How should the economic value of an oil field be estimated?
Obviously, it cannot be calculated based on the current international oil price, or even the expected international oil price, by simply multiplying the reserves.
As mentioned before, the value of each barrel of oil in different oil fields at different locations is different, and the expected production cost must be deducted.
Therefore, only after Huahai Oil helped Gu Kun estimate the expected mining costs can we continue to discuss the valuation.
"Assuming that the oil price is US$40 per barrel in three years' time, after deducting the oil price risk fluctuation factor, it is calculated as US$35 in the investment evaluation process.
Using the new offshore platform technology, the mining cost is controlled at US$15 per barrel. The basic gross profit per barrel is US$25, and the investment evaluation process determines the gross profit is US$20. Based on the lower limit of reserves of 2.2 billion barrels, the total basic gross profit is US$55 billion/44 billion US dollars.
"
“Assuming an industry benchmark gross profit distribution rate of 25% for international mining giants holding mining technology, the solid financial option benefits that can be attributed to oil field owners are US$33 billion.”
The Huahai Oil engineers under Mr. Yang and the senior evaluators urgently sent by China Construction Bank quickly made a detailed assessment and answered the Lanfang's demands. Their service attitude was simply excellent.
The matter of developing oil fields is not so easy to discuss directly. In theory, bidding is required. However, it is relatively convenient to use reserve rights to get some financing and invest in convertible bonds.
In particular, the landlord Gu Kun happens to have a large financing need right now. Party A is very urgent, so it is a godsend.
CCB actually ranks relatively low among the four major domestic banks in terms of strength, but such a large bank can easily handle the financing of a foreign oil field worth several billion barrels.
However, if this kind of thing were done in China, ICBC might be the first to get involved.
That is, in Lanzhou, because China Construction Bank has cooperated with Party A on many local infrastructure investment projects before. This time, of course, it is the first-come-first-served option.
CCB is very enthusiastic and has sent a number of decision-makers with sufficient levels to work on-site, as well as supporting many experienced personal consulting service personnel.
Especially those who are consultants, all of them are beauties, all beautiful, and always available. Obviously, if Gu Kun wants to use the issuance of convertible bonds as a bargaining chip, it will be easy for him to lurk for more than a dozen people.
It's loose. (It's impossible to attract customers with loans. You ask the bank for the loan. But when high-quality assets issue convertible bonds, it is very likely that the bank asks the customer.)
It's a pity that Gu Kun is too young. He is only 22 years old after the Chinese New Year. Now in June 1998, his exact age is just over half of his 21st birthday.
As for those female employees who have completed their studies in finance majors and have performed well for three to five years before they are qualified to do such major foreign investment projects, they must be at least 25 years old, and many of them are in their late teens.
30.
Gu Kun is naturally a very gentleman. He will not take advantage of old people, so he will treat it as giving up free benefits.
After a short and serious negotiation between the two parties, they believed that if Gu Kun was willing to mortgage the oil field 100%, it would be possible to raise more than 20 billion US dollars - the valuation is 330, but financing inherently carries interest, even if it is
If the loan is used for financial investment, which has a relatively short repayment period, banks generally have to leave two or three years of interest space.
According to the high interest rate environment during the current financial crisis, which is generally above 10% and 15% in some countries, it is very good to be able to borrow convertible bonds at 70% of 30 billion.
However, the rights and interests in these oil fields do not entirely belong to Gu Kun. There is still a small part that, according to the previous agreement when buying the land, belongs to Lanfang State.
In addition, the above-mentioned benefits only take into account pre-tax, and the 25% country income tax on profits in the oil industry is absolutely unavoidable.
After all the calculations, Gu Kun can raise up to 10 billion US dollars.
After discussing these rough matters, Gu Kun decided to report to Grand Duke Zhu Youdong in person.
…
It was already the next day, June 23, when Gu Kun found Zhu Youdong.
There was no other way, because all parties were very urgent, so a large amount of preliminary assessment work was completed in just one day.
Gu Kun wanted to ensure that a considerable part of the funds were raised, and he wanted to bet on the Hong Kong stock market and foreign exchange market as a last-ditch hand. He only had one week left, so he couldn't be careless.
This money does not necessarily have to be invested in the stock market at a high level. It is just defensive to ensure that there is enough ammunition when fighting the short sellers at the final stage. As long as the short sellers are eliminated, all of this money does not have to be invested. It should be kept in your hands for the medium term.
You can still find other good places to go.
When Gu Kun went there, Zhu Youdong was obviously not in a good mood, but rather complicated.
Although Lanfang has discovered a large oil field, the whole country may become rich overnight.
But at least half of these benefits went to Gu Kun, which made him sigh with regret.
For a moment, he even thought: If all these lands and rights were completely in his hands, then the balance of strength between him and Gu Kun would be completely reversed. Whether he would insist on recruiting Gu Kun as his son-in-law would be a question.
This is something that can be discussed in two ways.
Of course, just thinking about it, he had no other better son-in-law candidates to find anyway, and he even had to worry about whether Gu Kun would like his daughter if he went further.
"Well, this is life. I may just be destined to be destined to be with Gu Kun. Why should I worry about it when I am old? In those days, Lanfang was very poor. Such a little wealth was coveted by the colonists. Xiong
Er and Xixi were harmed. Now suddenly the value of the entire country has skyrocketed several times. If virtue is not matched, it is the crime of harboring a treasure and cannot be taken away. Let Gu Kun worry about balancing foreign forces."
After the two parties met, there was an awkward silence for a few seconds, and these thoughts quickly passed through Zhu Youdong's mind.
Xiong'er and Xixi that he thought of were obviously the nicknames of his eldest son and daughter. According to the naming rules of the old Zhu family, his children in this generation all have the character "fire" at four o'clock next to them.
Time will change a person. 15 years ago, when he was seeking independence for Lanzhou, he was just over 50 years old. As a politician, he was still a bit ambitious. After 15 years of setbacks, he is now over 65 years old.
, it is normal for the mentality to decline.
The two parties calmed down for a while with a tacit understanding, and then politely tested, and then Gu Kun said those clear-cut issues in a manner that would not irritate Zhu Youdong:
"Your Highness, if we use the newly discovered oil fields this time to seek medium-term financing of about two years from China Construction Bank, we can get a loan of about 20 billion US dollars. However, after excluding tax expectations, there will only be 15 billion left.
, if the proportion of state-owned shares set by Lanzhou’s law on the share of all mineral deposits is eliminated, only US$10 billion may be left.
I am here today to convince you to work with me and raise this US$15 billion together. Accordingly, in the future wave of short-term investments, if there are further benefits, I will ensure that the dividends are shared with the royal family in proportion.
.Even if I don’t need that much money in the future, or there is no project with enough income, I will end the loan repayment, principal and interest, of the funds belonging to the royal family in advance at an interest rate higher than the market interest rate.”
Zhu Youdong stared at Gu Kun's eyes carefully, hoping to see the other person's true thoughts, and then asked tentatively: "Do you need so much capital in the final stage of the Hong Kong stock market battle? If you invest too much, will you become a shareholder at a high position, but not
Good to get away?"
Since the economic crisis, Zhu Youdong has been learning continuously and has recruited relevant think tanks around him. Although those think tanks are not said to be very good at investing personally, their common sense and skills are still very solid, at least a little better than the stock commentators on the TV station who just make bad money.
.
Therefore, it is impossible for Gu Kun to obviously deceive Zhu Youdong on a big issue.
Gu Kun’s answer was straightforward: “I know that in the final sprint stage of the Hong Kong stock market battle, we can’t spend so much money, and I don’t plan to invest it all, or at least wait until there is a correction after July.
However, at the stage of convertible bond financing, we must use up our quota and borrow as much as possible. In this way, we can prevent the Chinese people, or CCB and the existence behind CCB that is higher than CCB, from having other ideas about us."
Zhu Youdong was slightly alert: "What do you mean? Make it clear!"
Gu Kun: "It's very simple. If we do not fully squeeze out the mortgage potential of the oil field, but give the other party the opportunity to 'take more of the collateral and lend less', then the other party will have the hope that we will not be able to repay the money."
, thus having the opportunity to formally launch the debt-for-equity swap process.
And the other party actually knows what we are going to do after we take the money. Whether we can afford to repay the money depends on whether the international bullish forces are fully united and work together to kill Soros - now in the Hong Kong stock market
Although the national team no longer continues to spend new money, they still have a lot of chips in the market and a lot of stock shares that have been settled.
If these stocks suddenly betray and run away, they will destroy us. Therefore, we must ensure that the interests of our collapse are far greater than the interests of Soros' collapse. Only then can we maintain this alliance most firmly until the end of the
At the last moment, I may not need that much money, but I must borrow enough to let China's financial system confirm that letting me pay back the money will make them more money, at least than if I can't pay back the money and then raid my home.
Earn more'.
As for 'even after I can repay the money, I will still take the initiative to invite China to invest in part of the shares of Lanfang Oilfield', or 'even if I can repay the money, CCB and CNOOC can also take the initiative to request part of the share s
Debt share', these are all extra sweeteners. We can tell them now that they will have it and confirm it in black and white. As for the specific proportion of foreign equity participation you think is allowed, this is the authority of your Holy See. I don't want to comment."
It is essential to be on guard against others. Gu Kun's general principle is to ensure that all partners expect him to be able to repay the money, and to ensure that when he can afford to repay the money, he can maximize the interests of all allies.
Otherwise, the risk of betrayal midway is inevitable, which Gu Kun cannot bear.
"The virtuous son-in-law has seen through everything, so why should he be judged? You can do it at your own discretion. I will give you full authority." Zhu Youdong had to admit that he had not seen Kun far enough.
If he is left to do it on his own, he may not be able to protect Lan Fang's maximum interests.