Chapter 98 Find an escape route before starting the war
On the first day Gu Kun entered the Hong Kong stock market, the market continued to fall, but Gu Kun did not suffer any losses.
Because the stock market is different from the foreign exchange market, there is only one product you can speculate on in the foreign exchange market, and that is the Hong Kong dollar.
There are thousands of stocks in the Hong Kong stock market. What Soros bought was a fixed investment futures contract, which is a product that targets the general market index and does not involve individual stocks.
But Gu Kun does not need to buy futures contracts to follow the trend. He can use a more flexible method to choose stocks at the right time and support the market on specific stocks, thereby driving the overall Hang Seng Index to compete with Soros.
Therefore, in the initial stage of the war, the situation of "Soros continued to expand his victory, and Gu Kun did not lose any money" was completely achievable. The only losses were those individual investors who chose stocks differently from Gu Kun.
As soon as the market opened that morning, Gu Kun followed his plan and spent a total of about 2 billion Hong Kong dollars to place a large buy order based on the range of stocks he selected.
The market continued to fall, but the stocks Gu Kun bought stood out and managed to hold up, even rebounding slightly.
"Boss, today's opening price was 7323 points, and now it is 7256 points. The market still fell 67 points this morning, but it has narrowed compared to Friday's 215-point full-day drop/126-point single-day morning drop.
Half of it.
However, the number of individual stocks we selected is relatively small. According to the current accumulation speed, within about two days, we will have completed the accumulation of high liquidity stocks such as Yingke and Telecom, which are easily available on the market. It will not be until the weekend.
, we have to face raising a placard."
During lunch, Liang Jinsong gave Gu Kun a brief summary of the trading results of the first morning.
Gu Kun said nothing, feeling that everything was under control.
The PCCW and Telecom (Heung Kong Telecom) mentioned by Liang Jinsong are relatively well-known communication stocks and emerging Internet concept stocks in the Hang Seng Index. They are also representatives of Gu Kun's first wave of stock selections to support fund-raising.
The reason why he made this choice has something to do with the current market conditions of Hong Kong stocks.
During the previous decline from 12,000 to 3,000 to 7,000 to 7,000 to 8,000, different sectors of the Hong Kong stock market were protected by private funds in completely different proportions.
Some blue-chip stocks, especially blue-chip stocks with the core interests of chaebols, are better taken care of. After all, the four major chaebols all need to use the company's equity for pledge financing. Once the stock price drops too badly, it is easy to increase the proportion of pledged equity and liquidate the position.
The main blue-chip stocks of the Xiangjiang Chaebol are concentrated in the fields of real estate and finance, because these are the most important economic pillars of Xiangjiang.
Of course, in addition to real estate and finance, other transportation fields, especially shipping and ship-related industries, are also big blue chips in Hong Kong stocks.
After the outbreak of the financial crisis in Southeast Asia, international trade was directly affected and the most serious. Therefore, shipping companies were struggling and fell terribly. The Bao family and the Tong family were desperately trying to buy back to resist short selling, but they were still defeated.
The collapse of real estate stocks was mainly due to the fact that after the return of 1997, the authorities' land auction treatment was much better than during the Brittany administration. The annual allowed land supply was four times greater than during the colonial period, and housing prices began to loosen.
, leading to a decline in people's long-term expectations for real estate.
Those big families and big tycoons had about 10,000 in their own funds, and they began to desperately resist Soros. They also consumed the most ammunition against Soros.
Judging from the current situation, before Gu Kun arrived, real estate stocks had fallen by 30%, shipping stocks had fallen by half, and financial stocks had fallen relatively little, just falling by a quarter.
Outside of these three major sectors, there are relatively few other blue-chip stocks, and their impact on the overall market index is relatively low. They were previously in a free-range state.
Although Soros's attack on these areas was not ruthless, because these sectors were inherently unloved and unprotected, they fell by more than half on average. (It's not that the performance of these stocks is poor, it's purely because of the poor performance of these stocks.
No one is protecting you)
After all, Soros came here to short futures contracts, but those who fought against Soros did not go there to be enemies with Soros, they just wanted to protect themselves.
Whether the market index falls or not has nothing to do with investors who do not engage in futures contracts.
This has led to the current situation of "shorts are all bearish, and bulls only focus on the longs."
When Gu Kun entered the market, he felt that there was no need for him to follow the trend of those blue chips that had been protected relatively thoroughly before. It would be better to test the waters by selecting a small number of stocks that could hold up in the scrap battlefield of non-blue chips.
springboard.
Apart from real estate, finance, and shipping, there are not many industries that Xiangjiang can offer now. Gu Kun chose a number of Internet, telecommunications, and media concept stocks after much selection.
The reason why he made this choice was obviously long-term thinking.
He is even leaving a way out for how to retreat after defeating Soros in the future and successfully protecting the market.
As we all know, in this market support, Soros is short and Gu Kun is long. If Gu Kun finally succeeds in killing Soros, it means that on July 1, the Hong Kong stock market will be at a very high position as a whole
The number is at least ten thousand or several thousand points.
So, what should we do if Gu Kun and the protective team invested so much money and no one came to take over the position? Wouldn't that just become "stock speculation and becoming a shareholder"?
This is one of the three most tragic things in the world! Gu Kun must definitely avoid it. (The other two most tragic things are becoming a landlord by speculating in real estate, and becoming a husband by picking up girls)
Fortunately, he has the prophet of a reborn person, so after considering everything, the safest way to dump the blame and seek a takeover is to combine this wave of Hong Kong stock market protection with the future Internet bubble crisis.
The Southeast Asian financial crisis mainly occurred from the second half of 1997 to the beginning of 1998.
Historically, the global Internet craze has actually started to heat up simultaneously - on the other side of the ocean, in Oceania, the rise of Nasdaq in the secondary stock market has started in 1996, and has historically been rising.
By March 2000.
However, areas like Xiangjiang, where finance has become degenerate, are relatively slow to respond to new technologies. In early 1998, local Internet concept stocks were not very popular, and they were indeed not worthy of being popular. They were basically nothing.
To cheat money.
Historically, after the Nasdaq began to fall in March 2000, the Hong Kong stock market was slow to react and held on for a few more months, basically holding on until the second half of 2000 before it began to fall.
As for the global Internet bubble to officially burst, it is known that it would not collapse until after February 2001 - that is, after the replacement of the leader of Oceania was selected and Xiao Busheng successfully took over.
After all, the attitude of entrepreneurs in the Internet circle has always been pro-people and anti-nuclear. How could they give face to Clinton, a leader who is quite prestigious in the technology world?
Even if the Internet bubble is going to collapse, it must hold on tight and not collapse during his term. Even if it is suspended on a ventilator, it will not be officially burped until the war maniac who supplies nuclear weapons comes to power.
When the global bubble officially collapsed, Hong Kong was in decline. Internet concept stocks in the Hong Kong stock market collapsed along with Nasdaq within almost a week.
After sorting out these prescient positive factors, Gu Kun's idea becomes very obvious:
Of course, what he hopes is that after protecting the market in July, he can move as far as possible.
If you really can't get away, then you can finally take a heavy position in the Internet and telecommunications in Hong Kong stocks, link this wave of market prices with the Internet bubble that will follow for a year and a half, and get out when the Internet craze is at its peak.
In other words, the worst-case scenario is that because you are too patriotic and hate Soros too much, you have to be a medium- to long-term shareholder for about a year and a half.
You must leave in the end.
So, among these Internet stocks, why did Gu Kun specifically choose PCCW Digital and Xiangjiang Telecom?
This is because these two stocks are so famous that they were later used as a comparison of the Hong Kong stock Internet bubble, and many people have analyzed it.
Yingke Digital is run by Mr. Li, the second son of Boss Li. He has developed a lot of Internet transformation concepts and claims to have invested in a lot of Internet start-ups. In fact, it is not worth much at all.
(In terms of results, Yingke’s most successful investment should be the investment in Tengyun Technology, which later became Pony. That investment should have made thirty to fifty times, and the investment was less than one million Hong Kong dollars. When the Internet went away in the cold winter
It’s worth more than 26 million. But later everyone knew how much Teng Yun was worth. Mr. Li Ergong thought he was successful when he made the move in the cold winter, and was laughed at by the world as a joke for many years)
However, no matter how much the actual net worth of Yingke was, Gu Kun knew that Li Chaibol was good at making money by hyping up concepts - at the craziest time in the history of this stock in early 2000, the market value actually reached more than HK$580 billion.
You know, the market capitalization of the entire Hong Kong stock market in 1998 was just over HK$3 trillion, and in 2000 it was just close to HK$4 trillion. A single stock in a stock market with a total market capitalization of HK$4 trillion is worth HK$580 billion, which is quite a lot.
15% of the total market.
And even 20 years later in 2018, when Tengyun's stock price was at a high before the travel restrictions were introduced, Tengyun was only worth more than 3 trillion Hong Kong dollars in market value, and at that time the total market value of the entire Hong Kong stock market was already 300,000.
100 million, Tengyun's peak is only equivalent to 10% of the entire Hang Seng Index.
From this we can see how unreasonable Yingke Digital’s enthusiasm during the first Internet bubble was.
But such unreasonableness also gave Gu Kun the confidence to escape.
He knows that it is absolutely impossible for you to withdraw hundreds of billions of funds from such a stock that will be falsely inflated by hundreds of billions of Hong Kong dollars in the future. It will immediately collapse your confidence and reveal your true colors.
However, it is still very easy to withdraw only one or two tens of billions of Hong Kong dollars from the 580 billion crazy market.
This is not a wild guess, but is proven by historical evidence - in history, at the end of 1999, when the Internet was at its craziest, Mr. Li took Yingke Digital's shares, which had only a book value and no actual net assets, to find
HSBC took out a loan and then promised to use the loan to acquire Xiangjiang Telecom, and after the acquisition was completed, it also pledged additional shares of Xiangjiang Telecom to HSBC.
The loan amount requested by Mr. Li was 12 billion US dollars, equivalent to 94 billion Hong Kong dollars. But HSBC really agreed - it can be seen that HSBC more or less felt that even if Yingke Digital entered the financial packaged mortgage market, it was not worth 580 billion.
But around HK$100 billion is definitely worth it.
Even taking into account this 94 billion Hong Kong dollar empty-handed loan, HSBC still has a considerable part of the consideration based on "your father is Li Jiacheng, even if something happens to you, your father will still save you" before HSBC dares to give money. Then call again
If you use a discount and withdraw tens of billions of Hong Kong dollars from it, it should not collapse in advance.
If he gets a few stocks like this, Gu Kun won't have to worry about running away in advance in the future.