"Is the oil field really discovered? It's impossible, right? In the conscience of heaven and earth, from the beginning, I planned to ask people from Huahai Oil to come over and play those foreign devils with me! Aren't you trying to make me happy?"
A few hours later, in Zhaoming Palace.
When Gu Kun heard for the first time that Tang Jia and Mr. Yang of CNOOC Overseas Company, who had just arrived by plane, jointly reported the good news to him, the way he acted was such a natural and just right kind of genuine surprise.
It was as if he had no idea that there was oil in Lanfang, and everything was a complete accident.
This acting skill can be called a movie king.
There is no way, if he is not good enough for the best actor, he will be very sorry for the Grand Duke Zhu Youdong.
Most of these islands, these lands, these coastal territorial waters, and exclusive economic zone rights were purchased by Gu Kun only last year. If he had known about the oil in advance, Zhu Youdong would not have been so angry that he had a heart attack.
Therefore, even if it was just for Zhu Youdong's face and health, Gu Kun had to maintain a posture of surprise.
Tang Jia did not realize the boss's hypocrisy at all. Instead, she felt that the boss's look of disbelief was exactly the same as her reaction a few hours ago, which was very cordial.
She spent a lot of time explaining the details to Gu Kun thoroughly.
"...Do you believe it now? The data is so detailed and has noses and eyes. It cannot be fake. I can only say that you are the chosen one by destiny. God is helping you to discover the big oil field at this juncture.
!
The current estimated reserves are about 2.2 to 2.5 billion barrels, and the difference will not be too big. However, because it is a shallow sea, the cost of mining from self-inflating wells is higher than that of onshore blowout wells, which is about more than 10 US dollars per barrel and close to 20 US dollars.
If shallow-sea platform technology advances in the future, the cost may be reduced. Therefore, the financial value of these oils may not be as high as imagined."
As Tang Jia gradually reported more professional data, Gu Kun gradually stopped being surprised, became serious, and listened carefully to the detailed quantitative analysis.
The discovery of oil is just a shot in the arm. The exact economic value depends on many factors and cannot be determined just by looking at the reserves.
The biggest problem is mining and transportation costs.
According to the oil mining technology at this stage from the late 1990s until the outbreak of the Iraq War in 2003, the cost of a kowtow machine for mining in strata more than 1,000 meters deep on land ranged from 7 to 10 US dollars per barrel.
The cheapest one is the self-blowout well like Goudahu's. It doesn't even use a kowtow machine. Just dig a hole in the ground and the oil will spurt out by itself. The cost is only 3 yuan a barrel.
(This is also one of the reasons why big oil companies do not have as much oil storage as Venezuela, but they have a greater voice than Venezuela. Except for the old Maracaibo oil field, the mining cost of Venezuela is very low, and the other major oil storage areas Orinoco
River deltas are all shallow-sea oil fields at the mouth of rivers.
In addition, self-effluent wells do not always erupt on their own, because after the formation pressure is released after the eruption, they still have to be pumped out with a machine. For big companies, the formation conditions are particularly favorable, and many wells can continue to erupt for three to five years after being discovered before the pressure is completely released.
)
The cost of mining subsea oil fields is generally higher than that of surface oil fields (except in permafrost areas, the Siberian permafrost zone may be higher than some subsea oil fields), and it generally depends on seawater depth and sea conditions.
The most famous Breton oil field, the Brent oil field in the North Sea, is the more expensive one. Because the North Sea has high winds and strong waves, the Brent oil field production area is far away from the mainland and the water is very deep. It costs upwards of US$25 a barrel.
Easily, there are times when the weather is bad in the 30s. According to today's oil prices, you basically don't make any money. It's just used to ensure oil safety.
Gu Kun's oil field in Lanfang is temporarily estimated to be the cheapest among the seabed oil fields in terms of production costs - because it is very close to the mainland, closer to the land than the oil fields in Brunei next door. Therefore, the sea water is very shallow.
Basically they are tens of meters deep.
In addition, there are no wind and wave weather disasters in the equatorial windless zone, which can further reduce the construction standards of drilling platforms.
Therefore, the assessment given by Huahai Oil is this.
"If we start working now, the cost of a barrel of oil can be controlled to US$18. If we don't rush to extract, we can wait a little while and wait until the technology that is still in early research and development matures before launching, which can further reduce the cost to less than US$15. But in the future
The longest term should not be lower than $12.”
These words were said by Mr. Yang of Huahai Oil Overseas Company to Gu Kun personally, and were confirmed by a chief engineer named Zhu brought by Mr. Yang.
After talking about the technical part, Mr. Yang did not forget to remind him kindly: "However, whether to wait or not, we must also consider the international crude oil market. If the future expectations are unclear, I suggest that we should prepare appropriately.
The current international crude oil price is US$37 per barrel, which is 5 yuan cheaper than the US$42 at the peak of the Gulf War in 1991-92. Oil will not always rise. It mainly depends on the game between the long and short parties. Especially
In the current financial crisis in Southeast Asia, the bulls have strong fighting power because of your confrontation with Soros.
Some peripheral funds from the previous short side were shaken in advance. This wave did not go all-in to follow Soros. Instead, they moved to the Korean market where you and other Chinese financial forces were destined not to protect the market.
After a slight harvest in the Korean market, some people fled to the Lucia market. If there is a financial collapse in Lucia, their tendency to increase crude oil production on a large scale is expected, and this expectation may lead to a large-scale increase in crude oil production in the next at least two years.
Oil prices cannot rise.
As for the next wave of oil bull market factors, I think we have to wait until China joins the WTO and further integrates into the stimulation of international trade within the global industrial chain."
What Mr. Yang said was indeed reasonable. Gu Kun had to admit that he should take a high look at this CEO of a central enterprise.
It can be said that except for the future Nine Demons and the Iraq War, which Mr. Yang cannot analyze, the rest of the "financial crisis spreading to South Korea and Lucia and other Northeast Asian regions" may have medium and long-term consequences, and even China in the future.
This person has already guessed the impact of joining the WTO.
In fact, China's central enterprises have always been full of visionaries. For example, if you are deeply immersed in the telecommunications industry, you will know these people by listening to the internal speeches of some executives of Hua Telecom and Hua Unicom before 2008.
The understanding of the long-term applications of 3g4g and the breakthrough point of mobile Internet may even be better than that of Tengyun people.
But some things are like this, and you can’t do anything about it even if you know it. Who makes you unable to do things in a central enterprise. The business you have identified must still be done by private enterprises that are betting on life and death. The difference is not in vision.
Let’s just say that in this Southeast Asian financial crisis, although the outcome has not yet been completely decided, in fact, history has quietly changed at each stage starting from the time of planning.
Gu Kun's harsh words before, causing Southeast Asian countries to put on a show of solidarity, and even having Buffett look down on Soros, will affect the judgment of the quasi-short forces.
Those who are not determined will not follow Soros until death, and they will also divide and collapse internally.
Some people moved to Northeast Asia in advance, thinking that those places were either used to the dogs of Oceania and could be harvested casually and did not dare to resist their masters, or that they had been weak and bullied for six years since the disintegration of Lucia, and the internal oligarchs were in chaos. Going there
Go harvest.
(Note: Many people born in the 1990s and 2000s may not understand Lucia in the late 1990s, and mistakenly think that Lucia has always been very tough. This is actually a misunderstanding. In the late 1990s, Lucia in the Ye Mouqin era was a mess
, from the beginning to the end, the oligarchs share the dirt and unite with foreign capital to harvest together. Therefore, even if the financial power heading north is not that strong, as long as the Lucia oligarchs are willing to cooperate with them internally and externally to betray the country, it is still possible to succeed. Soros does not go to them
He also dares to take action.
The style of Lucia in the Ye era is completely different from the tough image of the later Beijing era. It can even be said that Lucia's national style transformation has a lot to do with being affected by the financial crisis in the late 1990s and being harvested. This crisis prompted
P Jing took over and then changed his appearance.)
So in fact, the enemies Gu Kun faces now are weaker than those in history, and have already been divided into waves.
However, Gu Kun didn't think much about helping the fate of South Korea. As for Lucia, he also tended to let nature take its course and not change history too much (Gu Kun had no interests in those places anyway)
In this way, "Lucia became tough because of the sniping, re-nationalized the oil industry and increased production", which is a high probability event.
Until 2001, stagflation in oil prices was unavoidable.
After China joined the WTO in 2001, there will be a slight warm-up to start the rising process in 2002. As for the real explosive rise, we still have to wait until the Iraq war breaks out in 2003, and then there will be a super bull market in oil prices that will last for five or six years.
For Gu Kun, the best way is to hold on to the oil first, take advantage of all the legal benefits, survey and make preparations, but not exploit it, and wait for at least three years.
The best thing is to start gradual construction in 2001 and go into full mass production in 2003.
"Mr. Yang is right. I think there is a high probability that after Lucians are affected by the financial war, it may lead to two years of stagflation in oil prices. Moreover, international investment has recently become more enthusiastic about the Internet concept, and global technology investment has
If the media tends to be pragmatic, any real assets will definitely not rise.
In my opinion, although China has worked very hard to negotiate to join the WTO, it still faces multiple rounds of competition for at least two or three years. It would be good to join in 2002. We will reserve technology and deploy capacity based on that time point.
Production. What specific investment is required and how to cooperate? Please give me a plan, Mr. Yang. By the way, help me evaluate how much the oil field can be estimated to be worth at the financial level according to this model. If I am willing to use the oil field
How can I make a mortgage or make a convertible bond?"
Hearing what Gu Kun meant, Mr. Yang also knew in his heart that he was indeed planning to contract to Huahai Oil in a one-stop service.
That being the case, the rest is easy to say. It is not a problem if the mining cost and gross profit per barrel are slightly overestimated.