
The third batch of positions were opened around the 8.2 mark. The average price of the final position was higher than that of the first batch. It was already 8.08. Basically, they only made money to chase the victory, with a yield of only 3.96% and 20 billion.
Scale and profit were US$79.2 billion.
The three batches of buying orders were added up, excluding handling fees and commissions, and the profit was US$2.245 billion."
I have dared to gamble and increase leverage, but in the foreign exchange market, after all, I just more than doubled my capital. It is not the kind of sudden wealth that laymen imagine.
If you include the operating commissions of the Blackstone Fund, as well as various handling fees and leverage fees, it will be just a little more than double.
In the next stage, Gu Kun will only have 4 billion US dollars on hand.
Of course, it cannot be ruled out that there will still be some small fluctuations in the foreign exchange market.
On the other hand, Liang Jinsong seemed not as optimistic as Gu Kun. He had to remind Gu Kun:
"Boss, you think too simply. You haven't fully earned the money yet - you bought so many Hong Kong dollars and turned all your liquid assets into Hong Kong dollars.
Unless you are willing to hold Hong Kong dollars in the future, when so many Hong Kong dollars are sold, the Hong Kong dollar will still fall sharply, and you will not be able to escape at the price of 7.76 yuan."
Money is not that easy to earn, and Gu Kun is only making money on paper now. Unless he is willing to use Hong Kong dollars in the future, take Hong Kong dollars, and always have Hong Kong dollars in his hands, otherwise he will not be completely safe.
However, Liang Jinsong obviously still underestimated Gu Kun.
Gu Kun didn't take it seriously: "It's okay. I have so many Hong Kong dollars and I just want to speculate in Hong Kong stocks. I think it's not my turn to worry about the trouble of holding too many Hong Kong dollars. I'd better think about how to use this money in the future.
After buying Hong Kong stocks with money, it might be a problem of holding too many shares. Li Jiacheng also has hundreds of billions of Hong Kong dollars in hand, so he is not worried."
The retreat in the foreign exchange market is just the achievement of Soros' first stage goal. Forcing the authorities to use a specific model of disguised interest rate hikes to protect foreign exchange and end the main war in the foreign exchange market only means that the onslaught in the stock market has just begun.
——
(Speed up a little, this update is 4,000 words long. End the exchange rate war.)