Chapter 65 The level of dignity of the poorest people in a country is determined by the scientists of this country
Because the Southeast Asian financial crisis in his previous life was very painful for Gu Kun, he had a thorough understanding of the details in this area in his previous life, and he also searched for review information on the Internet afterwards.
He also has a good idea of whether he has the ability to snipe Soros and how he should snipe Soros, and he will never blindly rush forward.
According to past and present information, when Soros first attacked the Thai baht in the second half of 1997, he used as much as US$3 billion of his own funds.
Moreover, because Soros took a relatively short time to establish a position, he could use a higher leverage ratio, which is said to be 15 times, and the total international hot capital leveraged reached US$45 billion.
Some people may wonder: since the time to build a position is short and the fluctuations during the process of building a position are small, it can help increase the leverage ratio. So why did Gu Kun choose the method of slow position building and small leverage ratio? What if he was as fast as Soros?
By opening a position, wouldn’t it be possible to mobilize more funds?
This is because Gu Kun himself does not have the ability to stir up a storm. He just plays a safe hand first, builds a position, waits for the market maker to stir up the market, and follows the trend. So when the market will come, Soros knows clearly, Gu Kun
He doesn't know, he has to go in early and wait, which means he has to build positions steadily and tolerate low leverage.
In this life, the situation will be somewhat different, but Gu Kun chose to pay attention to his enemies, assuming that Soros could still leverage at least 45 billion US dollars.
Therefore, if he went against Soros during the Thai baht storm, Gu Kun's strength would definitely not be enough and he would lose all his money. How could 400 million and 2 billion be used against 3 billion and 45 billion? He could only follow Soros's actions.
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So, after seeing this step, readers who don’t know much about the subsequent history may have a second question:
Since Gu Kun can't go against Soros this time, why can he do it again a year later during the Hong Kong dollar turmoil?
If he just follows the trend and cuts peaks and fills valleys in advance, Gu Kun may slightly lower Soros's income, and even be better than Soros in terms of multiples of income. But in terms of absolute value of income, Soros will definitely be far better.
Gu Kun's.
For example, if Gu Kun's 400 million becomes 1 billion, and the net profit is 600 million, the value will be appreciated to 2.5 times in terms of multiples.
Then Soros may change from 3 billion to 6 billion or 7 billion. In terms of multiples, it is 2 times or 2.3 times, which is not as high as Gu Kun's 2.5 times. But the absolute income is 3 billion or 4 billion, which is more than Gu Kun.
Much more. (There may be tens of billions of dollars or more in profits, which have been shared by other international hot money following Soros's lead)
A year later, Gu Kun relied on 1 billion to take advantage of Soros's 7 billion. Isn't he still trying to kill a stone with an egg?
If there are only two factors in the market, Gu Kun and Soros, then maybe this is correct.
But the problem is that Gu Kun knows that during the Hong Kong dollar turmoil in history, Soros retreated. Not only did he spit out all the money he earned from the Thai baht turmoil, but he also vomited at least part of it. Historically, Soros was on the opposite side.
, is a macro-control method used by Xiangjiang to protect the market and uses a large amount of Xiangjiang’s foreign exchange reserves.
Therefore, even in the Hong Kong dollar hedging a year later, Gu Kun did not intend to personally play the main role. He only wanted to be a vanguard to lure the enemy, allowing Soros to pursue deeper, and then wait for the main force to protect the market to appear, and then together
Beat Soros even worse.
Since this is the case, as long as Soros earns a little less this year and the total capital against Soros increases next year, the chance of winning will be higher.
Because the potential main force protecting the market has always been there. Soros did not expect that there would be macro-control protection. It was just because Soros misjudged that the "absolutely free market for financial transactions" sign was valuable and believed that macro-control would damage market freedom.
degree of credit.
…
After having a clear positioning of himself, Gu Kun seemed to be very comfortable with his response measures in the prelude to this wave of attacks on the Thai baht.
Starting from the week of July 7, when everything was ready, Liang Jinsong's Blackstone Fund began to help Gu Kun build a position step by step, "borrow Thai baht spot to buy U.S. dollars, and sell U.S. dollars to pay off the Thai baht after the option expires."
Soros is like a black hand plotting to run on a certain bank.
Gu Kun seemed to know in advance that he was going to run, so before the run happened, he borrowed enough mortgage loans from the bank that was about to be run. (The "collateral" in this metaphor is Gu Kun's $400 million in capital.
gold)
However, in the foreign exchange options market, when the bank in the metaphor encounters a run, it has the right to "in order to prevent a credit collapse, it will give discounts to customers with unexpired loans in exchange for early repayment of loans to the bank for emergency relief."
"This kind of decision-making.
When Gu Kun comes to the rescue and repays the loan during the run period, he can repay less. After taking into account the leverage ratio, the difference can be pocketed as a net profit.
Liang Jinsong's method of helping Gu Kun to open a position was very sound. In the first week, including leverage, he only opened a position of US$300 million, so the foreign exchange market basically did not notice this source of fluctuation.
Liang Jinsong also released some false news and rumors, whitewashing Gu Kun's opening of a position as the behavior of other international buyers, and also whitewashed the reason as "A cultural and tourism investment tycoon has raised his expectations for the future development prospects of Thailand's tourism industry."
". In this way, no one will be alert, and they will think that someone really wants to temporarily raise the Thai baht to make a small difference.
In this atmosphere, as July passed halfway, the second week of position building period also passed very steadily. Without increasing costs, the position reached 800 million US dollars.
I have to admit that although this series of decisions were made by Gu Kun himself, Blackstone Fund's delicate operating techniques definitely played a major role. Otherwise, if he changed to an agency that was not stable enough, other investors would have discovered it long ago, and rumors would be flying all over the sky.
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However, as more and more money poured in, it became increasingly difficult to hide it. By late July, everything was finally discovered by Soros.
…
One day in late July, New York, Wall Street, Quantum Fund headquarters.
"Boss, there are currently some abnormal positions in the Thai baht market. The redemption period has not yet been ascertained. However, the long-term purpose of these buyers must be to short the Thai baht, just like us - could they be some of the people you have attracted?
Allies, did not follow the planned pace and jumped ahead of schedule?"
One of Soros's valet immediately reported the latest abnormality detected to his boss.
Soros squinted his thief eyes, and calmly scanned the situation reported by his subordinates in detail, then rubbed his big aquiline nose and pondered for a few seconds:
"Call Ronstein, Dornberger, xx Stein, yy Berg... and give them a try."
He gave out a long list of names of people from the Golden Tribe, such as Stan and Borg. Obviously, these were the international hot money accomplices he had half-hidden in advance.
It is necessary to keep this kind of thing as confidential as possible, but you have to contact us in advance, otherwise you will not be able to get so much money by relying on one company.
So I usually don't finish my words, let the other party understand by letting some news, be mentally prepared, and prepare the money first. Then when I see that there is a hint of a mastermind taking action, I will follow the trend and rush in as soon as possible.
As for whether to follow the trend, whether you dare to follow the trend, and how closely you should follow the trend, it also depends on whether the previous cooperation was pleasant and whether Soros will deceive his teammates.
And in this kind of thing, there is no guarantee that you will not encounter teammates who are more keen than the mastermind, guessing one step ahead, or being more greedy and aggressive.
Now that we encounter a mysterious position opening that obviously exceeds the planned speed, we must conduct an internal investigation.
Unfortunately, after a round of phone calls, nothing was gained.
"Who lied to me, or was it some idiot among them who leaked inside information that they didn't even know about?"
Soros couldn't help but ponder,
"Or, is there really someone who thinks the same thing and predicts the unsustainability of Thailand's rapid economic growth like me?"
Even if he couldn't find the answer, he still had to provide emergency countermeasures. After thinking briefly, Soros decided to make a decisive decision:
"Tell Shirley to speed up the opening of positions! We will not hesitate to lose 5% of the basic transaction price!"
"Okay boss, we know what to do."
Accelerating the opening of a position will definitely make the market fluctuations of fund-raising intensify, and the difference between the final average cost and the final price when the short position is closed will also shrink, thus shrinking the short-selling profit.
Moreover, if the transaction price of the current position is lost by 5%, the future profit loss will definitely exceed 5%. This is easy to understand. Let’s use elementary school mathematics as an example to calculate it.
For example, assuming that the current exchange rate of the Thai Baht is 100%, and if the price drops to 95% due to accelerated short selling, the final exchange rate of the Thai Baht may be only 40% of the current price after a collapse in the future. If a position is opened at 100% and falls to 40% for shipment and closing,
The profit is 60%. If 95% is opened and 40% is closed, the profit is 55%.
The final loss of money earned is 55% divided by 60%, which means a loss of approximately 8%.
However, no matter how great the loss in opening a position is, what is more important now is obviously to prevent long nights and dreams caused by too slow opening of a position.
Soros and the allies he has attracted have uncharacteristically accelerated the pace of building positions within a few days, making the Thai authorities increasingly stretched to defend the exchange rate.
There was a large amount of short selling with a term ranging from a few months to a year at most, desperately buying Thai baht to exchange for the foreign exchange reserves of the Thai authorities, and almost buying up all the US dollars reserved by Thai financial institutions.
In addition, since the end of last year, Thailand's export growth has stalled, the stock market has fallen, and various other hidden dangers have been on the verge of walking a tightrope.
When the pressure on foreign exchange reserves was the last straw, Thailand's financial regulator was finally ready to completely abandon the baht's binding exchange rate system with the U.S. dollar in August.
To be fair, the Thai people’s misfortune is not entirely worthy of sympathy. It is also largely self-inflicted: in 1995, when the export growth rate was 18%, Thailand actually dared to pay the minimum price in order to please the people at the bottom.
Wage standards were raised by 23%. As a result, export growth in 1996 dropped to almost zero growth.
Originally, this country's re-export processing industry had no technical advantages and relied entirely on cheap labor. It also raised the lowest price of labor by 23%. So isn't the shrinking exports self-inflicted?
To be fair, Soros was able to succeed, and speculation only played a minor role. Thailand itself has experienced a contraction in exports, and the international financing market has lowered its expectations for Thailand's prospects. This is the main reason.
Therefore, people who earn the minimum wage in a country should actually be grateful to the scientists of this country. How much minimum wage can they earn and how dignified can they live? The dignity of the poorest people in Oceania is fought for by the scientific researchers of Oceania.
of.
A small country like Thailand without any core technology, but trying to violate the laws of the market to give the poorest people a little more dignity, will eventually be crushed by the laws of the market.