Because history has changed, and how much Soros earned and lost in the original history has always been hidden in the fog.
Therefore, the difficulty for Gu Kun to snipe Soros is obviously much more difficult than those in a first-level chaotic world that directly memorizes answers and records historical conclusions.
Gu Kun's only grasping point is two points: first, he at least fully understands the principles of Soros's actions and knows how this model works.
This is already very rare, because today, more than 99.9% of investors in the Hong Kong dollar foreign exchange market and Hong Kong stock market do not know how this model works.
Those people have not yet linked the foreign exchange market and the stock market, and do not know how to judge changes in the main direction of short selling through certain key nodes hidden behind a large amount of superficial data.
Don’t think that just because Liang Jinsong understood it under Gu Kun’s instructions, it meant that this matter was easy - Liang Jinsong was not an ordinary person. After all, he had been the president of the Asia Pacific region of Blackstone Fund for many years and was a very good person in the industry.
exists.
Moreover, in the original history, in the absence of Gu Kun, Liang Jinsong managed the funds and performed very well in helping to protect the market, which is why he later had the qualifications to take charge of the Financial Secretary.
Therefore, although Gu Kun's first starting point was not enough to kill Soros, it has greatly improved his competitiveness, allowing him to surpass 99.9% of other investors.
As for the second starting point, Gu Kun is secretly doing it and Soros is doing it openly: Gu Kun pretended to be trapped by the new economic stimulus investment in Malaysia, and a large amount of liquidity was frozen, and he even did not hesitate to end Zhu Jingye’s pawn.
, disseminating false information in a desperate manner is to create enough smoke bombs so that Soros will not include Gu Kun when calculating the balance of long and short power.
This trick cannot be said to be 100% effective, but at least it works to a great extent. Soros's judgment on Gu Kun was delayed. Perhaps it was only one or two months before closing the position that Soros could truly understand Gu Kun's actions.
In this way, Gu Kun saves a lot of energy in judging other funds in the market.
This is like a game of chicken. Gu Kun's marksmanship is actually not very good, and his clairvoyance is not fully used - his "clairvoyance" is the historical record of his previous life. And because other small figures are of too low importance, they do not deserve to be
When it is written into the history books, only a big shot like Soros can be written into it.
This is just like Gu Kun's see-through device is incomplete. He can only see where Soros is, but he doesn't know where the other 98 weak enemies are.
However, Soros relied on his true skills and powerful calculations to figure out where the other 98 people were, except for Gu Kun, who was hiding in the dark and had lost the smoke bomb.
Gu Kun's safest way is to stop trying so hard to figure out where the other 98 people are. He just needs to see through to Soros, avoid Soros's sight and move, wait for Soros to find the other 98 people, and move the other 98 people.
Get rid of it.
When there were only two people left, Gu Kun killed the chicken for the last time.
And this is not an ordinary game of chicken, but a game of chicken that "does not show how many people are left alive". It is entirely possible that Soros thought he was done with it when he killed 98 people.
As for the determination of the authorities to protect the market and the strength of the national team to protect the market, there is no need to worry about this. They have not changed in both time and space. These forces have absolute combat effectiveness and can be inappropriately compared to poisonous circles and bombing zones.
In fact, Soros himself is aware of the determination of the Hong Kong authorities to protect the Hong Kong dollar in the face of depreciation. He knows that the authorities want to protect the currency and can fully protect it. This kind of protective behavior is also normal and reasonable.
The only thing Soros didn't expect was that in history, the Hong Kong foreign exchange management department would unite some national teams to protect the stock market - as long as they took action to protect it, they would definitely be able to protect it.
The reason why Soros feels that he will not take action to protect is because once there is policy and market support in the stock market, it will affect the evaluation of an economy's financial freedom in the world, and will make foreigners think that your transactions here are not absolutely free, and they will play with you in the future.
There will be fewer people. Those economies that previously advertised "absolute free trade" have always followed international practice of "protecting foreign exchange but not stock."
Therefore, from this perspective, comparing the money of the national team and the foreign exchange bureau to drug circles and bombing zones is definitely not looking down upon them.
Any international private investor knows that once this force takes action, it cannot be resisted. The only uncertainty is that you don’t know whether it will take action.
There is no warning in this bombing zone, and there is no countdown to shrinking of this poisonous circle. You don’t even know whether it will shrink.
…
With such local advantages and selective perspective support, Gu Kun's pace of entering the market appears to be very steady.
According to the rhythm node discussed with Gu Kun, Liang Jinsong only began to consider a tentative entry on March 10, when the Hong Kong dollar had just fallen below the critical point of 8 yuan against the US dollar.
"Boss! The spot price broke through the 8 yuan mark at 4:30 in the morning! By about 9 o'clock in the morning, it had suddenly dropped to 8 yuan and 17 cents! There should be a huge amount of selling taking advantage of the regulatory reaction.
It was smashed down due to delay!"
This was the first news Gu Kun received on the morning of March 10th.
Gu Kun's reaction was very quick, but also very calm: "Don't rush, wait and see for a few hours, let the panic of sensitive small businesses and the regulatory response take action, and then we will take action."
Let the bullet fly for a while.
The biggest difference between foreign exchange market trading and the stock market is that there is no closing in the foreign exchange market, while there is a closing in the stock market.
To be precise, it is not that every trading market does not take a break, but because foreign exchange is speculated all over the world, so the trading hours of each market can cover 24 hours a day and 7 days a week. Anyway, it exists between countries. There is a time difference. I am sleeping after get off work here in Xiangjiang, but I may have just gone to work or worked for a long time in New York or London.
However, when it comes to a relatively small currency such as the Hong Kong dollar, there are obvious peaks and valleys during the trading period. During the hours when the local foreign exchange exchange in Hong Kong is open, the trading volume of the Hong Kong dollar is definitely relatively large. The Hong Kong foreign exchange exchange is closed.
time, the trading volume will be small.
After all, the dealers have to sleep, so generally large-scale raids like to open the market in New York, and launch it in Xiangjiang when they are sleeping. They can use a few hours to advance forward.
At this time, Gu Kun knew that he must let those who were not firm among the people vent their anger first.
Sure enough, around 10 o'clock in the morning, some Xiangjiang locals who slept late and did not pay attention to the early morning market began to panic.
When these traders saw that it had broken through 8 yuan overnight, and even 8 yuan 2 might be lost, they thought it was because "Soros's offensive was too fierce, and the Foreign Exchange Administration has given up on protecting foreign exchange."
Rumors are flying in the streets and alleys, throughout the core financial district of Xiangjiang.
Make phone calls, ask for a short break of a few hours at work, or pretend to go to some tea restaurants to have morning tea and chat with so-called "insiders".
Then, tens of thousands of financiers, who thought they were the most cunning and quick-responsive, became Soros's accomplices and started selling Hong Kong dollars to buy U.S. dollars in a bank run.
After some panic, he really helped Soros break through the 8 yuan and 2 mark.
In the exchange rate market, from 7 yuan 9 cents to 8 yuan 2 in one morning, this is already a big trend. The equivalent percentage is a drop of nearly 3%, and it also has the symbolic additional panic effect of breaking through the round number mark.
.
Just imagine, in 2005, the RMB had been holding back for so many years and announced an appreciation against the US dollar. After the news came out, it only rose by 2%. The market price here was easily 3% in a calendar day, which was enough to panic.
After all, the Hong Kong dollar has a relatively complete system. Unlike the Thai baht, which has a flawed exchange rate design, we cannot compare it with the Thai baht's 10% drop in one day.
Around lunch time, the foreign exchange management department finally started to take action. Gu Kun saw that the level of 8 yuan 2 was regained, and it returned to 8 yuan 16 cents at 2 o'clock in the afternoon.
"The determination to protect the market has been revealed, shall we follow suit this time?" Liang Jinsong professionally analyzed it for the big clients.
In the reception room, there is a large market monitoring screen next to it.
He touched his beard and said: "Try it with a hand, but don't increase the leverage. First try it with a principal of 500 million US dollars."
Liang Jinsong thought for a while: "A 500 million order won't make a splash at all. Let's add a little leverage. The principal is still 500 million. The remaining 1.5 billion won't move. It will be easier to operate."
Gu Kun nodded. Anyway, the rise or fall won't be too big, so it doesn't matter.
Liang Jinsong used 500 million principal to double the leverage and first bought 8.16 billion Hong Kong dollars.
Billions of buy orders in a single day are quite impressive. Gu Kun's move directly brought the purchase price back to 8 yuan 12 to 1 US dollar.
This also gave Gu Kun a clearer understanding of the trading volume required to protect the market.
"According to this algorithm, if you invest 5 billion US dollars to buy Hong Kong dollars, you can regain the 8 yuan mark? The demand is not big. We are taking action, and people from the Administration of Foreign Exchange should also take action, maybe soon." Gu Kun judged.
.
Liang Jinsong: "Do you want to follow us again? We actually only bought 8.13 billion just now, because our buying itself pushed up the exchange rate, so not all the money was traded at the entry point."
Gu Kun thought for a while: "Okay, but not too often. Let's take a look when most people are about to go to get off work, or even at night. Let's see how determined Soros is."
Throughout the afternoon, the market was very stable. 8 yuan and 1 was recovered and broke through to 8 yuan and a few cents. This kind of market price dropped by 3% and then rose back by 2% in one day. It is really as exciting as a roller coaster in the foreign exchange market.
Unfortunately, when the price was approaching the 8 yuan mark, the resistance suddenly increased.
"Soros' people suddenly increased the trading volume! A big selling order of at least 80 billion Hong Kong dollars! The principal of 10 billion US dollars after leverage! Not only did it not recover 8 yuan, it also broke through 8 yuan 2 and 8 yuan 3 again!
"
After seeing this, Gu Kun's face became slightly more solemn.
Just one afternoon, he made about 40 million US dollars.
However, with this one move at dinner, he lost his 40 million U.S. dollars and lost another 30 million U.S. dollars.
It's 70 million US dollars once it's in and out. Fortunately, it hasn't been cut off yet. It's just kept in the city. The explorers who are trying to attract people don't feel bad about it. They are just going to go to the mine.
"What do you think Soros is thinking? Is it necessary for him to spend so much money in the foreign exchange market? This is different from the stock owner Hui Fu we judged before." Gu Kun couldn't help but ask Liang Jinsong, a professional.