When the boss wants to run away, he never lets Liao Cai see that he wants to run away.
When the boss doesn't want to run away, Leek will always think that he wants to run away.
Therefore, when the last trading week of July came on the 27th, all the investors who had been fooled by the idea that "the Hang Seng Index had stabilized" were instantly shocked as soon as the market opened in the morning.
"Kowloon Shipping/Wharf/xx Maritime/xx Logistics plummeted across the board! The average drop was 15% in the morning! Trading volume was sparse!"
"Downward pressure began to drive the entire shipping industry sector in the afternoon! And when the price dropped to 20%~30%, some stocks saw heavy trading!"
All kinds of weird phenomena are not limited to one end. The money-loving stock commentators didn't know how to interpret them for a while. In short, the market trend of shipping stocks is gradually increasing in volume while falling all the way.
It sounds like the banker wants to cut off the meat and run away, but the acting is a bit poor.
Real bookmakers never seem to be so impatient and easily abandon so many valuations that have been pushed up in the process of running away.
Especially when some shipping stocks fell to more than 30% off, the price bubble was no longer so high. The operators of many high-quality companies with strong brands and international business channels also began to raise money to repurchase their stocks. The price fell sharply in a short period of time.
, it seems confusing.
This confusion lasted for a trading week, and on August 3, a piece of news finally cleared the air, making everyone think they could see things more clearly.
"Today, Lanfang Culture announced its bid for Xiangjiang xx Maritime. After many days of raising funds, Lanfang Culture once again expanded its shareholding on the basis of its previous status as a major shareholder, and has become the largest shareholder, with a shareholding of
45%.
Lanfang Culture now promises to make a privatization offer for the company at a 30% premium based on the average price of the past 18 days. If the majority of shareholders are willing to sell their shares, they can deliver them uniformly."
Gu Kun wants to buy some high-quality assets at the bottom! Take advantage of the trend to acquire a certain shipping company in Xiangjiang!
At this moment, everyone reacted.
Most of the equity in this shipping company must have been slowly acquired by Gu Kun when he was at seven or eight thousand points, so the overall acquisition cost should be relatively low.
In addition, the companies selected by Gu Kun all have low annual price-to-book ratios, low-profile brands, and relatively high-quality net assets. Therefore, they want to acquire companies to make up for the shortcomings of Lanfang's shipping industry and achieve "Lanfang".
"Industrial upgrading" is completely logical.
As for the conditions offered by the acquirer, such as "an additional 30% premium over the average price of the previous 180 days", it is actually meaningless, because the exchange's regulatory authorities will definitely investigate whether there is any suspicion of deliberately suppressing recent prices in this process.
Moreover, the result of the general investigation must be "if the recent average transaction price is significantly higher than the average transaction price of the past 180 days plus 30%", then the regulatory authorities will definitely require the acquirer to pay according to the recent average price plus a certain premium.
Acquired.
Gu Kun's attitude was purely for Xiao San's sake, and it did not mean that he would be able to successfully privatize it at the price he wanted.
As for the successful privatization, it does not mean that Xiaosan or other shareholders have to sell all their stocks to Gu Kun's Lanfang Culture, allowing Gu Kun to achieve 100% control.
It’s just that privatization will cause the stock to be delisted from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. From then on, the company’s shares will no longer be publicly traded on the secondary market. It will be more troublesome to sell the shares. Internal shareholders must negotiate with each other first to attract funds.
The valuation will not be as high as the listed state, and one set may last a lifetime.
For those who don't want to "become shareholders through stock trading", they will definitely run away as soon as they hear about privatization.
If you trust Gu Kun so much that you don’t want to run away for the rest of your life, and want to continue to receive dividends from the new company reorganized into "Lanfang Maritime", and believe that Gu Kun can distribute enough dividends to all shareholders, then it doesn’t matter if you keep it.
.
Gu Kun was very tolerant of this kind of younger brother who was willing to cling to him because he believed in his future.
…
The privatization and delisting process of a maritime company may take several months, and it can be completed by the end of the third quarter or October at the earliest, which is already considered fast.
Liang Jinsong couldn't really wait for the shipping stocks to decide the winner before moving on to other sectors, so in August he successively copied this in other areas where he wanted to acquire high-quality assets and sell out part of the bubble to cash out.
Operations on shipping stocks.
However, the longer these sectors hold back, the lower the recent stock price of the acquisition target stock is temporarily made, and the longer it lasts at a low level, the lower the cost of privatization and delisting will be.
In addition, in addition to the officially announced privatization news, false news is also flying on the streets.
For example, Gu Kun was actually interested in a certain medium-sized bank with relatively stable net assets, Xiangjiang Bank A, and actually wanted to privatize Bank A.
But in the process of building momentum and selling chips to suppress prices, the stock price that may be the most suppressed at the beginning is not A, but the stock price of another bank B.
If Gu Kun openly said in a public statement that he wanted to privatize b, and then went back on his word, he would definitely be punished by the regulatory authorities.
However, the securities laws of any country will not control gossip from unknown sources.
"Gu Kun may have wanted to pretend that he wanted to privatize a, to cover up his behavior of suppressing the stock prices of other stocks in the same sector, and actually privatized b after a few months to half a year." This kind of statement can be completely made by those who do not have to bear the responsibility.
Liability for common leeks is spread by word of mouth.
The official can even make repeated clarifications and fulfill their clarification obligations when the rumors are spreading the most, but this still cannot change what the followers are willing to believe.
In this way, whether Gu Kun wants to privatize or take advantage of the opportunity to sell off his chips becomes more confusing and deceptive.
And the best thing is that no one else can learn this shipping method.
Because in the prevailing financial crisis atmosphere in Southeast Asia, the mainstream trend in surrounding countries today is deflation, a shortage of liquidity, and a lack of money.
Even if there is one that is not so short of money, the industrial structure is not complementary to that of Xiangjiang, and there is no capital to "take over the industries that Xiangjiang transferred out during the crisis."
But Lanfang has it. As a port country on the main international trade route, Lanfang has always been benchmarking and learning from Li Jiapo. Now, during the financial crisis, Li Jiapo is not suitable for bargain hunting due to the low degree of disaster damage and the inability to push down asset prices.
It is also very reasonable to change the situation to Xiangjiang.
Except for Gu Kun, any sovereign investor from a Southeast Asian country who pretends to "buy a shipping company, bank, and real estate company to upgrade related industries in the country" will not be able to deceive investors.
…
With such an excellent shipping environment, it becomes much easier to cash out equity.
In August, Gu Kun sold less than half of the shipping sector on the Hong Kong stock market. By the end of the third quarter at the end of September, Liang Jinsong had almost sorted out the entire shipping sector for him.
At its peak, there were about 10 billion U.S. dollars of Xiangjiang shipping shares in Gu Kun's hands. In the end, only an upper-middle-class shipping company with a total share capital of about 2 billion U.S. dollars was left, and the complete privatization was completed (this was part of the premium during the privatization process.
, the original market value was less than 2 billion US dollars)
The remaining more than 8 billion U.S. dollars of stocks were all sold off and turned into 6 billion U.S. dollars in cash. About 2 billion evaporated in the process, but this was within an acceptable range. After all, the market value is not equal to the cash-out amount.
A 30% or 20% discount turned into cash is considered a victory when the stock index is at a high level.
Although in the case of privatization, Gu Kun made a small loss and bought a less valuable company at a high price, this privatization covered the withdrawal of other funds, explaining Gu Kun's selling of other shipping stocks as a "technical adjustment"
”, is “In order to successfully privatize this company, it had to withdraw funds from other peer companies.”
In other words, the impression that Gu Kun sells stocks is no longer to escape, but to optimize integration, "in order to buy shares of companies with more potential, he has to throw away some relatively junk stocks to raise funds."
money".
In any stock market crash selling wave, the easiest thing to deceive small investors is "technical adjustment".
Even if the Oceania stock market circuit breaker occurred twice a week in later generations, in order to stabilize people's hearts, the Oceania authorities at first used Twitter to talk about the country's governance, calling it a "technical adjustment."
Compared with the senior experts on Wall Street, the operations of Gu Kun and Liang Jinsong can be said to be very conscientious.
After shipping stocks, the operation of financial stocks is similar, but the answer sheet will not be completely handed in until the end of the year.
According to subsequent review, Gu Kun originally held the second largest number of chips in the Hong Kong financial sector, second only to real estate stocks.
At that time, Gu Kun's 80 billion U.S. dollars in chips included about 45 billion U.S. dollars in real estate and finance combined, more than 20 billion in shipping and network telecommunications, and several billions in other miscellaneous sectors, less than 10 billion.
Most of the 20 billion financial sector stocks eventually ran away according to the idea of "mixing escapes with privatized blue-chip stocks and disguising them as technical adjustments."
In the end, Gu Kun got a Hong Kong bank with a market value of US$5 billion, and the remaining 15 billion in other financial stocks turned into about 13 billion in cash.
In the process, the Hang Seng Index also fell along with the general decline in the financial and shipping industries.
From 16,500 at the end of July, to below the 15,000 mark at the end of August, to 14,000 at the end of September and 12,000 at the end of the year. However, there was no big panic in the whole process.
Once again, it was stabilized by the slogan of "technical adjustment".
Among them, Liang Jinsong naturally did a lot of very important work to stabilize people's hearts, but he was specialized in the art, and Gu Kun couldn't understand the details.
Relying on the 5 billion US dollars in cash withdrawn from the shipping industry, 13 billion from the financial industry, and other miscellaneous sectors, Gu Kun finally cashed out 2 to 3 billion US dollars, and finally used his previous investment in the Hong Kong stock market.
The leverage owed to the margin financing and securities lending institutions was completely closed and paid off.
At least he no longer has to worry about being liquidated by other new short sellers who react because of the increased leverage.
"For stocks with a market value of 80 billion U.S. dollars, the shipping industry has reduced its holdings by 11 billion, the financial industry has reduced its holdings by 20 billion, and other miscellaneous chips have reduced its holdings by 4 billion. The balance of chips on the market should be 45 billion U.S. dollars. The main remaining
Internet and telecommunications stocks, which are already at very high levels, plus a large number of real estate companies, have also experienced natural downward depreciation. Currently, the total share capital is only 40 billion.
However, the 21 billion leverage was finally paid off. The follow-up was equivalent to using 13 billion capital in exchange for 40 billion stocks on the market, and picking up a shipping company worth 2 billion and a bank worth 5 billion.
, and a neglected real estate company.”
The ease of completely paying off leverage is not something that ordinary people can experience.
——
(ps: Apologize, I admit that there is a bit too much data in these chapters. Maybe it’s because I’m a bit of a text-exquisite person, I like to delve into research, and my writing is too logical and rational. But the good news is that it’s over today, and there will be no more financial chapters in the future.
A plot full of accounting tricks.
Let’s start to re-enter the rhythm of cool writing tomorrow. There are some things that I didn’t plan to write in such detail at first. In the process of writing, I studied and deepened it, and found that there are more problems than I imagined in the initial outline, especially how to run in the running part.
, I admit that I was not professional at first, and even my initial ideas were a bit fake)