Chapter 120 Run away easily (End of the Southeast Asian Financial Crisis)
After paying off all the leverage, Gu Kun only had 40 billion U.S. dollars in chips left in the market, which was finally more than half of what he had at his peak.
After achieving this step, he no longer fears that new international short sellers will react and then short-sell and bet on his position.
However, this last $40 billion in chips is also the most difficult to sell, and it is impossible to escape within this year at least.
It is almost inevitable that the Internet telecommunications and media stocks sector will not be able to exit until the peak of the Internet concept bubble in 1999. However, it is still beneficial to hold this part for a long time, because the bubble will definitely be bigger than the current one by then.
Of the 40 billion chips Gu Kun currently has on hand, network telecommunications stocks total US$14 billion, and real estate stocks and other miscellaneous items add up to US$26 to 28 billion.
According to historical development, one share of Xiangjiang Telecom will be worth US$12 billion by this time next year (but Gu Kun did not acquire all the shares of Xiangjiang Telecom because the stock has not been privatized and Gu Kun does not want to delist. He
Currently, it is only the largest shareholder raising the flag.)
Yingke Digital's historical peak reached 580 billion Hong Kong dollars, which is equivalent to more than 70 billion US dollars - but Gu Kun did not expect Yingke Digital to be promoted to such a high level in this life.
Because the reason why Yingke Digital's capital operations in history were so ruthless was entirely because it was a bubble created by the Li family. Now Gu Kun has bought almost all of Yingke Digital in the circulating stock market, and what is left in the hands of the Li family is
Those are non-tradable shares, so the Li family's shareholding ratio is several percent less than in another time and space.
Under this situation, Gu Kun was very clear-headed. He knew that Young Master Li might still promote Yingke Digital to cash out, but he would definitely not work as hard as in the past.
After all, after pulling up, Gu Kun can also drink a few mouthfuls of soup. The Li family works and the Li family takes money. How can there be such a good thing in the world?
At best, it will just be a pull at no cost.
But no matter what, Gu Kun estimates that the network telecommunications stocks he has on hand, with a current value of 14 billion U.S. dollars, may reach more than 30 billion U.S. dollars next year when the market value is artificially high. Even if they are sold for cash, they will be able to sell at least more than 20 billion U.S. dollars.
So as long as the problem of forced liquidation of leveraged positions is solved in this part, there is no need to worry at all.
Finally, the real hard nut is the US$26-28 billion real estate stocks.
These things are the real thorn in the side.
Because although they are indeed worth the price at present, Gu Kun knows that Xiangjiang's real estate will be in a downturn for at least five years in the future, and this industry generally has no prospects.
Even if real estate picks up again five years later, as historical inertia does, the property market in Xiangjiang will never be able to regain liquidity because housing prices are too high. It is a typical "price but no market" situation with high prices and sluggish transaction volume.
People can afford it.
In the same way, despite the high market value of the real estate companies of some of the richest men in Hong Kong in later generations, those companies are also relatively fictitious, relying on the stock of high-priced real estate that cannot be sold to support their book wealth.
Therefore, real estate stocks must be run.
Maybe not in the second half of this year, because in the second half of this year all the hot money in the market has been sucked away by Gu Kun's other easy-to-run sectors. At this time, if he sells real estate stocks forcefully, he will easily collapse the stock price and lose more than the loss.
But in the first half of next year, after other sectors have finished running, and before network telecommunications starts running, Gu Kun must take advantage of the time gap of more than half a year and try his best to sell out all the shares of Xiangjiang Real Estate Company.
It doesn’t matter whether it’s Hutchison Whampoa or Cheung Kong Holdings, don’t take any of them.
…
No matter how hard the problem is, it has to be cracked. If the boss can't handle it, the client will be asked to find a way.
Liang Jinsong also felt that Gu Kun's plan of "preparing to accelerate the exit of real estate stocks from the end of the year" was one big and one big.
Because Liang Jinsong is a native of Xiangjiang after all, he has a habitual affection for many industries in Xiangjiang.
At this juncture in 1998, although the housing prices in Xiangjiang fell by more than 10% compared with last year when it was returned to China, most people did not think that this would be a turning point for the real estate industry to slump.
On the contrary, financial elites like Liang Jinsong and real estate tycoons like Boss Li and Boss Zheng are fantasizing about the prospect of "small profits but quick turnover".
There is no way, there is no precedent for this in history.
"Small profits but quick turnover" is applicable in any other economic field. When prices fall, sales volume will definitely increase. This is the most basic economic common sense.
As for the Japanese, five or six years ago, they experienced a wave of "after the price plummeted, the trading volume also plummeted." However, the people in Hong Kong in 1998 never regarded the Japanese experience as a universal rule. Instead, they believed that it was just "a general rule."
Cases resulting from the general collapse of the real estate bubble.
There is no such thing as a "bubble bursting instantly" in real estate in Xiangjiang. Everyone believes that the current decline in housing prices is just a result of the increase in the amount of land that the authorities can sell every year after the handover. It is a normal "increased supply leading to a decline in prices."
", is healthy.
Shouldn’t people hurry up and buy?
In the real estate market in 1998, except for the crash-type ones in Japan, there was indeed very little precedent of "don't buy if house prices fall". Everyone couldn't understand it and there was nothing they could do about it.
But when did Gu Kun come back? He is the one who knows best that "the rigid demand for real estate has always been a false proposition."
Don’t say that buying a house is a necessity! My mother-in-law forced me to buy a house because it is a necessity! It’s all nonsense!
At best, it can only be said that "having a house to live in" is a rigid need, but the action of "buying" is definitely not a rigid need!
As long as housing prices seem to be going down, a bunch of people who once swore they just needed it will instantly choose to rent rather than buy.
It’s not going to go up anyway, so it’s a waste of money to buy!
The consumption attribute of a house only exists in the two aspects of living and renting. When it comes to the verb of buying, don't doubt it, there is no impulse to consume at all, it is 100% purely an investment.
Therefore, Gu Kun knew that no one would support the property market where "the bubble has not burst, it is just falling rationally".
He is more determined than Liang Jinsong and other Hong Kong investment tycoons on this point, which is enough to give him a big advantage.
This would at least make Gu Kun several times more determined than others when he evacuated.
"...No matter what you think, I just want the real estate stocks to run away at this speed! What you can do is not to help me correct my decision-making. At most, you can just tell me that if I insist on doing this, I will lose a few percent of the market value -
—In other words, your duty is to let me cash out the money with as little loss as possible."
Regardless of whether Liang Jinsong understood it or not, after Gu Kun explained the above truth in a roundabout way, he directly gave the order.
Liang Jinsong could only shrug helplessly: "Well, since you are willing to bear all the consequences of this decision, I will help you implement it, but you must be mentally prepared.
We follow the simplest algorithm. When you first opened a position in these real estate stocks, it was generally at seven or eight thousand points. Now there are still 13,000 points left. If we calculate on average, I can put the market value of 26 to 28 billion.
For real estate stocks, if you can realize 15 to 17 billion US dollars, that is the limit. In other words, in the worst case scenario, you have to be prepared to lose 11 billion in market value and turn the stocks back into money!
It's equivalent to the real estate stock market where you just came in and made a lot of money, earning a little bit of hard-earned money. There was no major gain, it was just a grudge and killing Soros."
Strictly speaking, even if it makes no money or only a small profit, but it can ensure that Soros is killed, then it is considered acceptable.
Moreover, it’s not that Gu Kun really doesn’t make money, it’s just that he broke the business into pieces and found that some parts of it were not very profitable.
He has already made money in Hong Kong's shipping, financial and technology stocks, or is very sure to make money soon. The real estate stocks are used to block the pursuers, and let his comrades run first when they run away.
Even if you are the God of War, you cannot require every part of the army to have a higher battle loss exchange ratio than the enemy. The sacrifice of the troops behind you during the retreat is for the sake of the overall situation.
It's just that Liang Jinsong has always regarded himself as "the president of Hong Kong's first-class fund", so his requirements are a bit high, and he feels that it is a bit embarrassing to just be labeled like this.
The two parties discussed many drafts in detail, but there was no good idea. They always felt that if they had to withdraw, a reduction of tens of billions in market value would be inevitable.
Finally, Liang Jinsong, who was really desperate, had a flash of inspiration, gritted his teeth and stamped his feet: "If it doesn't work, we can only 'kill the dragon and grow scales ourselves'. The worst is, after we kill Soros,
Just learn from Soros.”
Gu Kun raised his eyebrows: "What do you mean? Be specific."
Liang Jinsong sneered and shrugged at you: "What else can it mean? It's obvious. For example, when we plan to withdraw funds intensively in the first half of next year, we will try to induce a wave of exchange rate linkage and find incentives to induce banks to cut interest rates.
, bond interest rates are cut, and more hot money from outside the circle is introduced into the stock market, and then we run.”
Strictly speaking, Liang Jinsong’s reverse thinking is different from Soros’s.
Because Soros induced interest rate hikes to lower stock prices, and then went short.
The plan that Liang Jinsong slapped on his forehead was to induce interest rate cuts to raise the stock price, and then take advantage of others to go long and cash out.
And he is obviously more divergent. He does not necessarily need banks to cut interest rates, but bonds will do.
In short, it is just to "find a way to reduce the attractiveness of other categories in Xiangjiang's local financial market and make the stock market appear more attractive in disguise."
Very common thinking.
Gu Kun thought for a while and commented: "We need to link up with more markets to attract hot money into the stock market... The idea is quite satisfactory, but it would be a bit shameful for us to kill Soros and then imitate Soros. If we use the same trick again, we will attract hatred.
Too many, the good reputation I have built up over the years has been ruined, and the effect has been to make people more wary...
I think it’s better to do this. Since you have thought about the linkage between foreign exchange stocks and debt stocks, we might as well just do the linkage between real estate stocks. House prices continue to fall, and the decline becomes larger. People in the Hong Kong investment community are very optimistic about this expectation.
Few, now I am almost the only one holding it. Then we will follow through and create some panic about the housing price bubble and attract real estate speculation funds to the stock market.
If Boss Li and others don’t want the real estate market to panic and real estate stocks to panic, just let them raise more money through equity pledge financing.”
The linkage between real estate and stocks is a common old trick in mainland China in later generations. Every time there is bad news about stagnation in housing prices, impatient money will flow into the stock market, and then the stock market will usher in a general rise.
This can be regarded as a kind of financial linkage with Chinese characteristics in the future. Even houses can be linked with bonds and stocks to become a pure financial product.
Liang Jinsong was a little confused: "You're talking bad about real estate to be bullish about real estate stocks? Are you kidding me? Damn...it seems really possible. Alas, we Chinese love saving money so much, we have no choice, we can't keep our money idle. This
Let me think about it, maybe I can save billions of dollars of meat when I run away."