"Today's Yingke Digital and Xiangjiang Telecom are really cheap. These Xiangjiang people's ability to predict technology trends is as bad as Shi. They will only play pure finance in this life, and there is no other future. On
The spirit of struggle and innovation is far inferior to that of the people in the Special Administrative Region on the other side of the river."
Looking at the stock prices of several testing stocks that he has now opened a position in, Gu Kun actually feels a little emotional in his heart.
Xiangjiang Telecom, which was actually worth HK$94 billion two years later, is now in the midst of this stock market crash. At this moment, before Gu Kun entered the market, the market value was actually only HK$24 billion!
Only a quarter of what it was two years later.
Although Yingke Digital is also cheap, its current market value is only a few billion Hong Kong dollars, less than 10 billion. But after all, this company has little real information. It is said to have venture capital in some projects in Silicon Valley and start-up Internet companies in the mainland. Gu Kun feels that it is only worth a few dozen
Billion is also appropriate.
(In April 1998, Yingke Digital did not even invest in Tengyun, because Tengyun did not exist yet, and historically it was not established until November.)
Regarding the fact that telecommunications stocks represented by Xiangjiang Telecom were so undervalued, Gu Kun also asked Liang Jinsong, hoping that he would give an answer from a professional perspective.
However, Liang Jinsong's analysis shocked Gu Kun because he didn't see it that way at all.
"Oh, boss, I totally disagree with you. You are saying that Xiangjiang Telecom's market value has been reduced by less than half because of the stock market crash. I admit this - before Soros made trouble, the total market value of Xiangjiang Telecom was about 400.
billion Hong Kong dollars, close to 500.
However, that number can fully reflect Xiangjiang Telecom's future expectations - although its market-to-operating ratio and price-to-book ratio are very good, and its cash flow and profit margin are also very stable. However, Xiangjiang Telecom represents a sunset industry.
It provides traditional mobile communications, telephone services and cable TV signal services. Although it has recently claimed to keep up with the times and operate broadband services like other Internet infrastructure concept companies, they have neither shown enough sincerity nor determination.
The budget plan does not introduce technology from Korean technology companies, and it will definitely be eliminated by new players in this field in the future."
Gu Kun was simply stunned after hearing this.
Then he realized that even Liang Jinsong, a smart mind who ranks among the top dozens in Hong Kong's financial circles, thinks so. This shows how big the overall bias of Hong Kong's elites is on such issues, and how deep the value depression is.
.
Xiangjiang Telecom's position in Xiangjiang is basically equivalent to Huaxia Telecom in Mainland China plus China Mobile, China Unicom, plus a radio and television company. From fixed telephones to mobile phones (Mobile) to cable TV signals, Xiangjiang Telecom is almost the same company.
It has a monopoly and also operates a dial-up Internet business, but it is more conservative in following up on "broadband".
The most rare thing is that this company's business scope is not limited to Xiangjiang. It also has many subsidiaries and networking businesses in Southeast Asia, including mobile phone and GPRS wireless data services, even as far away as Lijiapo.
However, a company with such a good business and such a stable business is not the first local in Xiangjiang to shout the slogan of "introducing Korean broadband technology/cdma/3g wireless broadband business" just because it is a little slow to expand the pie (while Yingke Digital shouted
), and as a result, he was cast aside by the capitalist world who likes to paint pancakes crazily.
(South Korea was the first country in the world to commercialize 2.5g cdma, and later the 3g evdo standard, earlier than Oceania. This must be admitted. Koreans were very willing to spend money in the early days of Internet construction, especially when they were
After the financial crisis in Southeast Asia, South Korea’s entire “infrastructure investment to stimulate the economy” plan was tilted towards the construction of network infrastructure)
In addition, before this, especially before the collapse of the Internet bubble in 2000, the global technology industry has been filled with the belief that "generational song can subvert the industry hegemon of the previous generation." Therefore, the status of the old hegemon as the industry leader will only
If you paint the cake slowly, you will soon be generally bearish.
Who told human beings to simply "summarize" history? At this juncture of 1998, if investors in the field of technology stocks see it this way, you can't say that they are wrong.
Take the game console industry as an example, which can be regarded as the "high-tech predecessor model industry" that technology stock investors refer to today.
Atari was at its peak in the late 1970s, but it exploded in 1983 and was completely wiped out. Soon after, the upstart Nintendo seized the industry dominance. Nintendo dominated FC for a generation, and by the end of the 1980s it was inextricably linked with Sega.
There was no first-mover advantage at all. In the mid-1990s, it was counterattacked by Sony, which was making a game console for the first time.
Therefore, by the end of the 1990s, the capital world had become accustomed to the idea that "consumers of new technology products are cheap and have no historical loyalty to brands. They will only pursue the freshest and most fashionable new brands. Now the powerful companies have reached the point where technology
When iterating, this routine should be eliminated and underestimated.
As for Sony’s plot of “the world’s number one in the PS era, ps2 will still be number one in the world, and ps3 and ps4 will maintain world dominance from generation to generation”, investors have not seen it yet, and it has not been staged yet.
They used the historical experiences of technology companies to deduce the future, but they miscalculated in this generation. Who is to blame?
"Haha, since the investment community in Hong Kong's technology stocks generally likes to look at pictures rather than doing practical things, and gives low prices to good companies that keep a low profile and do practical things, then I just do the opposite and give priority to these stocks in the early stage!"
Originally, Gu Kun didn't dare to be so bold, but professionals like Liang Jinsong were so blinded by this issue that Gu Kun believed in the short-sightedness and blindness of his peers in the late 1990s.
Therefore, the best way to play is to let Gu Kun, a prophet, grasp the general direction of "which categories and characteristics of stocks should be bullish".
Liang Jinsong controls the professional details of indicators such as "Look specifically at each stock's market performance, historical price-earnings ratio, market-to-business ratio, price-to-book ratio..." and other indicators.
The disciple does not have to be inferior to the teacher, and the teacher does not have to be better than the disciple. There is a priority in learning the Tao, and there is a specialization in the art, that's all.
…
The most important thing in the stock market is to make a decision before taking action. When it comes to taking action, there is no suspense.
Gu Kun had a clear general policy and asked Liang Jinsong to take concrete steps. On the first day of testing the market, he purchased shares worth more than 2 billion Hong Kong dollars.
More than 1.3 billion was spent on the shares of Xiangjiang Telecom, and 400 million was bought by Yingke Digital. In addition, seven, seven or eighty-eight telecommunications stocks and Internet stocks were scattered in line with Gu Kun's ideas. The total amount was nearly 1 billion.
At the close of trading, Xiangjiang Telecom's stock price had risen by six or seven percentage points compared with before Gu Kun entered the market, and its total market value had risen from HK$24.3 billion to HK$25.7 billion.
Then, Liang Jinsong encountered the first small operational problem and had to ask Gu Kun for instructions:
"Gu Sheng, do you mind holding up a sign? If a single shareholder or even a person acting in concert in Hong Kong stocks holds more than 5% of the shares, he or she must hold a sign to identify the shareholder. If the shareholding exceeds 15%, you must express your intention to privatize the company.
There is a unified premium.
On the first day today, I gave you a firm hand and only achieved 4.9%. If you don’t mind, I will continue to buy directly tomorrow, otherwise I will find an agent for you to hold it.”
For Liang Jinsong, these small things are very easy. The reason why he asked was because he respected Gu Kun's grand strategy.
After all, Gu Kun has already warmed up the public opinion before, and may openly challenge Soros at any time. Therefore, raising a sign is not necessarily a bad thing. Sometimes it is a deterrent, blowing the horn of attack to encourage other small groups, and stabilize
human heart.
Gu Kun laughed when he heard this. Later generations would see this kind of thing too often.
For example, some female actors in later generations invested in listed film companies. In order to prevent their shareholding ratio from being too high, they had to raise their cards. The most common method was to fake a divorce. Not only did they divorce themselves, but they also divorced their brothers and sisters-in-law, who were "not acting in concert".
Originally, the brother and sister-in-law together held close to 9% of the shares. After the divorce, each of them had 4% or so, which was lower than the 5% threshold. They could continue to be invisible rich without raising a banner.
On Wall Street or the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, there are definitely more speculators who can use this trick than dogs on the road.
So Gu Kun said in a familiar manner: "I don't mind raising the sign, but not now, let's hold it in for a few days. I will give you several accounts of people who are not acting in concert, and you can help me operate it. In addition, we will not
You must buy individual stocks directly, or you can also hold shares indirectly through funds that focus on the Internet stock sector, so there will be no issue of holding a license."
Liang Jinsong nodded: "Of course you can - wasn't I afraid that you would dislike those communication network funds and think that their stock selection vision is not good?"
Gu Kun: "It's true that my vision is not as good as mine, but since we have to protect the market sooner or later, we can't protect it by just buying a few stocks. We just need to distinguish the priorities and the proportion of funds used."
Liang Jinsong: "I understand, it's up to me."
Tuesday was March 31st, so Liang Jinsong followed Gu Kun’s instructions and continued trading. Wednesday was April Fool’s Day, which was not a good time to announce some information, so he continued to trade for the whole day until Thursday, April 2nd, when Gu Kun finally decided to
He raised his placard and officially publicly criticized Soros.
At the same time, false news that "the national team has begun to protect the market" also began to spread in the market.
After operations from the 31st to the 2nd, Liang Jinsong basically invested more than HK$2 billion in several stocks such as Xiangjiang Telecom and the corresponding selected funds every day.
Therefore, when Gu Kun spoke out, he actually already owned 19% of the shares of Xiangjiang Telecom (split into the hands of multiple non-concerted parties), worth about HK$5.5 billion. The total market value of Xiangjiang Telecom also recovered further and exceeded 280
billion Hong Kong dollars.
In addition, Gu Kun also has a 14% stake in Yingke Digital, worth 2 billion, and other miscellaneous communication network stocks totaling 3 billion.
The total funds used are 8 billion Hong Kong dollars, and the current market value of the equity purchased is 10.7 billion, which is more than 20% higher than the average price of Gu Kun's position.
At the same time, because the telecommunications and network stocks rose against the market trend, the decline of the market was somewhat stopped. From the 30th to the 2nd, the average daily drop was only a few dozen points in the four trading days, and it took four days to drop from more than 7,200 points.
Breaking the 7,000-point mark.
When rumors of private market protection spread, the final real-time point of the market was 6988.
At this moment, Gu Kun published a new round of attacks on Soros on some Western blog sites. Some TV stations also appeared on some TV stations with secretly photographed revelations about Gu Kun's remarks, analyzing the life and death stakes involved.