Gu Kun, who was far away in Southeast Asia, did not know the details about Soros secretly accelerating the establishment of a position in New York, and he had no intention of understanding it.
From Gu Kun's point of view, he only hoped that his own position opening could be executed safely and smoothly.
A month passed quickly and everything was stable.
Although Gu Kun has graduated, Lin Ying is on summer vacation and will not be entering her junior year until school starts in September, and her sister Gu Pan is only going to be her sophomore year.
In addition, none of his relatives had ever been to Xiangjiang before, so Gu Kun decided to stay in Xiangjiang for a while to prepare for the Thai baht storm before he considered returning to Lanzhou.
Anyway, in the daily cultural, tourism and entertainment business in Lanfang, nothing major happens, and the remote control can handle it.
Frankly speaking, there are quite a lot of tourist attractions worth visiting in Xiangjiang, and you can definitely play there for half a month without getting bored or repeating the same things.
If it goes on for a longer period of time, men will easily become bored and have to rely on entertainment venues such as Lan Kwai Fong for support, or they may find female stars in the entertainment industry to party with for excitement.
But women can definitely buy and buy and stay in Hong Kong for a whole year without getting tired of it.
August 9th, Chinese Valentine’s Day.
Early that morning, Gu Kun personally drove his Ferrari F50 with one hand and took Lin Ying and Gu Pan to go shopping. The bodyguards drove a Cadillac bulletproof car and followed him from a distance to protect him.
When he arrived at the top luxury shopping mall in Central, Gu Kun found a place to sit down and drink tea, close his eyes and rest his mind, leaving the two women to fool around on their own.
During this time, he has been staying at the Peninsula Hotel, still in the presidential suite. Gu Pan came two weeks ago and stayed there too. She is his sister anyway, and the suite has more than one bedroom, so there is no need to avoid suspicion.
Because he stayed continuously, the hotel also calculated the long-term price for him, which was just over 100,000 Hong Kong dollars a month, which was about half cheaper than the daily rent. (Gu Kun didn't know this, and he didn't deliberately seek a discount.
, the hotel took the initiative to give him a discount)
After sitting for a while in a promotional tea restaurant on the top floor of a shopping mall in Central, looking at the scenery outside, Gu Kun's cell phone suddenly rang. It was Liang Jinsong calling.
Gu Kun quickly picked up the answer: "Old Liang, is there any trouble in opening a position? Or has the market changed?"
His first reaction was that something had happened to the Thai baht business.
Unfortunately, he didn't completely guess it right.
Liang Jinsong's tone was quite relaxed: "There has indeed been a slight change in opening a position. There have been a lot of large orders floating around in the past two days. We have to speed up a bit. But the problem is not big and the total cost will not increase by more than 2%."
I want to remind you, have you paid attention to the new land policy announced by Chief Dong yesterday? Will the scale of the land that will be sold and auctioned this weekend? Will the authorities really sell at least 150 hectares of public land this year? The guarantee announced by the Chief
The housing plan is 85,000 units! Much more than your previous estimate of "at least 50,000 units."
Gu Sheng, your prediction is really amazing. Today I saw that many people in the circle are spreading rumors, and many friends from the entertainment industry who I met at the cocktail party want to ask you through me, whether it is time to
Get rid of some houses that are easy to get stuck."
When Gu Kun heard this, he couldn't help but sneer.
The Thai baht crisis has not officially broken out yet, but the housing price trend in Xiangjiang has taken some action first.
This is also in line with the rhythm of the three fires of new officials when they take office. After returning, they always have to improve people's livelihood and solve the most painful points in people's lives, so as to appear peaceful and peaceful.
It's just that the auction scale of a mere 150 hectares of land dares to build 85,000 units of affordable housing, which shows how pitiful the accommodation conditions of Xiangjiang people are - 150 hectares is 1.5 million square meters, divided by 85,000, each unit
The average area is only 17.5 square meters.
Of course, the floor area ratio of high-rise buildings is generally very high. Especially in Xiangjiang, people like to build pigeon towers without considering the distance between buildings and lighting, so it is easy to have a floor area ratio of more than 3 times.
But even if multiplied by the floor area ratio of 3.0, the average unit is only 52 square meters, which is really pitiful if placed in the mainland.
Just because before the return, the Governor-General of Brittany could only sell 50 hectares of land per year, so in comparison, the 150 hectares a year after the return has tripled in an instant.
Historically, in another two years, the peak sales volume will reach 200 hectares of affordable housing land per year (other non-affordable housing developments are not included in this area), and the annual construction volume will exceed 100,000 units.
For a city with a population of only six to seven million and one to two million households, the supply of new houses equivalent to more than 5% of the total number of households will suddenly increase every year, and housing prices will of course be suddenly suppressed.
After Gu Kun understood the situation clearly, he thanked you: "Thank you for telling me this. I really don't care about the current situation in this regard. However, it is actually useless if I know."
Liang Jinsong couldn't help but be a little surprised on the phone: "Haven't you been staying at the Peninsula Hotel? The shabby house you bought before was just for your car to live in. Now that the house prices have dropped, don't you consider buying one first to settle down?"
After the new land was auctioned, the second-hand housing market generally sold at 95% off that day. Some properties that had been blocked before were sold at 92% off privately. Several celebrities I know who stock up on houses have 92% off.
I want to sell my discounted mansion, but you’re not tempted by it being so much cheaper all of a sudden?”
He came here to report the news, originally he wanted to please the big client and help him solve some minor problems other than entrusted business.
Gu Kun couldn't help but laugh when he heard this: "Why should I be tempted when it's only 92% off? Living in the presidential suite of the Peninsula Hotel only costs more than a hundred thousand a month. If you buy an apartment that reaches the level of this presidential suite, it will have an area of at least 3,000 square feet.
A prime apartment in a prime location costs 20 to 30 million.
With a 92% discount, it's only about HK$2 million cheaper. I think the property market in Hong Kong has not yet recovered enough to absorb the increase in land supply in the long term. In the future, there will be at least hundreds or even tens of millions of houses like this.
There is room for price reduction. Anyway, I have only lived in Xiangjiang for a few months at most in the past two years. I would rather spend 500,000 to stay in a hotel than buy a house to live in."
Gu Kun's words really shocked Liang Jinsong.
Is this Mr. Gu so unfavorable about the prospects of the Xiangjiang property market?
It turned out that Gu Kun was willing to spend 4 million to buy a Ferrari, but he was only willing to spend 1 million to buy a junk house for the car to live in. The guests who attended Boss Yang's dinner that day were deeply impressed, and many people began to really doubt the future of the property market.
.
And today, it is even more outrageous for him to "see the price reduction of 2 million for a 3,000-square-foot high-end apartment and still not be moved, and would rather spend another 500,000 to stay in a hotel than to buy a house that he can live in in Xiangjiang."
The matter itself is not a big deal, but if Gu Kun is really proven to be an investment god-level expert in the future, his words and deeds will have a great impact on the market.
Just like if Buffett lives in a certain city for a long time and would rather spend a lot of money on hotels all year round than buy a house, then the houses in that city will definitely suffer a heavy setback - it doesn't matter if he just needs it, whether Buffett buys it or not, he should buy it if he just needs it.
You have to buy it, but speculators will definitely be affected and squeeze out the water to speculate elsewhere.
"I know what you mean. Since you insist, I won't persuade you. However, I will still help you keep an eye on the market. If a friend offers a special offer and gives you a chance, I will let you know."
Liang Jinsong said and hung up the phone.
Afterwards, he did not deliberately spread the news about Gu Kun's words and deeds, but there was no airtight wall in the world. As long as Gu Kun stayed at the Peninsula Hotel, there would definitely be acquaintances who noticed this and would be curious to inquire.
And if a friend comes to ask about this, Liang Jinsong will not hide it.
Within a few days, remarks about Gu Kun's special hobbies spread among a small circle of friends mainly in the Hong Kong entertainment circle.
Just because Gu Kun's prestige in terms of investment vision has not yet been established, everyone just treats it as a gossip joke and doesn't take it seriously. Many people also sneer at Gu Kun, saying that it is sensationalism and performance art.
Unfortunately, these cynicisms did not last for a few days.
In the middle of August, the Thai baht market showed obvious fluctuations, and the final frantic buying and opening of large sums of money had reached the undisguised sprint stage.
The Thai authorities' US dollar foreign exchange reserves were quickly squeezed to a dangerous critical point.
On August 22, a "black" Friday, Thailand's Foreign Exchange Administration finally officially announced that it would abandon the binding exchange rate system between the Thai baht and the US dollar.
There are no US dollars to exchange for international hot money.
On the day he announced his resignation, Gu Kun had slept in, but was woken up by Liang Jinsong's phone call in bed.
Liang Jinsong's tone could not hide his excitement: "Gu Sheng, the Thai baht's abandonment is bound to the exchange rate of the US dollar! It fell 7% in just a few seconds after the market opened! You added 5 times the leverage, and now you have earned back your principal.
That’s one-third of the price! Unfortunately, you are buying options that can only be delivered in three to six months, and you can’t close your position now.”
Gu Kun was also excited, but after all, he was somewhat prepared, and his tone was very calm: "It has just started to fall, so why rush to close the position? Thailand's export growth rate was 18% the year before last, and last year's export growth rate was zero. Based on this trend, the Thai baht fell back two
It’s normal in Chengdu.”
Liang Jinsong quickly admitted his mistake: "Yes, yes, I was wrong. It's only six or seven points. Of course, there is no need to ship. But I am also afraid of long nights and dreams, and I will not be able to catch the lowest level to close the short sale. According to the current momentum, even if it falls,
At 20%, it won’t take more than a few days, maybe a week at most.”
In fact, Liang Jinsong guessed wrong again.
It didn't just take less than a week to drop 20%, it actually happened in one day.
During the day, everyone was staring at the trading screen. The panicked sheep were still waiting and watching, and they did not dare to take action.
The exchange rate of the Thai baht against the U.S. dollar fell by 7% at the beginning of the market, to nearly 10% by noon, and then suddenly jumped two points, jumping to 12%.
The foreign exchange market is very different from the stock market. It can be traded 24 hours a day, and there are no market breaks or closings, so you have to keep an eye on it all the time. By the evening of August 22, the final decline on the first day after abandoning the position was fixed at
An exaggerated 18%.
In other words, within one day, the Thai baht fell from 25 baht to 1 US dollar to 30.5 baht to 1 US dollar.
Gu Kun calculated the floating profit on his account.
If the position can be closed at this time, under his 5 times leverage, his principal of 400 million US dollars has become 760 million, making a profit of 360 million (excluding agency commissions and taxes).