——A sea flower, as red as fire, with strands of strands, lying quietly at the bottom of the cup, and it is not the pickled artificial flower with red ginger that was put in the cocktail before, but a flower that seems to have just grown from a vine.
Manzhu Shahua picked from above.
It is not like those ordinary flowers, which are incomparably beautiful and delicate. On the contrary, it has a sharp color that can cause pain in people, as if there is a kind of loneliness that can repel people thousands of miles away.
But this does not affect its extremely bright fiery red color at all, as if it was dyed by the painstaking efforts of lovesickness, which reminds people of the legend of the flower of the other side blooming on the banks of the Forgotten River.
The moment he saw this flower, Zhang Ke felt as if there was a bud that had been sealed for a long time in his memory, slowly blooming in the depths of his mind. Memories like a tide came in all directions, but they quickly disappeared.
In the dry and empty memories, only a little trace of water remains.
Some fragmented pictures and a few keywords of unknown meaning emerged in his mind, but he could not connect them into complete memories - it seemed because his amnesia was too severe, and even the few memories that occasionally recovered could not be restored.
It has become unreal because most of the connections have been lost.
"Congratulations, you really guessed it right." The bartender said with a smile, "The real sea flower is indeed hidden in the C cup. You changed the answer at the last minute. It was a very wise choice."
"...What is your purpose?" Yuan Mengmeng looked at the bartender suspiciously. She didn't believe at all that the bartender was just playing a game or letting him win - or it might be the other way around. He just wanted Zhang Ke.
Only by winning can certain subsequent goals be achieved.
So she immediately went to open the remaining B cups on the field, only to find that they were empty and there were no sea flowers.
"It's really not..." Yuan Mengmeng also felt a little confused now. She just thought that there were flowers under the two cups BC, and the bartender deliberately took away the A to ensure that Zhang Ke won, so that she could continue.
Prepared plan.
But now it seems that the bartender did not commit any foul play. Only one of the three cups did have flowers, and Zhang Ke did guess the right answer by luck.
"Is it really just good luck and a 1/2 chance of getting the bet right?" Yuan Mengmeng said with some confusion, "But if that's the case, why go to the trouble of preparing three cups in advance? From the beginning,
There are only two cups left to choose from, right?”
"No, Mengmeng, removing one of the three cups and then choosing is a meaningful behavior." Zhang Ke said thoughtfully, "In other words, it means the same as choosing the correct answer from the two cups.
Totally different."
"What's the difference? Isn't it the same as choosing one of the two? It's just an extra step in the process of eliminating a wrong answer." Yuan Mengmeng said in confusion.
"No, the reason why you have such an idea is that you have fallen into a misunderstanding that ordinary people will fall into - that is, when I make my second choice, the probability of having flowers in each of the two cups is still the same.
It’s fifty percent each.”
Hearing Zhang Ke's words, the smile on the bartender's face became even brighter, and Yuan Mengmeng's doubts seemed to deepen, but she did not interrupt, but waited for Zhang Ke to continue.
"When he first asked me to choose one of three, the probability of a flower in each cup was indeed one-third, but when I chose an answer, which was B, he added the remaining AC to
The cup removes one wrong answer, which is A. At this time, I am asked to choose to maintain B or change to C." Zhang Ke said:
"Because there are two cups left on the field at this time, and what the bartender did was just remove an option that didn't have a flower in the first place, and didn't touch the flowers already in the cup. It seemed like nothing had changed.
, can be equivalent to choosing one of two cups.”
"Yes, I think so too... Since A has been ruled out, whether you choose B or C, isn't it the same 1/2 probability?" Yuan Mengmeng said in response.
"However, is this really the case?" Zhang Ke asked rhetorically, "If you think about it carefully, the most critical difference between this scenario and the hypothetical scenario where there is no A from the beginning and a direct choice between BC and BC is
where?"
"Uh... is it because you chose B first? Then he eliminated the answer?" Yuan Mengmeng thought for a while and said with some uncertainty, "But, no matter whether you chose the right one at the beginning, he can eliminate one answer.
The answer that is definitely wrong seems to be no different from choosing one of the two."
"No, actually you have noticed the key to the essential difference between the two, but you just haven't figured it out yet." Zhang Ke said, "Actually, the moment I chose B, the cup situation on the field was divided into two groups.
, one is Group B, and the other is Group AC - that is to say, the probability of spending it in Group B, that is, the probability of my guessing right is one-third; and the probability of spending it in Group AC, that is, my probability of guessing wrong.
The probability is two-thirds, is this understandable?"
"Of course... because group B only has one cup B, but group AC has two cups AC, so the odds are naturally doubled, and then what?" Yuan Mengmeng just finished asking this question, and suddenly seemed to realize it.
What? He glanced thoughtfully at the A cup that had been ruled out from the beginning, and a glimmer of understanding flashed in his eyes.
"It seems that you probably understand it - yes, the probability of group B having flowers is one-third, and the probability of group AC having flowers is two-thirds. Now let me tell you that cup A in group AC has no flowers.
Then the two-thirds chance will all fall on the C cup." Zhang Ke said, "That is, the chance of having a flower in the B cup is one-third, and the chance of having a flower in the C cup is two-thirds."
"That's why, based on probability, the correct way is to change the option and bet on the two-thirds probability." Zhang Ke explained, "This is the reason why I finally changed my choice."
"No wonder he asked you if you want to change your options. It turns out that there is a higher probability of flowers in the C cup, but..." Yuan Mengmeng still touched her head in confusion and said in disbelief, "But why is this happening?
What? It’s really hard to understand. Compared with the situation of choosing one of the two, he actually didn’t do anything. He just eliminated one wrong answer. Why did the probability of BC two cups become three points?
What about one and two thirds?”
"The key point is to eliminate wrong answers." Zhang Ke said, "Thinking about it from another angle, the two-thirds probability of cup C is actually equivalent to the probability that I chose the wrong answer in the first place; and the one-third probability of cup B is
, which is equivalent to the probability that I chose the right one in the first place——"